The T120 Imperio NAP Expiry Crisis

[T-hawk]

Can we calculate how many e-points Imperio would require to cause a revolt in Cape Town ... maybe they want to skip having to use Cats?

City Revolt costs 500 EP base. The list of multiplier factors is pretty long, and there's no direct way in-game to see or work out the cost multiplier against your own cities. Here's a stab:

Distance +15%
Espionage spending -20% (if they have double ours)
Trade route -20% (only if they do it before declaring war which cancels the open borders)
Religion -25% (if Islam spreads there since Imperio owns the holy city)
Stationary spy -50%

Most likely war case is between 400-500 EP cost with a turn or two of stationary spy. Minimum possible is about 150 if they do it with open borders still active, with Islam there, and with a fully entrenched spy.

[mostly-harmless]

Hmm, looking at our costs, we require between 700 and 800 e-pts for a city revolt right now.

mh

[mostly-harmless]

Double post.
mh

[Swiss Pauli]

For ease of reference, I thought I'd put this pic here as well:

[Swiss Pauli]

This is looking more and more like an economic/tech crisis to me. Unless Imperio starts churning out serious offensive units whilst we're researching Maths and HBR then it could be that they're simply scared of us, and don't want to give us any help by trading with us. With their own research power and having 3 tech partners to trade with us, they don't really need us.

This might also hold true of Templars: I think they're absolutely terrified of us, and now that they've got their own game going (via some sweet trade deals) they're giving us the cold shoulder.

[mostly-harmless]

I more and more tend to see it the same way. Preparations for an all out attack surely would look different.
What worries me is the lack of diplo exchange.

mh

[sunrise089]

I think the above may very well be right, but it does assume Imperio launches their attack competently. I can certainly still see them slaving out a mace army with minimal warning. I mean, what would there peaceful plan be? Have half of our land and inferior production, and expect us to sit idly by with our Nationalism-synergistic UU?

[Swiss Pauli]

Imperio haven't really struck me as great warmongers (they're not even running Slavery) so maybe they plan to attack but are having trouble sorting it out. My gut feeling says their new member is likely to be more aggressive (an MP guy?).

By not trading with us they're already hurting us plenty, and our fancy Muskets won't do us any good if we're facing Rifles! (I exaggerate, but I'm sure you get the point.)

[mostly-harmless]

As for slavery, they might just have waited for Civil Service!

mh

[mostly-harmless]

Just to update the relevant thread:
Imperio pillaged our only source of copper on T112. Their spy apparently survived and is threatening our horses.

mh

[mostly-harmless]

Gearing up for war.

Here is what I suggest we do to as far as conflict with Imperio is concerned.
Obviously securing our strategic resources is top of the list.
Therefore:

Worker actions:
O'Brien (currently roading Cape road):
T112: Cancel action
T113: Move SE - E
T114: Move to 1S of Cape Town
T115: Re-assess situation and either start pasture on horses or mine on copper

Helmholtz (currently awaiting orders at 2nd wine):
T112-T115: Move towards Cape Town
T116: Re-assess situation and either help pasture or mine

Depending on situation with horses, we are looking at the earliest resuming of production of spear/axes or horse archers at Cape Town on T120. Too late for my taste.

Therefore to bridge that period:

Diplomatic actions:
PAL:
Call in favor and get copper supply from them on T113! That should allow Cape Town to continue producing meaningful units. Workers can concentrate on horses first.

Imperio:
Offer Aesthetics vs. Currency in game.
Promising them Literacy, but
a) either holding it back for a to be specified period arguing "unsafe passage of messengers due to unknown spies active"
b) exchanging it for a hefty sum of gold (reparations for destroyed mine & pasture)
c) not gifting it at all.
Keep in mind, should conflict start with Imperio, they do have marble and high production centers to churn out Heroic Epic for themselves. Something I really don't want to see.

Templars:
Be more specific about conflict with Imperio n the horizon. Lean on their code of honour to get a statement from them what they will do.
Ask, if they would consider trading us either copper/iron or horses against wine for a limited period of time. Press them agree to tech trade Aesthetics&Lit for Metal Casting.

mh

[regoarrarr]

That looks solid.

[Kylearan]

Hi,

nice plan of action, and I agree with asking PAL for a resource. Regarding Literature, c) not gifting it at all seems too harsh to me - that would trash our reputation and would make further deals with other teams a lot harder. a) and b) are problematic too, albeit less so, since they know we knew about the spy before accepting the trade, so they know we cheated them. A declaration of war (if they do it) looks less bad to other teams than agreeing to a deal knowing beforehand that you will hold back on part of the deal as "ransom", so even these two options might cause us diplomatic trouble.

I'd say we still try to make the deal honorably. Seeing them build Heroic Epic sometimes in the future (do they have a 10XP unit for that?) is still better than not trading at all, given our limited trading options at the moment.

-Kylearan

[Swiss Pauli]

Here is what I suggest we do to as far as conflict with Imperio is concerned.
Obviously securing our strategic resources is top of the list.
Therefore:

Worker actions:
O'Brien (currently roading Cape road):
T112: Cancel action
T113: Move SE - E
T114: Move to 1S of Cape Town
T115: Re-assess situation and either start pasture on horses or mine on copper

Helmholtz (currently awaiting orders at 2nd wine):
T112-T115: Move towards Cape Town
T116: Re-assess situation and either help pasture or mine

The mine was sabotaged this turn (which is why I didn't see it when I first logged in). This means the Spy can start to move from Mutal on T113. It has 4 turns of movement to get to the Horses, so T117 is the earliest opportunity for sabotage.

Depending on situation with horses, we are looking at the earliest resuming of production of spear/axes or horse archers at Cape Town on T120. Too late for my taste.

Therefore to bridge that period:

Diplomatic actions:
PAL:
Call in favor and get copper supply from them on T113! That should allow Cape Town to continue producing meaningful units. Workers can concentrate on horses first.

I favour asking for Horses if ours get pillaged, as PAL are at war, have no Iron, and likely want their Copper. Archers, or Walls in Cape until the copper is mined.

Imperio:
Offer Aesthetics vs. Currency in game.
Promising them Literacy, but
a) either holding it back for a to be specified period arguing "unsafe passage of messengers due to unknown spies active"
b) exchanging it for a hefty sum of gold (reparations for destroyed mine & pasture)
c) not gifting it at all.
Keep in mind, should conflict start with Imperio, they do have marble and high production centers to churn out Heroic Epic for themselves. Something I really don't want to see.

How many battles would Imperio need to generate a Great General to unlock Heroic Epic? We haven't seen much barb-XP on their active units.

Templars:
Be more specific about conflict with Imperio n the horizon. Lean on their code of honour to get a statement from them what they will do.
Ask, if they would consider trading us either copper/iron or horses against wine for a limited period of time. Press them agree to tech trade Aesthetics&Lit for Metal Casting.

mh

I'd leave Templars out of our conflict with Imperio. If we take their perspective then they should be interested in dogpiling the civ who's taking the most damage in a war. If we seem weak then they might even actively ally with Imperio (in return for a bribe). The Knights Templar weren't always that principled IIRC...

As to tech, should we not propose Philo for MC, and ask for a quick answer? If they say 'yes', we can always go back to them and say we couldn't get a commitment from other civs to trade for Philo, so we won't be pursuing it in the short-term. Same idea with Banana for Machinery. If we can snag these two techs then we conspiciously upgrade axes in Cape Town.

EDIT: we need to time an upgrade with access to metals (just tested in another game).

[sooooo]

Looks good m_h. I think we should abandon plans for a monastery at Airstrip One for now and have it switch to production mode and military.