The war has started.

[T-hawk]

Afraid I've never delved into the formulas for war weariness.

[sunrise089]

Okay, turn 137 military sit-rep post-Templar moves, pre-Imperio moves.

North

Objective: Defend Cape Town, keep Imperio stack in check.

*Imperio has moved their stack back into the fog. They have left 6 longbows and a pike in Chichen Itza. This actually makes their stack much less formidable if they are so bold as to send it around through Templar lands.

*Next turn I want to pull our main stack to the tile 1S of Cape Town.

*I've swapped our build to a mace (see "Center" below)

Center

Objective: Pressure Templars if possible, defend our road network.

*Units on "pressure Templars" duty: One shock pikeman. One piece of advice - shock is not the ideal promo if a melee unit has two promotions and is sitting in a forest. Woodsman II is an extremely strong promo and should be used instead.

*Units on "defend the road network" duty: 1 horse archer, 2 chariots. The chariots are not well-suited to this task, and should rejoin the Cape Town stack. Strength-4 units are only suitable when attacking catapulted units on flat ground.

*Units threatening the road network: 1 crossbow, 1 horse archer, 1 axeman. I would like a road-defense task force of the horse archer already on station, a second horse archer, and a mace. I'm building the mace in Cape Town right now, and we should send the first available horse archer down to the road network as well. We can possibly send a horse archer from Cape Town (depends on possible attack on Constantinople or the Templar stack outside Pink Dot, see below). Ideally these units will stand on the road between the three peak tiles.

South

Objective: Defend Pink Dot, neutralize Templar's stack, eventually move in to pressure Templars.

*Current breakdown of forces:
-->RB - 2 maces, 2 pikes, 2 cats, 1 horse archer (44 base strength)
-->Templars - 1 crossbow, 1 horse archer, 1 sword, 4 cats, 3 chariots, 1 spear (54 base strength)

*Breakdown of forces on turn 140:
-->RB - 5 maces, 2 pikes, 2 cats, 1 horse archer (68 base strength)
-->Templars - 2 crossbows, 1 horse archer, 2 swords, 4 cats, 3 chariots, 1 spear. (66 base strength)

*Note in either scenario our maces have odds versus every unit except the crossbow even without catapults.

*Attack plan:
-->Turn 138 - Workers road the tile 1S of Cape Town (yes 1S, not 1SW). 2 Pikes stand on the workers, 2 maces stand in the forest adjacent to the Templar stack. Sparrow the mace finishes healing.
-->Turn 139 - Workers move into the forest tile (already covered by maces). Charsi the mace finishes healing, and joins the other units 1SW of Pink Dot and out of site of Templars. Templars should withdraw their stack at this point.
-->Turn 140 - Workers road the forest, and then we cat and attack via the grassland 1S of Pink Dot, the forest, and then against the hill. The main question will be whether the two cats will reduce the Templar crossbows by more than one base strength each. If so, our five maces should kill both crossbows, the horse archer, and 2 cats. If the swords have suffered enough collateral our pikes may have odds on them as well. Templars will only have 3 chariots to counter-attack, and three chariots can't kill Pink's two fortified archers on a hill behind cultural defense. Counterattacking our units isn't much better, since we'll be in a forest.

*Question: If we slave the mace in Cape Town this turn can we get another unit by turn 140? For extra security we probably want to do some combination of getting an extra unit out of Cape Town, upgrading an archer to a crossbow, or bringing down horse archers from the Cape Town area (they can reach the tile in time if they move out next turn).

Possible Attack on Constantinople

Objective: Despite the double-move rule, try to get a city on the cheap.

*The 2 chariots moved into the forest have thrown this plan into a small delay, BUT I still think this plan has merit. The main problem is it weaken both our Cape Town defense stack and our road network defenders AND makes the units unavailable to hit the Templar stack ourside Pink Dot (see above). Basically:
-->On turn 138 Charasmatic the cow-pillaging horse archer heals and the two chariots move back towards Cape Town.
-->On turn 139 all 8 of our mounted units move to the desert hill north of Jericho.
-->On turn 140 they move to the tile 2-tiles from both Jericho and Constantinople.
-->On turn 141 our units can hit either city. The three visible spears in Jericho cannot defend both cities, so Templars may be caught too thin.

I would love comments on the relative merit of such an attack versus the stronger defensive posture we maintain if we don't attack or using the 2-movers from Cape Town to assist with the turn 140 Templar stack attack.

[Zeviz]

Thanks for the detailed breakdown of the forces.

