Mach vs Swordsmen, ect...

[player1]

Mech. Inf attack fortified swordsmen: (12 vs 3)
Civ1 model:
-12/(12+3)=80%, so one in 5 timen mech. Inf will lose a battle,
Civ2 model:
-units have a tons of HP so Mech will ALWAYS win a battle.
-Civ3 model:
chance of mech. inf. losing a battle (3 hp both):
0.2*0.2*0.2*(0.8*0.8*0.8+0.8*0.8+0.8)=1.56% (not likely)
chance of mech. inf. losing a battle (4hp mech.inf 3hp swordsman):
0.2*0.2*0.2*0.2*(0.8*0.8*0.8+0.8*0.8+0.8)=0.31% (almost impossibile)
chance of mech. inf. losing a battle (3hp mech.inf 4hp swordsman):
0.2*0.2*0.2*(0.8*0.8*0.8*0.8+0.8*0.8*0.8+0.8*0.8+0 .8)=1.88% (still not likely)
chance of mech. inf. losing a battle (3hp mech.inf 5hp swordsman):
0.2*0.2*0.2*
*(0.8*0.8*0.8*0.8*0.8+0.8*0.8*0.8*0.8+0.8*0.8*0.8+ 0.8*0.8+0.8)=2.15% (ones in 50 times)

chance of mech. inf. losing a battle (2hp mech.inf conscript,
5hp swordsman):
0.2*0.2*
*(0.8*0.8*0.8*0.8*0.8+0.8*0.8*0.8*0.8+0.8*0.8*0.8+ 0.8*0.8+0.8)=10%

So it look like that only conscript Mech Inf (if exist) can be beaten by Veteran or Elite Swordsmen (once in 10 times)

Anyway lowering of hitpoints from civ2 is good thing (there I was always certain wich unit is going to win), but now elite units look VERY powerfull
regardles of obsolence.

Also it looks like taht CONSCRIPTS are very waek compared to other units.

[Skanky Burns]

Nice analysis, Player1

[Stuie]

Re: Mach vs Swordsmen, ect...

Originally posted by player1
Mech. Inf attack fortified swordsmen: (12 vs 3)
...

Nice job. I have no problem with this; you can give anyone military equipment, but if they don't know how to use it they are going to have a chance of failure against a superiorly trained unit with inferior weaponry. As long as Civ3 doesn't cheat on the math, I vote for some slight unpredictability.

[Urban Ranger]

Your calculation seems to be wrong. You need to list all the combinations.

For example:

[2 HP Mech Inf vs 5 HP Swordsman, with Mech Inf a 80% chance to hit and the Swordsman a 20% chance to hit, and ignoring any bonuses speed may confer on combat]:

1. Cases where the Mech Inf win:

MI MI MI MI MI = 0.8 ^ 5 = 0.32768
S MI MI MI MI MI = 0.8 ^ 5 * 0.2 = 0.0065536
MI S MI MI MI MI = 0.8 ^ 5 * 0.2 = 0.0065536
MI MI S MI MI MI = 0.8 ^ 5 * 0.2 = 0.0065536
MI MI MI S MI MI = 0.8 ^ 5 * 0.2 = 0.0065536
MI MI MI MI S MI = 0.8 ^ 5 * 0.2 = 0.0065536

Total probability of 0.65536

2. Cases where the Swordsman win:

S S = 0.2 * 0.2 = 0.04

S MI S = 0.2 * 0.2 * 0.8 = 0.032
S MI MI S = 0.2 * 0.2 * 0.8 * 0.8 = 0.0256
S MI MI MI S = 0.2 * 0.2 * 0.8 * 0.8 * 0.8 = 0.02048
S MI MI MI MI S = 0.2 * 0.2 * 0.8 * 0.8 * 0.8 * 0.8 = 0.016384

MI S S = 0.2 * 0.2 * 0.8 = 0.032
MI S MI S = 0.2 * 0.2 * 0.8 * 0.8 = 0.0256
MI S MI MI S = 0.2 * 0.2 * 0.8 * 0.8 * 0.8 = 0.02048
MI S MI MI MI S = 0.2 * 0.2 * 0.8 * 0.8 * 0.8 * 0.8 = 0.016384

MI MI S S = 0.2 * 0.2 * 0.8 * 0.8 = 0.0256
MI MI S MI S = 0.2 * 0.2 * 0.8 * 0.8 * 0.8 = 0.02048
MI MI S MI MI S = 0.2 * 0.2 * 0.8 * 0.8 * 0.8 * 0.8 = 0.016384

MI MI MI S S = 0.2 * 0.2 * 0.8 * 0.8 * 0.8 = 0.02048
MI MI MI S MI S = 0.2 * 0.2 * 0.8 * 0.8 * 0.8 * 0.8 = 0.016384

MI MI MI MI S S = 0.2 * 0.2 * 0.8 * 0.8 * 0.8 * 0.8 = 0.016384

Total probability = 0.34644

So actually the Mech Inf has a 35% chance of losing.

