Seeking advice (PBEM strategy q's)

[Arrian]

Naww...

Honestly, though, I haven't changed anything based on what has been said here: the situation dictates that I do a warrior -> sword upgrade, coupled with some spears, and then once I get horses, build some horsemen.

Speaking of the situation... the Ottomans were down to 3 cities (2 built after Tom warrior rushed Istanbul). Then, in 1000bc, one of them turned yellow. Then, in 975bc, another did. The horse resource I need now lies just outside Tom's borders. I have a road almost all the way there, and I can switch up production to get me a settler ASAP so I can grab it. Holding it past 500bc will be another matter.

The third Ottoman city *should* be safe until I get there to kill it. It's surrounded by jungle on one side, and me on the other. I am 3 turns from hooking up my iron for the upgrade I can only afford 5-6 swords right now.

Ok, so that's the bad, and the good. Here's the ugly: I investigated the last city Tom took (size 1, far from Thebes... it cost me 15 gold) and noted the War Chariot in it, and the GA production bonus. He bit the bullet and fired off his GA. If I understand the turn counter right, it will last from 1000bc to 500bc. He will no doubt spend it building WCs.

I've got a serious problem.

-Arrian

[laissez-faire]

Re: Seeking advice (PBEM strategy q's)

Originally posted by Arrian
[From original post:] My gf is apparently stuck on a mediocre island, and is thus not a concern...

-Arrian

[Brizey]

Arrian:

Yikes.

I guess it should have been expected. I mean, what would you have done playing the Eqyptians next to the Chinese? One general strategy is to crush civs with strong UUs before they get them. So that means crushing the Chinese before Chivalry.

My advice: get those horses! You will need to be able to counter-attack his WCs. You may also want to get the Greeks involved.

Does Tom know about your girlfriend's 411? If not, you may be able to coax her into an alliance. It may give him pause and prevent him from committing everything to smash you.

-Brian

[DaveMcW]

I think threatening an alliance will only increase his desire to smash one of you first.

[nbarclay]

How do you tell when his golden age started and when it can be expected to end? Are you just assuming it started with the 1000 BC attack, or had you gathered evidence prior to that attack indicating that he hadn't been in a GA? Or do you have some other way of knowing?

Actually, as much as I hate to say it, if he can get to you quickly, starting his GA just in time to prepare for a strike at you is probably very good timing for him even if it does mean a GA under Despotism. If neither side has much in the way of forces built up prior to the GA, it makes the percentage advantage he gets from his GA a lot more important than it would be if you'd both built up large forces before the GA started. And all he has to really do with his GA is cripple you to the point where his regular production provides a decisive advantage from then on.

The question is, what, if anything, can you do to foil his ability to get to you quickly? If he already has multiple paths through the jungles for his WCs, and if he can pick from a choice of targets on flat terrain, you're probably in trouble. But all the WCs in the world can't protect workers trying to build (or rebuild, hint, hint) a road through jungle from angry swordsmen, so if you can force him into a jungle fight that his WCs can't really participate in, you might be able to mess up his plans.

[DeepO]

The problem I see is that you have to face WCs on their terrain, while you don't have ideal terrain for your slowmovers. Indeed, getting to horsies asap certainly is a good objective, you'll need them to clean up after attacks. But someway, you need to direct his attacks, so your swords can get to his attacking WCs too, or your toast. Border expansions, and creating strategic strongholds outside your borders to do some preemptive strikes, I'd say...

On the offensive, again you're in the disadvantage, although you could use the jungle as a backportal into his territory. Can you reach some of his core cities, without him knowing you're crossing the jungle? It's a bit of a gamble, as you would divert part of your force, and thus have less to defend your homecountry with, but it could pay off in the end. Going straight at him, on the Ottoman side will most likely result in a very bloody war, in which he will gain more then you as he can attack and retreat to heal. If you can avoid to get in the open, you have a chance, otherwise it's probably best to sit it out, and wait until your riders come by, or you have enough horsies to fight off his WCs.

