KGB Update and Discussion

[Aginor]

3720 BC:

Another 333 increase in soldiers; this one is accompanied by someone passing us at 8k in soldiers.

2 score increases: Vox and Sara.

Sara started at 3k - they cannot be the solution here. Sara went domestic (Fishing/Myst). Either is theoretically possible, as if they are the 12 in research from turn 1 they can get to Myst before us. (6*12 = 72 = enough for Myst.) Or, if they're the 10, Fishing should finish up now. Recall that Sara is a possible water civ (along with AC).

Vox appears to have grown, and this appears to be the reason for their score increase, so they do not have appeared to have popped tech. Testing indicates that pop growth in the capital appears to modify score similarly to a tech during Ancient (6/7 steps of progression), and we know that Sara cannot have grown, so we can safely hang growth on Vox.

Other possibility: 2 Warriors produced by initial teams producing 2 hammers per turn. Banana was already at 7k with Mining, a Warrior then puts them at 8k. This strikes me as the only consistent conclusion.

Further conclusions can be derived from this proposition on team production (ie: the 4/2/x is an initial founder, and one of the initial founders apparently hit the jackpot and founded on a Plains Hill). I'll be back tonight with more detailed analysis, and attempt to hang some production totals on teams based on what we know up to this point.

Now, growth. Demographics indicates that the team that grew got SCREWED royally on their second tile to be worked. Max food is 6. Max hammers is 2. Max commerce is 12, average is 10.

The team (Vox) that grew therefore went from 5/1/10 or 5/1/12 to 6/2/10, 6/2/11 or 6/2/12. In other words, they picked up a 1/1/0, 1/1/1 or 1/1/3 tile. Vox cannot have picked up a 1/1/3, as max commerce is still 12.

So what in the world is going on here? Most times they should have a 2/1/0 in the initial radius if they founded on the initial spot; a 1/2/0 should dominate a 1/1/1 in the AI's eyes, and they'd have a 1/2/0 given the Forest algorithm. To summarize - what the hell?

OK, so Sara or AC is the 12. Leaves me with an ugly suspicion that Sara got to Myst first here.

More thoughts on this later.

[Blake]

Hummm. With Vox it may be that the most probable conclusion is they have set the city to "Maximize Commerce". I otherwise don't see how they couldn't have a forest and found the first turn.

Other possibility: 2 Warriors produced by initial teams producing 2 hammers per turn. Banana was already at 7k with Mining, a Warrior then puts them at 8k. This strikes me as the only consistent conclusion.

Oh? There has been time for this...? I thought they'd still be one turn off. I have an absolute devil of a time with alternative temporal frames of reference...


Well it does look like religion is a total crapshoot. I think we should go for it anyway because our research isn't too tight.

The main question is:
Meditiation vs Polytheism?
I was originally inclined to go with Meditation but Polytheism leads to Monotheism which has its charms, such as organized religion which would be extremely useful for us, and it's borderline (no ... not borderline... is) exploitive with pop rushing and no-one understands exploiting that better than me.... with spi, we could make such nice use of it!
On the other hand meditaiton is cheaper and leads us eventually to Philosophy.

Maybe we should put it to a vote or something...

Meditation vs Polytheism vs Hunting Gambit vs Forget Religion Entirely...

[DeepO]

Originally posted by Blake
such as organized religion which would be extremely useful for us, and it's borderline (no ... not borderline... is) exploitive with pop rushing and no-one understands exploiting that better than me.... with spi, we could make such nice use of it!

Care to elaborate on that one, Blake?

Meditation vs Polytheism vs Hunting Gambit vs Forget Religion Entirely...

If we weren't behind in commerce, that would be a no brainer: meditation right away, switch to Poly the moment we see it fall. Now, I'm not so sure... but still I favour that path, as in case we lose that race, we can go for archery asap. My second choice would be Poly, but it almost certainly will make a mess of our defense in case we've got to push onwards to Mono.

I'd change my opinion if the hut turns out to contain masonry, though.

DeepO

[Blake]

Originally posted by DeepO
Care to elaborate on that one, Blake?

Basically as per my thread in the strategy forum.

Anyway, running organized religion it's possible to get 2-for-1 deals, of sorts. Actually you can get these deals regardless but the windows are much smaller without org.rel.

For example with our temples, if there are EXACTLY 19 hammers invested, we only need to kill 1 population to complete the temple, and we get 14 overflow on the next build.

