A bit of philosophy...

[cumi]

I read somewhere from one philosopher/scientist, that:

"Let's say there is something/somebody that knows the exact present situation.

Let's say, that this/he knows ALL the rules in the world (even what the people doesn't know now).

If such a thing exsist, it can predict exactly the future!"

This is a very simple philosophical thesis and after thinking a bit about it, I think it's true.

I think, there is a relation of this to Civ3. If you know how the game (engine) exactly works and you know all your game parameters (terrain, AI etc), you can exactly predict the future turn.

This can be true especially for the begin of the game. The building sequence of the first cities, research etc.

...although there are always events, what are -I think- generated randomly, like the behavior of the barbarians or the AI. Once I saved the game, -because I found that I am very good way, to win it- and shortly later, the AI attacked me and I had huge losses. I reloaded the game, where I have saved last time and SURPRISE the AI didn't attacked me...

[Hueij]

...although there are always events, what are -I think- generated randomly, like the behavior of the barbarians or the AI. Once I saved the game, -because I found that I am very good way, to win it- and shortly later, the AI attacked me and I had huge losses. I reloaded the game, where I have saved last time and SURPRISE the AI didn't attacked me...

So your thesis isn't true, at least not in Civ3.

In the real universe it would be true if you knew the exact place and status of every individual particle, iow you have to be God

[Egbert]

The philosopher/scientist who said that was Pierre, the Marquis de Laplace. (bit of trivia).

[cumi]

Originally posted by peterfharris
The philosopher/scientist who said that was Pierre, the Marquis de Laplace. (bit of trivia).

Thanx!

cumi

[CrONoS]

yep, but he say that about planet or some macro universe...

Isaac Asimov write many novel about predicting human behavior.(The Foundation series ) That's describe the story of a mathematician who know the mathematical law behind every social behavior, so in this book they can predict the future of a society... But this is Sci-Fi... hehehe

True or not, Nietzsche and some other man(like Carl Jung) tried to understand social engineering... Nietzsche have done "well" to describe 100 years in advance how we will live(the psychology of our society) and Jung was good to analyze comptemporary social behavior.

I dont think you can know which Civilization will be strong in 50 years... but I think you can know, how the psychology of a society can be in 50 years, if we know the rules behind our psychology.

One thing miss in our education and this is social engineering and the psychology of religion/value/political, religious faith/culture and civilization.

We believe or not in religion, in modern value... but what we do not know, is how we are "programmed" by the psychology of the society and our psychologic constitution to believe or not in muslim, christian God, if we're pantheist, atheist, mystics, occultism, nihilist, liberal or conservative... each things are instinct who battle in the heart of man for the power. Some instinct are just a combination of ther much basinc instinct.

Yes we're free to choose... but how many of us are really free... I really think maybe 0.50%.... Even Nietzsche was not free of himself.! In our soul we have season... some times we destroyed what we are believing yesterday, next day we recreate ourself and value, someday we dont care at all and we have faith in ourself and in life, some day we believe in God...

Yeah, some man, believe all this life in God, other not, other do not really care about all that. Some people soul are more like fluid, superficial, liberal, curious soul who change often(like mine). Other are like great foundation who never change, stable and well determined... more conservative.

Yes, there is some Instinct who can be calculated to make a well Social Engineering system(Civ 4).

A system who incorporate some aspect of civilization(psychology of civilization. Now in Civ3 we have some: if they're agressive, peacefull, industrious, religous, expansionnist) this is good... but this is something too simple and not well developed. Civilization must change by years, must devellop faith(I include many faith, Democracy, freedom, aristocracy,anlytic-mind, synthetical-mind, mystics, patriotic, monotheism, pagan). And each faith will change some aspect of the civilization, maybe patriotic will boost the army but will make people more conservative and will have some lower culture ... Even each faith will determined our a society will devellop his technology. I dont know, but there is something missing in Civ3 about social psychology... let's wish something good will be created one day, but not too complex.

So I wish you understand what I try to say. I speak french...

See ya

[epics]

If it would be true in Civ3 it won't be in Conquest. I'm talking about vulcano eruption and earth quakes, you can never predict them.

P.S. It's not true in real.

[Quasar1011]

Originally posted by cronos_qc
Isaac Asimov write many roman about predicting human behavior.(The Foundation ) That's describe the story of a society who know the mathematical law behind every social behavior, so in this book they can predict the future of a society many years earlier...
See ya

I gave up trying to predict the future after Sept. 11, 2001.

I should have given up at New Year's of that year. I went to see Madame Zelda for a 2001 psychic reading, but she had to cancel it because something unexpected came up... Then my buddy recommended Madame Marie for a reading, so I made an appointment. On the day I was to see her, I went up to her door and knocked, and she said, "Who is it?" So I left.

[CrONoS]

Quasar1011: maybe i'm not describing well what i was trying to say:
The book from Isaac Asimov is a roman(novel) not a pseudoscientific essay... there is not links with our civilization.(the book is set in 15000 years later)... It's just the history of a mathematician who know how to predict the future with mathematics... and he predict the downfall of the central empire who control thousand of planets.

the mathematician try to escape from the government who want to capture him.

All the other book from the series is set after the destruction of the empire, and how the Foundation(a planet who is supposed to keep alive all the science of the old empire during the dark age of the universe) will try to do not being destroyed by other "power-hungry" planets. This is one of the best sci-fiction roman I ever read... maybe the best.

If you ever read The Robot from Isaac Asimov, the story is set after this book. He is the guy who set the 3 law of Robotics...

So have a nice day