Good luck!

DeepO

[nbarclay]

If Tom is smart, and if he has a usable route, he'll use his GA to attack Arrian. He might wait until around the time the GA ends to build up a maximum advantage in forces, but waiting longer than that settles the two civs into a more equal balance of force production. (Assuming, that is, that Arrian is right about when the GA started; if it started earlier and Tom used most of his GA production to take out the Ottomans, he might be stretched too thin to attack Arrian now.)

If Arrian expects Tom to launch a major WC offensive, he would be wise to suspend his research for the moment or run it at 10% and to focus on collecting gold for swordsman upgrades. Otherwise, he won't have anywhere near the forces needed to meet a WC attack.

Nathan

[laissez-faire]

Actually, if Tom is smart, he'll bring up the Internet and search for strategy forums on Civ III.

Good game, Arrian. I'm not the multi-player type (yet).

[Arrian]

Update:

We didn't get as much Civ in this weekend as planned, but I think we're around 630 bc now.

Nathan, I know the GA began in 1000bc because that's when his second attack on the Ottomans began. I investigated a city of his in 975bc and yep, he was in a GA. I was wrong about the end date, because the turns switched to 20 years per after 750 bc.

Our armies are comparable in size right now, but obviously his is growing faster. Also, that SOB got good RNG luck vs. the Ottomans: he lost no units, and got 1 promotion to elite. Meanwhile, I took out the last Ottoman city, and lost 2 swordsmen. *^($##%@$)&!

I have disconnected my iron and am building some more vet warriors. My capitol is punching out horsemen every 2 turns: yeah, I grabbed the horses. Tom is highly annoyed about "horse town." He now realizes he could have just lined up his war chariots and prevented me from building the city.

My plan right now: Build as many units as possible, build walls in towns that may come under attack. I am researching Construction. I can then build the Great Wall, which - FOR ONCE - may actually be useful. My walls will then be rather formidable. Plus, I'll be in a GA.

Of course, I have to survive long enough to build the damn thing. I could start prebuilding it now, I suppose, but I need those horsemen at 2 turns per.

Oh, I did complete the Colossus. That's good for the cashflow (read: warrior -> sword upgrades).

-Arrian

[Arrian]

The Battle is Joined

In 490BC, the hideous hordes of the evil pharoah "Tom" invaded Chinese territory and began their assault on the city of Shanghai.

Attackers:

27 War Chariots (26 vet, 1 elite).
4 reg spears, 1 reg sword (not in position to attack, only to cover retreating WCs)

Defenders:

10 spearmen (9 vets, 1 regular)
7 swordsmen (all vet)
6 horsemen (all vet)
4 warriors (all vet)
2 catapults
(29 total units)

Shanghai just happened to have hit size 7.

The results of Tom's attack (490bc):

For Egypt:

7 War Chariots dead
6 War Chariot victories
*I think* 1 promotion to elite

For China:

4 spearmen killed
2 swordsmen killed
1 spearman promoted to elite

The results of Arrian's counterattack (still 490bc):

For Egypt:

4 spearmen killed
1 swordsmen killed
13 War Chariots killed

For China:

One horseman killed
One spearman promoted to elite

The results of the "mop up" operation in 470bc:

For Egypt:

7 War Chariots destroyed (all remaining)

For China:

No casualties.

It was a massacre. What's even better (and Tom doesn't know this yet) is the fact that in 470bc, one of my 2 elite spears killed a War Chariot and produced a leader. I immediately formed an army in Shanghai, added 2 swordsmen and killed another chariot. My capitol has begun the HE, and will be done in 12 turns.

Time to invade Egypt.

-Arrian

[Arrian]

Oh, incidentally, he hit "horse town" too. I figured I'd lose that one for sure.

Nope, 2 out of my 4 spearmen (3 vet, 1 reg) killed, but the remaining two are now elite. Tom's remaining forces are in retreat (IIRC, he hit it with 2 WCs, 2 reg swords and 2 reg spears for cover. Now he has two beat up WCs and the reg spears).