Whipping at 18 hammers kills 2 population for exactly the same deal (temple complete + 14 overflow), whipping at 20 hammers kills 1 pop and gives no overflow. There's a catch: Good luck getting 19 hammers when hammers come 2 by 2 thanks to the +100% bonus! (see how this bug slipped through testing?). We need a +125% bonus, which turns 4 hammers into 9 (something like 9+6+4 = 19) - the only +25% bonuses are org.rel and forges.

But running Org.Rel with the temple there is a much wider window of oppurtunity from 11 to 19 hammers, where we kill 1 pop for 90 hammers, of which we get about 8-12 overflow (60 is used to complete the build, 30 overflows, it's then halved to correct the +100% trait bonus).

Now taking the example of a granary.

Without org.rel there are no sweetspots - we always get 30 hammers for each pop killed.

Running Org.Rel, if we whip between 22 and 29 shields we kill 1 pop and get 60 hammers, of which some will be overflow. 60 hammers for 1 pop - that's a bargain.

Basically, the deal is, with precision abuse of whipping, especially with Org.Rel, we can get some nice hammer freebies in the form of overflow - basically free skirmishers or a head start on the next build.

This stuff is pretty time consuming, I don't really do it much in real games. But a game like this is perfect for it.

Monotheism is a bit out of our path but I think we'll be able to make use of Org.Rel all game long (being spi and all). Also picking up Monotheism and Priesthood both will discount Monarchy, Monarchy is a cheapish tech so it's not a huge discount, but it's enough to reduce the real cost of monotheism to be similar to like meditation.

Now IF we do go for monotheism it should only be after archery, pottery, bronze working and maybe animal husbandary (I like the mined sheep tho), but before Monarchy or Code of Laws.

[Arrian]

Question:

Do we have any interest in trying the alternative CS slingshot that uses a prophet? All we really need is a temple for the priest, and to avoid masonry. By the time we're even thinking about researching masonry (in other words, we've got lots of other stuff to deal with first), we will know whether or not there is stone/marble nearby.

If we want to go that route, giving up on the Oracle, then Polytheism seems to be the better choice (agreed that early Org. Rel. would be nice).

Let us vote.

-Arrian

[Aginor]

3680 BC:

On pulling up the save, my first response was to think the immortal words of Lloyd Henreid in _The Stand_ -

"Oh **** we're all ****ed!"

Why, you ask? Take a look at the demographics for the turn. NOT good news for our quest for religion.

3720 BC production totals (post-Vox growth) were:

Food: 6,5,5,5,5,4
Hammers: 2,2,2,2,2,1
Commerce: 12,11,11,10,10,10. This one is a bit complex - it's derived from the fact that we dropped to 4th on the list at 10 production and that Vox cannot smoothly grow from 10 commerce (which they must have had) to 12 commerce. They would jump to 13.

Therefore: Horde was still running 5,2,10 and Vox had moved to 6,2,11. Previously they were 5,1,10 and started working a 1,1,1 tile. As Blake noted, presumably they had the max-commerce governor on.

Current rival production totals:

Food: 5,5,5,5,5,4
Hammers: 3,2,2,2,2,1
Commerce: 13,12,11,10,10,10

That tells us some VERY bad things about Vox. We now know that Vox was a 5-1-10 from day one, and that this is how they grew in 3720. We further know that they are now 5-3-13 - which suggests that they are working a 0-2-3 tile in order to utterly max out commerce. Clearly they're suiciding a religion in order to beat Sara, mortgaging their growth. Still, it adds up as to why they went religion in the first place, as they could be certain they had it in the bag in 4000 even at 10 commerce; they knew when they founded that the two preceding teams were on 4 food and soft commerce, so they'd be the first to grow and could outrace them, and they also knew that they could go 13 commerce at size 2 if threatened and win any race to Meditation that way.

This then further tells us that either AC or Sara was the 12 commerce civ initially due to Financial (unless you care to suppose some outrageously unlikely circumstances), and that therefore either Banana or Mercs is probably (but not certainly) the 11. Either Banana or Mercs (or both) foreswore growth in order to get a Worker on the ground ASAP. I address that little riddle below and conclude that assuming rationality for one of our opponents going forward may be...unwise.