I'd prefer to use 2-movers to wipe out Templar stack. (Preferably keeping them far away from the stack to avoid detection until they strike.) All Templars have to do to foil our attack plans is to bring in and/or whip two pikes at Constantinopole. And removing all our mounted units would make them unavailable to defend Cape Town, significantly reducing our ability to destroy Imperio's stack.

PS I agree with moving Cape Town stack out of the city.

[Dreylin]

Well there are two reasons for Imperio to move the stack out of the city:

1) They are moving the stack down to pass through Templars' lands and support them

2) They want us to believe they are doing that to draw our forces out of the way and then they'll strike Cape Town.

(Of course there's always the wildcard #3: they are moving to attack Templars while they are distracted with us)

TBH, I don't think we know enough about Imperio to assess which of 1 or 2 they are pursuing.

However ... we know that they have used Spies to attack our territory, so there's a good chance they are using them to scout us out. Therefore, they are likely to assume that we are doing the same and therefore they cannot assume that they can fool us. (wait, this is getting circular)

Actually, I'm not sure that there is a point to this at all.

[sunrise089]

I estimate the chances Imperio is moving to attack Templars at around 0%.

They're probably trying to free up a little more flexibility (like us, their units are just as effective one tile behind their city) and take the small chance we will be fooled into attacking.

If they actually try to move the stack south they will face problems. Going towards Airstrip One is no different than Cape Town since we can move our Cape Town army to intercept in just a few turns. Going on Pink Dot is the better play, but we have good enough visibility to rush our 2-movers down to Cape Town, slave more defenders, and send our own cats and strength-8 units to kill Chichen Itza.

[mostly-harmless]

Without more map info from our spy, we cannot decide on the Constantinople move, especially as the vanished Imperio stack can make it to Constantinople or Jericho by T141.

I am not a big fan of slaving Jericho. It takes ages to grow and it has no food in the box and no granary (?).

The attack plan on Templars looks interesting.

mh

[Sullla]

*Attack plan:
-->Turn 138 - Workers road the tile 1S of Cape Town (yes 1S, not 1SW). 2 Pikes stand on the workers, 2 maces stand in the forest adjacent to the Templar stack. Sparrow the mace finishes healing.
-->Turn 139 - Workers move into the forest tile (already covered by maces). Charsi the mace finishes healing, and joins the other units 1SW of Pink Dot and out of site of Templars. Templars should withdraw their stack at this point.
-->Turn 140 - Workers road the forest, and then we cat and attack via the grassland 1S of Pink Dot, the forest, and then against the hill. The main question will be whether the two cats will reduce the Templar crossbows by more than one base strength each. If so, our five maces should kill both crossbows, the horse archer, and 2 cats. If the swords have suffered enough collateral our pikes may have odds on them as well. Templars will only have 3 chariots to counter-attack, and three chariots can't kill Pink's two fortified archers on a hill behind cultural defense. Counterattacking our units isn't much better, since we'll be in a forest.

I just want to say, I love this attack plan. I really don't think Templars will see this coming, and we have an excellent chance of wiping out most of their stack at small losses to ourselves.

With regards to the potential move on Jericho/Constantinople, I think it's a little premature for that idea. If this were a double-elimination game, then yes, I would go for it. But seeing as it's not, I don't think the gamble is worth it. Let's have a couple of those horse archers join the Pink stack and be ready to hit the Templars on T140, as outlined above. That seems like a better use of the units: kill off the Templars' armed forces, and only then go for the juggular against their cities.

FYI, my best guess is that Imperio has merely moved their stack one tile back into the fog to try and bait us into attack at Cape Town. I have difficulty believing that they would leave Chichen Itza open to be captured by moving their stack in another direction permanently.

I also would like us not to slave Pink Dot for a while. This isn't a MP game where it will be over in a few dozen turns; we still have potentially hundreds of turns to go. We have to keep this city happy and at a decent size to continue to get production out of it. Also keep in mind that we're planning to draft here in maybe as little as 15 turns, and that's going to cause further unhappiness, not to mention war weariness... I think it's a bad idea when we have a mace coming out in 2t which can join in the attack on Templars anyway.

[mostly-harmless]

A couple of questions, sunrise:

*Attack plan:
-->Turn 138 - Workers road the tile 1S of Cape Town (yes 1S, not 1SW). 2 Pikes stand on the workers, 2 maces stand in the forest adjacent to the Templar stack. Sparrow the mace finishes healing.

With only two maces in a forest, Templars might decide to waste a couple of cats against them and then take them out with the Xbow and another unit. This will weaken their hill stack and leave at least one unit exposed in this forest, but we would be down two maces as well. Do you feel two maces are enough?

