What's with the loaded dice?

[Alcatraz]

I'm a poker player when I'm not playing Civ III. This thread reminds me of an article I once read by Mike Caro talking about "bad beats" (hands lost because your opponent gets the one and only card in the deck that will allow him to beat you, despite the odds against doing so). Mike says that he thinks, on average, he has more bad beats against him than most players and goes on to explain that it's because he is more often holding the better hand -- thus there are more situations where he can be made a victim of a bad beat.

The situation here is analogous. The AI doesn't upgrade units, so you're going to be attacking spearmen with armor. Occasionaly, the spearmen will win. On the other hand, you probably will never be defending against armor with spearmen, so you don't have the chance to give the AI a similar "bad beat".

[vmxa1]

First the only thing of value about Mike Caro is his wife, and his tells is for children. The analogy to a holdem bad beat is just fine, they are rare, if we talk about real long shots. I do not get a bad beat in every game I play at the Bike or anywhere else, I do at Civ3.
As to the cocktail, meet you anytime with my tank and your cocktail. What do think will happen! A molotov will not stop a tank, it will just burn off. Please stop trying to justify insanity.

[Thrawn05]

Originally posted by vmxa1
As to the cocktail, meet you anytime with my tank and your cocktail. What do think will happen! A molotov will not stop a tank, it will just burn off. Please stop trying to justify insanity.

Have you ever thought that perhaps you built a tank with a dumb commander who left the hatch open and mr. molotov dove right in?

That's the way I can justify how the underdog can still win. You just built a tank with the marx brothers behind the wheels.

[vmxa1]

I do not believe anyone would put up such nonsense, get a grip.

[Zachriel]

Originally posted by vmxa1
As to the cocktail, meet you anytime with my tank and your cocktail. What do think will happen! A molotov will not stop a tank, it will just burn off. Please stop trying to justify insanity.

Bet on the tank, but occasionally you will still lose. Tanks have indeed been destroyed by "irregular" attacks.

[Zachriel]

For information about the effectiveness about the Molotov cocktail (the hatch does not have to be left open.

http://history.vif2.ru/library/bookshelf/weapons/weapons2.html

Where do people get the idea that tanks are invulnerable? Indeed, tanks are most effective when taking chances, meaning taking risks that may result in their destruction, such as racing behind the enemy forces in order to cut their lines of supply and communications. (Tactics are not always shown in Civ3, which is a strategy game.)

I have played continuously since the game came out. The randomizer appears "true."

You need to prepare for the unexpected in combat. Sometimes things will break bad, so you need to have a little more force to account for it. A bad break can stop your advance, or leave you vulnerable to a counterattack. The military considers 3-1 on open ground, 5-1 on beachheads, and 10-1 against fortified positions as the minimum for any confidence. Even then, you can lose sometimes.

See http://www.crowncity.net/civ3/Attack.htm. Civ3 is a very tough game, but is worth the effort.

[Zachriel]

http://www.crowncity.net/civ3/Attack.htm

[vmxa1]

Everything you said, I am well aware of. If you noticed, I never intended that tanks be impervious to attack, only that they never lose to spearmen, or at least only once in lifetime. Spearmen have no knowledge of tanks or how to defeat them. If you are claimnig they are now modern fighter, they call them something else. Spearmen carry spears, not RPG's. I am not crying about even Calv beating tanks, only that no rolls should work for 212, 121 or even 321 type units against 26 16 3. As to the cocktails, how many times has it occurred. A lot less than you will see in one week of Civ3. I have been playing non stop, except for the first week of this month and I have all day to do it often 12-15 hrs and I have seen many breaking of the norm. Again, I am not concerned with a rare bad break, they are not rare, it is rare to get in a game with out one. Playing Regent now, but have played all but emperor.

[Zachriel]

Originally posted by vmxa1
Again, I am not concerned with a rare bad break, they are not rare, it is rare to get in a game with out one.

That's correct. Each game represents the entire history of the world. As history is full of unusual events, I would expect many unusual events in each game. If only expected events occurred in history, I doubt it would be worth writing down.