-Arrian

[vulture]

That's a nice set of results for you Arrian. Object lesson in the difference between SP and MP part 1: In SP, 27 war chariots will sweep several AI civs off the map, as a rule.

So, Tom lost 27 WCs, 4 spearmen, 1 swordsman. Meanwhile, Arrian lost 4 spearmen, 2 swordmen and one horseman, and got a great leader. I wonder who came off better in that war then... and all poor Tom's golden age production wasted.

Would you say that he had atrocious luck, or is it just a matter of strong defenses (since 4 spearmen in one city are way more than 4 times more effective that a single spearman)?

[Charis]

Subtle

That one line in the middle, almost missed, was key...

Shanghai just happened to have hit size 7.

Talk about bad timing!
Talk about a massacre!!

Tom is toast.

Assuming he didn't cross a river and Shanghai isn't on a hill, he went from about:
32% win, 32% retreat, 36% loss

to (with size 7):
18% win, 38% retreat, 44% loss. Expected kills: 4-5

(What he GOT was 25% win, 50% retreat, 25% loss, and 6 kills, so, gasp, his first round of attack was... somewhat lucky?!?!)

How it might have progressed at size 6:
First attack:
5 spears killed, 4 swords killed, 9 WC's die, 9 retreat.
Counterattack:
About 9 WCs killed, China losing about 3
Second attack:
About 7 WCs die, China losing about 3.
Second counter:
China wiped out.

He would still probably have failed to take the city (that's a HUGE garrison, likely far more than he expected), but would have at least killed around 15 instead of just 7.

BTW, the purpose of this post isn't to give *exact* numbers (a combat calculator was used, but it doesn't explicitly handle a hodgepodge of defenders), but to show: i) size 7 vs 6 is huge... ii) Tom did *NOT* have atrocious luck. In fact, he did slightly better than the odds suggested, if anything

27 fast attackers by themselves can't take a size 7 city.
And people wonder why I keep pushing (in most cases) combined arms over purely fast attacks

Nice job
Charis

[Arrian]

Charis,

Yeah, believe me I was counting on Shanghai's size to really be a factor. It hit size 7 one or two turns before Tom attacked. Otherwise I would have built walls (as I did in Horse Town). 2 + 50% size bonus + 25% fortification bonus = 3.5 defense for my spears and swords in Shanghai. I was actually annoyed at my casualties as reported by Tom on our cellphones during the attack. He took out my 4 spearman FAST, and then started losing horribly. For a little while there it looked like I might actually lose.

I should post a screenie of the map so I can show you what I mean, but Tom made a serious mistake in taking on Shanghai.

Instead, he should have moved his entire stack onto a forest tile inbetween Shanghai and another city of mine (my source of spices). My other city had a single reg spear in it. In order to whittle down his attack force, I would have had to hit him with the 25% defense bonus of forest, and my slowmovers would have been left outside Shanghai. My cats, if I chose to use them, would be outside as well. There is no way I could have killed all of his WCs. The spice city would have fallen. Sure, I think I could still have wiped out his strike force, but he would have cost me an important city.

Anyway, I'm pleased with the overall result. I fended off a GA-fired Egyptian attack w/o blowing my GA, and meanwhile I also built the Colossus and out-expanded Egypt. I am furthermore in a position to press the counterattack.

-Arrian

[Arrian]

Two other small bonuses for me:

1) I got 2 swordsmen through the jungle & cut his Spices road. He still has Gems and Wines, though.

2) I have a galley exploring his coastline. That, plus the embassy I established way back when, will mean I can see nearly his entire territory. I am considering withdrawing the galley, however, and loading 2 spears into it, and dropping them off on his gem mountains. Decisions, decisions. Explore, or hinder the enemy?

My research/wonder priorities have changed since the battle was joined. I am now researching Republic, and intend to hold off on the GW until I have it.

-Arrian