How random is getting a Leader?

[VoodooChild]

I have an elite spearman outside a barbarian camp...

He has killed at least 9 barbarians since becoming elite,
I've tested attacking on different turns for the last eight turns,
and I've just got done loading and reloading 32 battles from a single turn.

Even with 1 in 16 odds, I've should have hit by now.
So is this completly random, or do I have to wait for the right turn, or win 16 battles before I get my leader?

Thanks for any help for those who have tested this out.

[General Ludd]

1. Saving and reloading does not change the outcome, unless you play it out differently each time.

2. you can not get leaders from fighting barbarians.

[barefootbadass]

Really? I thought you could get leaders from barbarians.
Well, even if you can't they are still useful for getting elite units.

1 in 16 odds does not mean you have to wait 16 battles. It is random within your odds. I think militaristic civs have slightly higher odds of getting a leader. Also, if the odds really are 1 in 16, 9 victories would still have only about a 45% chance of getting at least one leader, so this result is not unusual. The 32 would have been the same unless you did some other things first.

[Venger]

Originally posted by Osweld
2. you can not get leaders from fighting barbarians.

You can't? That sorta sucks. Ah well...

I have gotten EIGHT during this, yes, still my first game. Got my latest one stockpiled for a wonder...

Venger

[Gaius Marius]

Originally posted by Osweld
1. Saving and reloading does not change the outcome, unless you play it out differently each time.

2. you can not get leaders from fighting barbarians.

That's actually a 56.25% chance. (1/16 per times 9 opportunities)

[Skanky Burns]

Ive gotten 5 in my current game, and im just short of winning by domination. Although most of my attacks are by vet units, not elite.

[Alex 14]

I havent gotten one yet, the combat system doesn't let my elites survive long enough.