[Fidel]

Re: Mach vs Swordsmen, ect...

ajmo momci s ETF-a, da vidimo ko je u pravu
player1, gde si u bgd-u?

[player1]

Re: Re: Mach vs Swordsmen, ect...

Originally posted by LaRusso
ajmo momci s ETF-a, da vidimo ko je u pravu
player1, gde si u bgd-u?

U Beogradu, Visnjica (ides 32-kom od Vukovog spomenika pa do kraja)
I da, studiram ETF indeks 136/98.

[player1]

Originally posted by Urban Ranger
Your calculation seems to be wrong. You need to list all the combinations.

Total probability = 0.34644

So actually the Mech Inf has a 35% chance of losing.

I think you are right, I made an error.
Still, maybe a Mech. Inf. Conscript doesn't exsisit.
So for 5hp S. vs 3hp M.I. chances are: 14,983% (approx. once in 6.7 times), I guess that this happened in the review.

[Fidel]

Re: Re: Re: Mach vs Swordsmen, ect...

Originally posted by player1

U Beogradu, Visnjica (ides 32-kom od Vukovog spomenika pa do kraja)
I da, studiram ETF indeks 136/98.

haha, vracar ovde, mada najcesce nisam u bgd-u
kako ces da nabavis igru? neces valjda kod pirata (posto neces moci da je patchujes). moja stize za koji dan iz proklete amerike

[player1]

Re: Re: Re: Re: Mach vs Swordsmen, ect...

Originally posted by LaRusso
haha, vracar ovde, mada najcesce nisam u bgd-u
kako ces da nabavis igru? neces valjda kod pirata (posto neces moci da je patchujes). moja stize za koji dan iz proklete amerike

Eh, da sam ja te srece da kupim igru iz Americe! (mnogo skupo)

Moracu kod pirata, a za pecheve ne brini, na mrezi se mogu naci i hakovani pechevi (a i jos ne znamo kakvu zastitu civ3 ima).

[player1]

For 5hp S. vs 4hp M.I. chances are: 5.8% (approx. once in 17 times), not a problem anymore.

[Fidel]

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Mach vs Swordsmen, ect...

Originally posted by player1


Eh, da sam ja te srece da kupim igru iz Americe! (mnogo skupo)

Moracu kod pirata, a za pecheve ne brini, na mrezi se mogu naci i hakovani pechevi (a i jos ne znamo kakvu zastitu civ3 ima).

wow, da sam samo znao za one igre pre....mada sam i civ2 kupio original...ako ijedna serija to zasluzuje, to je ova.

[OneFootInTheGrave]

Hey guys how about an army of elite swordsmen (they pull their HP's together) vs a Mech Inf.?

It seems that army of three swordsmen can easily beat a Mech Inf.

2hp mech inf vs 15 hp swordsman elite army. If I am right the mech inf has around 14% chance to win which is one in 7.

Could anyone calculate

How real is that? You could have an army of elite swordsman roaming trough your teritorry for a long time.

[Fidel]

Originally posted by OneFootInTheGrave
Hey guys how about an army of elite swordsmen (they pull their HP's together) vs a Mech Inf.?

It seems that army of three swordsmen can easily beat a Mech Inf.

2hp mech inf vs 15 hp swordsman elite army. If I am right the mech inf has around 14% chance to win which is one in 7.

Could anyone calculate

How real is that? You could have an army of elite swordsman roaming trough your teritorry for a long time.

hehehehe, why not shouting 'jihaaad'

[Ray K]

Originally posted by player1

I think you are right, I made an error.
Still, maybe a Mech. Inf. Conscript doesn't exsisit.
So for 5hp S. vs 3hp M.I. chances are: 14,983% (approx. once in 6.7 times), I guess that this happened in the review.

A 15% chance is still too high. As you pointed out, the probability Civ1 was 20%.

[Döbeln_2001]

Here's a thought - just boost the values of modern units further in the editor. Should take care of the problem.

Regards / Döbeln_2001