The T120 Imperio NAP Expiry Crisis

[sunrise089]

All I'm saying M_H (and I'm consciously playing Devil's advocate right now) is that they could hit the Cape in 7 or 8 turns, before the first reinforcements arrive. I know in that time they wouldn't be able to field an army to defeat us, but if they slaved even a pair of elephants and then just brought the rest of the units they own they could probably take the city. Likewise Templars have plenty of units to at least threaten Pink if they moved in in 7 or 8 turns.

Of course the longer we wait, the less vulnerable (and eventually the more dominant) we become. But if I'm Imperio, and I plan to declare war anyways, and I see we have one city with resources cut off, AND I have a massive military tech advantage...I'd hit as quickly as possible.

[Zeviz]

Don't forget that Imperio is the team that went with BW first tech path. Sure, it's possible that they just wanted early access to chopping and whipping, but I suspect they hoped for an aggressive opening.

[mostly-harmless]

Ok, a lot will depend on whether they honour the T120 deadline for the NAP expiry. I will assume they do that.
Then consider their latest moves. They built a lighthouse in Chichen Itza, a rather non-military building.
Also a consider that they are not in Slavery any more!
The moment the change back to Slavery, we should raise our readiness level.
One thing I would suggest, is to not wait for Bette Hur to arrive as a scout in Imperio lands in 6 turns, but to send an archer there this turn.

mh

[Sullla]

An all out attack from Templar would not amount to much at the moment. Sullla is closely monitoring their units and they only have 3 and a half cities.

Just for the record, here's what we are currently projecting:

Guesstimated Total Military (Templars)
6 quechuas (2 known)
4 axes (1 known)
2 spearmen (both known)
2 chariots (0 known)
2 archers (0 known)

Guesstimated Total Military (Imperio)
3 warriors (2 known)
3 holkans (all known)
2 chariot (all known)
2 archer (both unknown)
1 longbow (unknown)

At the moment, Templars are stronger than Imperio. But Imperio can scale up their military about three times faster than Templars can...

[Swiss Pauli]

The crisis with Imperio is not solely a military one: with them giving us the cold shoulder on tech deals, we have only have one trading partner (PAL), whereas all the relevant teams have a least two (assuming Banana and PAL will trade techs as well as resources). Getting, at best, half the short-term trade value out of each tech we learn compared to our rivals will see our competiveness slide. This is another reason to get Templars onside (as long as they remain a viable trading partner).

[mostly-harmless]

As mentioned in the C&D thread the Imperio crisis takes another twist, as Imperio is now running the Espionage slider against us. At their current spending (11ept) they will be able to see our research in 4 turns. We are currently spending only 1ept towards Imperio in return, attempting to raise the costs for "Can see research". Once we have a first glimpse on Rabbits demographics (next turn), I suggest to divert all 4 of our espionage points back to Imperio to raise the cost even further and maybe push them back to 5 turns before they can see our research.

mh

[mostly-harmless]

Hmm, their whole preparations come over so clumsy. Getting that road done so early, starting the espionage slider so early (and then running only 10%), not replying to our diplo messages in ages (do they want to keep that up for the next 15 turns = 30days?)

If it were not for our reliance on the open borders, we could just dial them up now and ask them what the hell they are thinking. We must ensure we keep open borders with them until the day they declare.

mh

[Kylearan]

Hi,

Hmm, their whole preparations come over so clumsy. Getting that road done so early, starting the espionage slider so early (and then running only 10%)

Basically I agree with what you said, but if they plan to use spies to remove our cultural defenses, they have to start early enough to accumulate points to be able to do that. Running the slider at 10% for a longer period of time looks less suspicious than setting it at 100% for a shorter period, although with all the other signs we'd have to be real stupid not to expect an attack...

If they really plan to use spies to incite revolts (and I guess so, as simply seeing what we're researching is not really worth it), would it be worthwhile to put a spy of ourselves into the most endangered city? I'm not familiar enough with spy detection mechanics to assess whether the hammers are worth it, or better spent for a "real" military unit.

-Kylearan

[mostly-harmless]

Welcome back, Kylearan. Hope you were still reading along in the last weeks?

Yes, I was thinking along the same lines.
What could they do with their espionage points.
The answer is, not much if they are running the slider at 10%.

Now, I can only go by the costs I see for our own spies, but I am assuming Imperios costs are not that far off.

"Can see research" - Passive mission. Currently at 186e-pts. Not much we can do against that other than hoping to raise that number by spending our own 4e-pts towards Imperio in the next turns. Harm done? Well, they can see what we research next and the ETA. Maybe not such a bad thing after all, if they can see we are full track on military techs. Might change their mind.

Support city revolt" - Active mission (needs a spy unit)
Current cost estimate ~700e-pts. That's a lot! They have 149e-pts up to now and are running 11e-pts against us currently. Assume that the costs go down to ~600e-pts. They would still need to accumulate 450e-pts against us in 15turns.

There is of course also the option to use a spy against our sole source of metal and horses. I have no idea about the cost for such a mission.

Do we have any specialist on espionage in the team that know how to increase our chances to catch a spy?

mh

[T-hawk]

Do we have any specialist on espionage in the team that know how to increase our chances to catch a spy?

The one big thing that can be done is to station a spy of your own on the tile in question. This raises the chances to catch considerably, IIRC from something like 1% per turn to around 10% in most cases. The other big factor is to build a Security Bureau.

But that's only good against one tile (there is no "zone defense" against spies), and really only good to protect a city. Sabotage missions are cheap enough that the enemy spy won't need or bother to wait for cost reduction, so there's one long shot at catching, at best.

[Swiss Pauli]

Given the clumsiness of Imperio's preparations thus far, I wouldn't rule out them planning on sending in a spy early to get the discount. Seeing as we need to do all we can to hold Cape Town then it may just we worth investing in a spy of our own.

[Swiss Pauli]

The "Can Research" Screen for PAL shows this list:
Literature
Drama
Feudalism
Theology
Civil Service
Calendar
Currency
Philosophy
Horseback Riding
Compass
Machinery

"Can't Trade" shows:
Monarchy
Mathematics
Metal Casting

PAL got Construction!

Meh. Anyone else think that's a downpayment from Imperio for CS?

[sunrise089]

Perhaps Imperio is running the slider to make it too expensive for us to see their current research.

[mostly-harmless]

Don't think so. We have not spend e-pts towards Imperio for ages. And they know that. There was never any risk that we could see their research. And running the slider seems like a over-reaction. Their normal 4e-pts would have been more than sufficient for that.

mh

[Dreylin]

Can we calculate how many e-points Imperio would require to cause a revolt in Cape Town ... maybe they want to skip having to use Cats?