[Willem]

Originally posted by Zachriel
If only expected events occurred in history, I doubt it would be worth writing down.

Excellent point!

[vmxa1]

The point is nice, but irrelevant. This is not a complete history and even if it was, no spearmen met with any tanks, so why throw that fatuous stuff in? Either we see outrageous results or we do not. If we (and I do not see how anyone can say we do not) do, it should be corrected. To be very rare, that means once in 5-10 games, not as many as 7 times in a single war. I will say it seems less common at the higher levels, which is just the opposite of the way it makes sense. I say that as the players at the higher level are more hardcore. Players that are new and play lowest levels are the very people that are dumping the game because of this phenomenon.

[Zachriel]

Originally posted by vmxa1
Either we see outrageous results or we do not.

I just don't see "outrageous results" in my games. Level shouldn't matter.

[Zachriel]

Originally posted by vmxa1
Either we see outrageous results or we do not.

I just don't see "outrageous results" in my games.

Even if we fight a spearmen with a tank, we must be prepared for the possiblity of danger. Do you expect the enemy spearmen to just line up and let our tanks blast them? No, they will attempt to trap us in a ravine and throw boulders on us, or build a pit, or sabotage our supply lines. That's why you have artillery.

Do not underestimate the Lowly Spearman:

http://www.crowncity.net/civ3/counterattack.htm

[Jumping Choya]

You're overlooking several key points here:

1. If my tanks are facing spearmen in some grasslands, there is no ravine.
2. If there was a ravine, I doubt the tanks would just drive on into it, throwing all caution to the winds. They would take the high ground.
3. I expect the unit I see on screen to reflect what it is. If I see a spearman, it is a spearman. It fights with a spear. It is not a molatov cocktail thrower, or a boulder pusher, or a guerilla fighter. If it was any of those, I would expect it to be named so and be upgraded accordingly.
4. I don't see how I group of guys with spears (since in this case, we're dealing with spearmen) would do anything like sabotaging supply lines. And even if they did, the tank crews would still have sufficient ammo in the form of pistols and machine guns to massacre any guys running with spears.
5. Well, you just can't have a list end with four points, can you?

And, before anybody says "well duh u just had a dum tank comander!", here's my response: don't be silly, and don't make up random excuses for a pathetic situation. The game makes no mention about random factors like dumb commanders and other adverse conditions. Thus, I don't consider it a feature of the game. And even if I somehow ended up with a dumb commander, at worst he would order his men to run the damn spearmen over.

And just in case somebody wanted to say "You need to use your imagination, it could be plenty possible!"...no. I didn't buy this game to make inane explanations for crazy situations. I enjoy using my imagination to form stories about my empire, but I don't see any reason why I should have to make an excuse for a lame combat result. If I felt like doing that, I might as well have not bought the game and instead created "Mental Civ" in my head, where I could make all the little excuse-stories I wanted ("and then the pikeman, with a wind of 100 MPH at his back, heaved his pike, and given the added power of the wind, it sliced through a tank, and meanwhile, everybody else was having the same, stellar results!...")

[notyoueither]

I have to agree with Zac here.

1. I have NEVER lost a Tank or ModArm to any unit older than a Rifleman (and then rarely). I suspect that most people are going rabid at the mention that other people have had it happen to them. Or they throw their Tanks about in penny-packets, begging to get picked off in random swings of fate. I have NEVER seen a saved game posted where it happened (although the random seed might not be identical).

2. There have been many stupendously ridiculous results throughout history. No, I'm not suggesting that Spearmen have ever beat Tanks, but there have been many instances of units holding out agianst the odds through skill, luck, or just plain old cussedness. Airbourne at Bastogne, US Fleet at Midway, Union Army on Little Round Top, Canadians at 2nd Ypres, etc, etc.

Zac's point of it happening many times in history is valid. We are playing a game spanning the entire period of human history. Therefore we should see it more than once, or in fact many times per game.

Salve