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Leaders: when and why

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  • #16
    nobody mentioned in what proportions the militaristic trait modifies the chances of getting a GL, so I'm asking.

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    • #17
      Ahhhh, the ensemble average.... whilst odds of 1/12 look like that you can expect a GL around the time of your 12th successful Elite battle, things aren't quite that nice.

      An ensemble average applies to large numbers - in solid state physics the number is ~10^23 - ten to the 23rd power, or a one followed by 23 zeros. In Civ3 who can say what sort of number scale is involved but the programmers? There may be an additional parameter besides the simple probability - one that dictates runs of good or bad luck, so to speak - a kind of standard deviation in the average of 1/12.

      These are things that none of us can answer, I am afraid. Me, I just hope that every time I have an Elite battle that I will hit on the one time in millions where every battle will result in a leader. And if it doesn't, then my good luck will start with the next battle.
      Consul.

      Back to the ROOTS of addiction. My first missed poll!

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      • #18
        Uh doesn't that star next to Elite indicate whether it has produced a leader?

        I don't know whether this is so obvious I should say it in an insulting tone, or so stupid I should whisper it and get slapped by just one person. I'm hoping for the first.

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        • #19
          Yes, a unit that has produced a leader will have a * next to it (Elite* Horseman). However, if you upgrade that unit, it will return to veteran status and lose the star. It can then be promoted normally and generate another leader.

          philler,

          The militaristic trait has an indirect effect on leader generation. Militaristic civs get a bonus to their unit's promotion rate (I think it's double the normal rate) so they will end up with more elite units. More elites = more chances at leaders. But the actual chances of generating a leader when winning a battle with an elite unit are the same for all civs (1/16 on offense, 1/32 on defense, modified to 1/12 and 1/24 if you have the Heroic Epic).

          -Arrian
          grog want tank...Grog Want Tank... GROG WANT TANK!

          The trick isn't to break some eggs to make an omelette, it's convincing the eggs to break themselves in order to aspire to omelettehood.

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          • #20
            ok thanks for the info Arrian

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            • #21
              As MWIA says (more or less), having expectations of when leaders turn up is going to be misleading most of the time. With lots of trials the average shows up quite nicely, but with only a few you can get huge swings of luck.

              With a 1/16 chance of getting a leader in each elite victory, you have (from the start of the game) a (roughly) 50% chance of getting a leader in your first 11 elite wins. You have a 6.25% chance of getting one on your first win. That's the same odds as going 43 elite victories in a row without getting a single leader. Before every elite combat, remind yourself that you have as much chance of going 43 wins without a leader as you do of getting a leader with this win. It should help give you a sense of perspective.

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              • #22
                Originally posted by Arrian
                The militaristic trait has an indirect effect on leader generation. Militaristic civs get a bonus to their unit's promotion rate (I think it's double the normal rate) so they will end up with more elite units. More elites = more chances at leaders. But the actual chances of generating a leader when winning a battle with an elite unit are the same for all civs
                I never knew that!


                As an aside, do we have numbers for promotion probabilities, at all? Anecdotally it seems to me that conscript -> regular almost always occurs, with regular -> vet and vet -> elite happening about equally; but we all know hoe much use anecdotal evidence is

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                • #23
                  I THINK it goes like this (this is from memory, and quick searches here and at CFC failed):

                  Conscript -> Regular = 50%, 25% vs. barbs
                  Regular -> Veteran = 25%, 12.5% vs. barbs
                  Veteran -> Elite = 12.5%, 6.75% vs. barbs

                  Those probabilities only apply if you actually kill the opposing unit, not if it runs away. The values are doubled for militaristic civs. Additionally, any unit that wins two battles on the same turn will get an automatic promotion. This is why your regular warrior can get hit by 3 barbs and end up elite even though his promotion chances don't look nearly that good.

                  -Arrian
                  grog want tank...Grog Want Tank... GROG WANT TANK!

                  The trick isn't to break some eggs to make an omelette, it's convincing the eggs to break themselves in order to aspire to omelettehood.

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                  • #24
                    I think the promotion odds are halved for a defender, but of course they are much more likely to win two battles in the same turn than attackers.

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