Ways PAL or Banana could win the game.

[Zeviz]

This is a response to PAL players giving up on the game. I am not posting it in public because I do want to see RB victory, but let's come up with possible scenarios for PAL or Banana victory.

There are several options:

1. Banana switches sides and signs a full alliance with PAL. If they do this, we are gone, because they can land their main armies anywhere, and harass all of our coastline. This also makes either team equally likely to win, depending on how they split western continent.

2. Banana signs an alliance with PAL while honoring current commitments to RB. (Our only formal deals are a NAP until t190, or t200, or something like that, and Education for Astronomy deal. The PP for Chemistry was discussed, but Banana could backout, since we haven't even started researching PP and nothing was formally signed.) This will lead to a much closer game, because we'll have a lot of time to recover our economy, while Banana and PAL tech to Rifles and build up massive SoDs.

2b. As above, but PAL could invade us right away, while Banana goes for the Barb continent. This utilizes PAL's immediate military superiority, but might be less appealing for Banana.

What would be our chances of victory in the scenarios above? And are there any other options for one of our opponents to win?

[sooooo]

I don't think it has to be a PAL-banana alliance. PAL could still win by killing banana and rabbits quickly with their curassiers. They are still no. 1 in GNP and soldiers even if they have lost their capital.

[Sullla]

Well, I had posted this in the Metagaming thread last week:

In Diplomacy terms, there's been a reversal of the board leader from RB to PAL. PAL responds by working the diplomacy angle HARD with Banana. They claim that they never really wanted to fight at all - Banana started the war - and point to the many years of peaceful cooperation they shared. Why should PAL and Banana fight to the death, letting RB waltz to an easy victory? Donovan realizes that staying allied with RB means that the best possible outcome for him is a distant second-place finish. If he sides with PAL, he lets them batter their head against RB, and then backstab at the opportune moment. This represents his best chance for victory, so he takes it. Banana signs peace with PAL and declares war on Realms Beyond!

Suddenly RB's planned Astronomy trade never goes through. Instead, Banana sends Astronomy to PAL, and PAL gifts Steel to Banana. The remnants of Imperio are running max cash, gifting their income each turn to the PAL/Banana team, who use it to fuel 100% deficit research. Using Banana's galleons and some gifting back and forth, PAL and Banana transport their armies to the eastern half of the RB continent. Small raiding parties striking from galleons tear up our fishing nets and drop off armies in RB's back lines; with no ability to counter-punch with their own frigates and galleons, RB is helpless to stop the eastern team from striking where and how they want. PAL maintains their tech lead, reaches Rifling first, flips over to Nationhood and starts drafting. Now RB's one ace in the hole (an endless supply of drafted Oromos) has been neutralized. All that RB can do is react to blow after blow and minimize the damage as they fall further and further behind...

Now the odds are that we will win the game, as we are unquestionably in a very strong position. Still, I do believe that it's by no means a done deal. PAL's willingness to give up the ship without even trying simply baffles me. As sooooo said, with their powerful military they have a real chance to run over Banana before we can do much in the way of intervening.

I would really like to see this game played out to its conclusion, win or lose.

[darrelljs]

1. Banana switches sides and signs a full alliance with PAL.

0%

Banana signs an alliance with PAL while honoring current commitments to RB.

This is possible but Banana would never do it in a way that left us out to dry, and PAL would still lose the game.

Darrell

[Zeviz]

...
This is possible but Banana would never do it in a way that left us out to dry, and PAL would still lose the game.

Darrell

All they'd have to do is sign a NAP with PAL, and let the two of us kill each other's armies while they settle new continent. Nobody could object to that course of action. (After all, we gave a similar surprize to Imperio just a few turns ago.)

And I am curious how a scenario like this would play out. RB would have to deal with stagnant economy reminiscent of the economic recovery adventures, while PAL would have to take advantage of their military superiority before we caught up, and Banana would have to carefully maintain balance of power by trading with whoever was in danger of losing, while expanding to become as strong as the leaders.

[darrelljs]

I think that scenario has a 0% chance of happening, but YMMV .

Darrell