The T120 Imperio NAP Expiry Crisis

[mostly-harmless]

I think it kind of autoswitched since the copper for the half finished spear was lost. We need A1 on research for HBR.

mh

[mostly-harmless]

One other thought:
We have a Non-Aggression-Pact with Imperio. I see destroying tile improvement (especially strategic resources) as pretty aggressive.
I think we have plausible Casus Belli on Imperio.

What are the chances to make a preemptive strike against Imperio before T120?
Chichen Itza is only defended by a single Holkan. There is only one 2move unit at Mutal (a Chariot) and their fertile lands west of Mutal (2 x hamlet, iron & gold) lay open for pillaging for a quick Chariot rush. Just an idea.

@Swiss: I did not know that the spy goes back to Mutal. That's good news.

mh

[regoarrarr]

Yeah I was kind of thinking that too - that if we wanted to, we could make a pretty solid argument that they broke the NAP. I'm not sure that we WANT to but if we did, I think we could certainly make the case.

And if we can make a few aggressive (read: successful) moves, Templars would be more likely to join us. As someone pointed out in some thread, from their perspective, they might be more likely to dogpile the civ that is getting the short end

[Dreylin]

I've just gone back down the Imperio contact thread, and confirmed that we don't really have grounds for complaint. As written; the NAP agreement expired on T100 with a 20T buffer period during which neither side could "declare war". While I don't like what they've done, espionage was not specified in the terms of the buffer-period and for them it is a very smart move - especially if they follow-up with cutting our Horses.

We don't really have a leg to stand on, and any complaints will come off as whining imo.

[sunrise089]

I disagree. Spy actions are the same as privateer actions - once you know who ordered the attack it amounts to a declaration of war. One of Imperio's units crossed into our territory, and without consent destroyed part of our land...the fact that they were duplicitous about it doesn't make it any less offensive than if we had just openly declared and pillaged with our galley.

I don't know if I favor a declaration on our part...especially without Templar support of neutrality, but it would certainly serve Imperio right. Truthfully though, other than a certain moral victory stemming from taking the fight to the enemy, we have no reason to declare war before we've built at least a small stack of two-mover anyways. I CAN envision us declaring in a half dozen turns if we have 4 chariots/HAs positioned in Templar land and Imperio pillages our horses.

I also support delaying the Lit gift until we have the metal reconnected. Something like was suggested above: "We would like to honor our promise to supply Literature, but dangerous rogues in the shadows make traveling conditions hazardous...we will need the safety of metal-wielding troops to ensure our scholars' safety" seems perfectly fitting to me.

[ruff_hi]

I also support delaying the Lit gift until we have the metal reconnected. Something like was suggested above: "We would like to honor our promise to supply Literature, but dangerous rogues in the shadows make traveling conditions hazardous...we will need the safety of metal-wielding troops to ensure our scholars' safety" seems perfectly fitting to me.

That sounds 100% fine except that we are dealing with a team that has 'English as their second language' and they would miss the point.

Suggest something like ...

"Sorry - Literature trade delayed ... someone pillaged our copper ... we are reviewing the situation"

... maybe "some low-life pillaged our copper"?

Edit: of course we know it was them ... but we don't need to tell them that we know it was them ... do we?

[sunrise089]

Ok, but then I fear "reviewing the situation" gives the impression we may cancel the trade. I like "Sorry - Literature trade delayed ... someone pillaged our copper ... we will make the trade as soon as our copper is hooked back up."

[mostly-harmless]

We can send the more elaborate message and a short Spanish one. Let them figure out the English message.

mh

[Zeviz]

Considering that we would be agreeing to Literature trade after the copper was pillaged, we have no excuse to hold it back. (And even if copper was pillaged later, we couldn't hold back literature unless our agreement explicitly specified that agreement would be broken if they commit hostile action.) So holding back Literature would be one of the worst mistakes we could make, because it would wreck our reputation with other teams, making future deals much more difficult.

If we break our promise on the Literature deal, it's game over for us.

Similarly, we have no excuse to declare war before turn 120, because, as written, the NAP has already expired and we are just in the "no official declaration of war" period. In fact, I suspect Imperio know English much better than they claim and are using "me no speak English good" as an excuse when they want to slow down negotiations.

[sunrise089]

@Zevis: I think the above post is a bit too strong.

Considering that we would be agreeing to Literature trade after the copper was pillaged, we have no excuse to hold it back. (And even if copper was pillaged later, we couldn't hold back literature unless our agreement explicitly specified that agreement would be broken if they commit hostile action.)

I don't support any assertion that Imperio is morally in the clear for their pillage (and a clear lead-up to war pillage at that). It would be an unkind move for us to hold the trade up, but no team in their right mind would suspect that RB are no longer potential trading allies - they would (I hope) properly realize we're valued allies so long as we are not betrayed.

So holding back Literature would be one of the worst mistakes we could make, because it would wreck our reputation with other teams, making future deals much more difficult.

PAL is the uberwarmonger, but Banana trades with them. Templars are religion knights, but they trade with everyone. Tony was a jerk to all of the other teams, and no one holds it against his team. Imperio pillaged our metal and is probably going to attack us, but we still want to trade with them. PAL lied to us about horses...ditto. People trade when they think the trade makes sense.

Similarly, we have no excuse to declare war before turn 120, because, as written, the NAP has already expired and we are just in the "no official declaration of war" period. In fact, I suspect Imperio know English much better than they claim and are using "me no speak English good" as an excuse when they want to slow down negotiations.

We might not feel it is prudent to declare sooner, but we certainly have an excuse. PAL is gaming the T120 rule by blocking off communications, building up their troops, organizing trading blocs against us, and invading our land with active spies. That's an excellent excuse to declare.

You very well may be right about the Spanish stuff...clever.

I'm happy to be shown otherwise, but I think we're over-emphasizing the importance of trust among the teams. Sure teams want to make sure trade deals are honored, but NOT more than they want to avoid being attacked. To the extent teams are willing to trade with bullies like PAL it is because they feel they are better off for it, NOT because PAL are honorable traders. The willingness for teams to trade while competing, along with the lack of willingness to trade military monopoly techs tells me teams are being much more Machiavellian than idealistic about their trading choices.

[mostly-harmless]

I wholeheartedly agree with sunrises reply.
mh

[regoarrarr]

me too

[sooooo]

I'm not sure that Imperio will actually trade us currency for those two techs. I think they were emailing us to see if we'd tell them how many turns until we get literature, just fishing for information really. Still - we'll know this turn. They haven't logged in yet.

[mostly-harmless]

Some (minor) good news on the horizon. Cape Town will pop its 3rd ring next turn, giving us additional 20% cultural defense.
Every little helps.

mh

[Swiss Pauli]

I know we're all upset about the situation with Imperio, but:

- They must be kicking themselves for ever agreeing a NAP. By rights we should be dead by now. They would have been if the starting positions were reversed.

- Spies are a PITA, but it's not cheating.

- We pressed PAL to delay CoL to stop Imperio's CS Sling. They may know, or may have deduced, that we were behind this move.

- They may be trying to goad us into a rash war declaration of our own: we've seen a lot of production switching, but they don't have an army capable of taking cities yet.

- The longer we're at peace, the stronger we become.

- Both Imperio and Templars fear us...just look at some of names on our roster!

As a post-script, I think PAL used the time that Banana was building Pyramids to settle aggressive and deny Banana expansion, so they got stuck as a 4CC lame duck (long term). Hence the near expiry of the team.