-->Turn 139 - Workers move into the forest tile (already covered by maces). Charsi the mace finishes healing, and joins the other units 1SW of Pink Dot and out of site of Templars. Templars should withdraw their stack at this point.

Do you mean, if they have sense and see our move coming, they should withdraw? Surely this is not in our interest, as we want to fight the battles on our grounds.

-->Turn 140 - Workers road the forest, and then we cat and attack via the grassland 1S of Pink Dot, the forest, and then against the hill. The main question will be whether the two cats will reduce the Templar crossbows by more than one base strength each. If so, our five maces should kill both crossbows, the horse archer, and 2 cats. If the swords have suffered enough collateral our pikes may have odds on them as well. Templars will only have 3 chariots to counter-attack, and three chariots can't kill Pink's two fortified archers on a hill behind cultural defense. Counterattacking our units isn't much better, since we'll be in a forest.

How many workers do we need to instant-road a forest? Two or three?

mh

[Sullla]

With only two maces in a forest, Templars might decide to waste a couple of cats against them and then take them out with the Xbow and another unit. This will weaken their hill stack and leave at least one unit exposed in this forest, but we would be down two maces as well. Do you feel two maces are enough?

I can answer this one. Maces in a forest will barely take any damage from suicide cat attacks. You're looking at strength 5 versus effective strength 12 there, and the collateral damage will be minor with only two units defending. Templars would have to suicide basically all of their cats to pull this off, and then where does that leave them? If they want to eliminate half their stack to kill two of our units, I say let them do so. Maybe we stick one horse archer and one pike in there as well, to defend against cats/crossbows/mounted units, but I don't see any need for further defenders. The plan is sound from a tactical perspective, trust me.

If someone has time on their hands with the game being down, they can try simming the conflict in the Worldbuilder and see what happens.

Also, it takes 2t to road a forest tile, just like a grassland one. Only the desert/tundra/floodplains tiles take 3t. Templars are fools for not occupying the forest tile south of Pink already, but if they refuse to do so, we'll take the ground ourselves and then make them pay for it.

[Kylearan]

Hi,

sunrise, thanks for the detailed report and your thoughts!

I'm in full support of the attack plan against the stack in the south. Time to take some action in this stalemate. It has minimal risk and huge rewards. This war is about waiting for the other team to make a mistake and exploiting it, and by leaving the forest unoccupied they have made one such mistake.

I wouldn't do the attack on the cities though - that's a bit too risky.

-Kylearan

[sooooo]

Sunrise, I really like your plan at pink dot. Not sure about the Constantinople plan - need to see what is in the city.

The chariots are not well-suited to this task, and should rejoin the Cape Town stack. Strength-4 units are only suitable when attacking catapulted units on flat ground.

But templars have an axeman threatening the central road. Templars are the only civ with axemen, that's why I sent them south.

[darrelljs]

I admit I have not read through the plan itself, but I definitely favor siezing the initiative if the opportunity presents itself.

Darrell

[sunrise089]

But templars have an axeman threatening the central road. Templars are the only civ with axemen, that's why I sent them south.

You're right Soooo, I just don't see them splitting their units.

Anyways, we'll table the Constantinople plan and go forward with the Kill-Templar-stack plan. I'll send some horse archers down from Cape Town to help out.

The biggest risk isn't them killing our maces in the forest (as Sullla said, combat 1 maces in the forest don't fear cats). Furthermore Templars can't afford to burn their cats. Since we have stronger units than they do they must have cats to threaten our city.

The risk is actually that as soon as we move the maces off the road network Templars move the entire stack to hit Pink Dot. If that happens they'll only have one turn before the maces are back in play, so they'd have to risk hitting 3 maces, 2 pikes, and archers we can upgrade. I don't think they can kill that without bombarding down.

[Sullla]

The risk is actually that as soon as we move the maces off the road network Templars move the entire stack to hit Pink Dot. If that happens they'll only have one turn before the maces are back in play, so they'd have to risk hitting 3 maces, 2 pikes, and archers we can upgrade. I don't think they can kill that without bombarding down.

Can't we avoid this risk by moving the maces onto the forest tile on T139 instead of T138? Or is it more imperative to get them there next turn, to remove any possibility of Templars moving there? I guess it's the latter, right?

Well, I'll defer to your judgment either way, sunrise. If Templars do choose to move their stack off the hill on T139, when our maces are off the road network, I honestly think that's to our benefit.

[sooooo]

You're right Soooo, I just don't see them splitting their units.

Even if they're in a stack, can't the first HA kill or wound the crossbow, then a chariot moves in to kill the axeman.

@Sunrise: When are you planning to play the turn?