Also, it appears that the food box is 22, so I was a turn off on earlier growth calculations. *Vox* is the initial 5-1-10 and grew accordingly last turn; however, it appears that I lucked out and someone missed a growth cycle THIS turn. A rival at 4 food/turn through 3920 would have 6 surplus food by then; then moving to 5/turn and needing 16 more to grow yields 6 turns (3880, 3840, 3800, 3760, 3720, 3680 = now). They should have grown by the end of THIS turn and this would show in our top 5 cities list and the score; however, this did not take place. We know that the algorithm works this way because Vox was showing as having grown last turn with a 22 food box (which requires 8 turns at 5 food to fill, 3720 being turn 8). So someone still went Worker first.

Also note that a Warrior was NOT popped last turn; 1000 of the shift in military can be attributed to Vox's growth to size 2. It is possible, but highly improbable, that Banana happened to pop a Warrior on the same turn that they would have completed it if they were running 2 hammers from turn 1.

*Important note: Many of the production conclusions below depend on Banana having BUILT their Warrior rather than having popped it. It is possible that some of these statements will need to be revised in 3600 BC if Banana does NOT grow and the Mercs DO.*

OK, so from all of the above at 3680 BC we logically KNOW the following about our rivals:

Mercs: 5 food/turn (derived from the proposition of Banana producing Warrior, not popping it, and Banana's lack of growth, see under Banana as well). No research to date. Went Worker first! (again, since Banana spat out a Warrior and no one grew).

Vox: 5-3-13. Grown to size 2. Researced a civvy tech which is almost certainly Mysticism, given that it took 7 turns to complete and that Blake has demonstrated that all civs get 1 magic mystery beaker from the ether per turn. (Minimum research for Vox by 3760 was 3x9 + 4x10 = 67, +7 magic beakers = 74 = Vox researched Myst, as Ag is too expensive and Fishing would have been done. Started with Hunting; while they could have popped something, most probably they researched a tech in 3760, and that tech would have been Mysticism).

Banana: 4-2-10. Has researched Mining. (Only way to account for the 8000 soldiers team.) Has built a Warrior (assuming away popping it from a hut), requiring a 2-hammer team. Is producing 4 food/turn (or they would have grown this turn, and they CANNOT be Worker-first). MUST be 10 commerce given the 'beakers from the ether' demonstration - given that it took 7 turns to get Mining done, they cannot have commerce above 10. Otherwise they'd have had it a turn prior.

AC: 5 food/turn. Popped either Hunting or AH. Researching something costly. Could conceivably be the Wheel if they're at 10 commerce (11 beakers x 7 turns = 77 = not yet). If nothing comes up next turn, bank on BW.

Sara: 5 food/turn. Researched civvy tech which must be Ag or Myst. Either way they're above 10 commerce to complete it in the time frame they did. Cannot distinguish between 11-12 (although they'd have had to be 12 for Ag) given the 'beakers from the ether' demonstration of an extra beaker/turn for civs.

Horde: 5/2/10, no research to date.

Turns when we will know new things (assuming proper above derivations):

3640 BC: AC and Sara should grow this turn (assuming they didn't go Worker-first).

3600 BC: Banana should grow this turn. Horde should grow this turn.

I'd like to check the new food box and verify that it's 33 food to grow to 3 before I begin drawing conclusions about Vox's next growth cycle.

Left to be accounted for in adversary production:

Food: all squared away!
Hammers: 2,2,1
Commerce: 12,11,10

I am leaning towards the following explanation on the remaining data (which cannot be proven, but which seems to be the most probable scenario):

Mercs is 5-1-11 and is working an Oasis. I further suppose that they have a start light on special resources and are researching BW in hopes of catching Copper to boost hammers (and find the Copper). Their overall master plan appears to be: Get a Worker, catch Copper, mine it, outproduce everyone in hammers. Worker first seems INCREDIBLY reckless given that they start with a Scout...but nothing else seems to fit the data.

Sara is 5-2-12, is on a Plains hill, researched Myst, and is working an Oasis.

AC is 5-2-10, is on a Plains hill, is working a river food special and is researching something unknown.

[Blake]

Sara will have some difficulty researching fishing, given that it's one of their starting techs . So their other choice of non-combat tech is Agriculture.

I believe we can say something about AC.
They must be researching something more expensive than Mysticism. This is almost certainly Bronze Working, altough The Wheel is also possible. Soldiers should tell us more when their score bumps.

[Aginor]

Originally posted by Blake
Sara will have some difficulty researching fishing, given that it's one of their starting techs

$*&%...I keep thinking Sara is China and AC is Liz...corrected. HEAVY edit in the above post, as I was able to deduce a lot more than I thought I could in the first cut. However, note our mistake in 3720 BC - 1000 of the 2000 soldier shift in that turn can be accounted for by Vox growing to size 2, and we need to account for that in future calculations. This opens the door to the ugly possibility of Banana popping its Warrior rather than building it - this is highly improbable and the Warrior build fits the available data. However, it also leads to concluding some highly risk tolerant behavior from Mercs, so it may well be that Banana popped it. We'll know more in 3600 BC when Banana or Mercs grows; if it's Mercs, I'll have to make some significant changes to the production conclusions.

Edit: Thread-topping summary post updated for 3680 BC, if you just want the executive summary and are not interested in how I got there. Also note further edit on this post.

[Mudhut]

Where are Vox?

I've been thinking a bit about the trade route we have with Vox. What does it tell us about their location?

I decided to investigate using the worldbuilder. It's a hotseat save, and is attached in case anyone else is interested.

All cities in the save are on the same river system, and I have set up our visible tiles to test different situations. From our city:
1. We have a visible path along river tiles to within Persia's cultural borders. We have a trade route with Persia.
2. We have a visible path that is not along river tiles to Rome. We have no trade route with Rome.
3. We don't have any visible path to India (control condition). We have no trade route with India.

These are all pretty obvious, expected results. But the next ones were interesting to me:

4. We have a "shared" visible path along river tiles to Spain. That is, we can see half the tiles, she can see half the tiles, and we overlap in the middle. Neither of us can see the other's location. We have no trade route with Spain.

This was a surprise to me -> I guess I had always assumed that the game would "add up" the explored regions for both teams to work out if you could trade. It doesn't do this -> one team has to know the entire path between cultural borders.

5. We have a visible path along river tiles to one square outside China's borders. We do have a trade route with China.

This was a really interesting discovery, because it allows for a scenario in which we don't know that we have completed the trade route to someone else. We explore (or map hut pop) up until one square away from them and the route is completed. [It can't be more than that, or it comes under the "shared visible path" that we have with Spain.]

Now, you may recall that our trade route showed up the turn after we popped the hut giving us a map. So between turns (including our map hut as between turns) one of us got a complete shown route to the other. Obviously, neither of us has actually reached the other with a unit.

Our only two possibilities are therefore:
-Vox popped a map hut the same turn as we did, and therefore know exactly where we are. [I am 99% confident that cultural borders show in a map hut pop]
OR
-Vox cultural borders are adjacent to one of our visible river tiles.

Either of which is a relatively worrying thought, yes?

Anyway, I'm posting here in case there is an error in my analysis. Speak up quick if you find it.

[notyoueither]

Good work, Mudhut!

[vulture]

So worst case scenario is that (given that Vox have to be on the same river as us) Vox's cultural borders are just outside our field of view, putting 8 moves between our capitals. Best case is that they popped a map from a hut 8 tiles away from our borders, and moved 7 turns in the right direction to get there, putting them 15 moves away. Can huts give info maps covering more than 8 tiles from the hut?

Most likely they are 10-12 tiles to the east, along the river. That's close enough to be annoying.

[Arrian]

Ack. Do we recall grog?

-Arrian

[vulture]

Originally posted by Arrian
Ack. Do we recall grog?

-Arrian

Aye, I recall him very fondly. What noble sacrifice. What a great opera...

Oh, you mean to guard EotS.... what's the shortest time it would take us to rush a warrior at home?

[Hot Mustard]

Grog is 2 turns from the EotS now, or 6 turns if he returns after popping the northern hut. Warrior will be built in 6 or 7 turns.

Minimum notice we would have of approaching Vox unit would be 2 turns (3-3 of EotS). Keep in mind that they are ahead of us in turn order.

The conservative play would be to have Grog stay precisely where he is, so that he is able to return to EotS should the worst occur. When EotS production has 2 turns remaining on the Warrior, then we could resume Grog's march to the northern hut.

The stay-the-course play would have Grog continue to the hut and then swing west to the other hut. This would leave EotS exposed to attack until the Warrior production is down to 2 turns - 4 or 5 turns.

Note that having Grog return to EotS after popping the northern hut would not reduce the window of exposure.

[vulture]

Can we not emergency-whip the warrior once we hit size 2? Not played this game enough to know the mechanics all that well unfortunately (having a baby will do that to you...).

If Vox is a) very close or b) quite close but knows exactly where we are, then I'm all in favour of keeping Grog close to EotS until we are certain we can geta warrior there before an attacker can romp in.