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OK - the plan is coming together, pretty much along the lines as planned.
But - Murphy is alive and well, so we should probably think about what can go wrong, and what we do if it does. Contingency planning 101.
I can think of a couple of doomsday scenarios, and we should have exit strategies.
#1. GS knows we are coming.
I sort of doubt it - but we need to monitor any signs that might indicate they know it. The big one would be the relative military strengths. But if they do know, and are preparing, what would it look like.
Spearmen in key defensive positions. Chariots to wear down our immortals, swordsmen to to serious damage. Would they let us take a couple of cities to catch us in the flats with chariots? Or wait until we move next to a major city and launch a serious counterattack.
The big question - if we get an early (ie the operation is under way and we are at war with GS) sign that they know we are coming - do we halt, pull back and try and make peace - or do we push on?
#2 GoW and NeuD use the opportunity to rush us in the north.
I also think this is unlikely - it would not gain much for them - could be costly - and simply weakens or wipes out the last place civ - that's us. Would be pretty stupid on their part - but then NeuD's single-mindedness may lead them to it.
I guess in this case - we see how much they have invaded with. They can ferry units across pretty quickly up north. A two-front war would be gruesome, so I think we would need to cut and run from the southern campaign, and protect North Estonia at all costs.
(And then commit the rest of the game to making sure NeuD and GoW do not win.
)
#3 The nightmare scenario - combination of #1 and #2.
Which is probably more likely than #2, because if if the two hyenas were going to stab us in the back, I'm sure they would enlist GS' help. This would be a desperate situation. Make as many Immortals as we can before the iron source is cut off - and then rush a harbor and beg for iron from RP or Lego - who would probably provide it to make sure we are around as a counter-balance.
#4 The best-case abort. We find out before the operation goes that GS knows about it
- but neither of us have said anything. Do we call it a day - put on the innocent act, and try and recruit their help for a return to the continent. I think RP, for all their feigned unity, would not mind an ally willing to come in from the north when the big continental war breaks out.
A couple of key considerations here are:
Ghengis does not really like GS. They are the strat forum gang, and I think he would like to see them brought down a notch.
I think Ghengis likes the plan we have in the works.
NeuD - bit of a blackhole diplomatically. I still have not had a response to my last letter. They are hard to read.
GoW has stuck pretty much to its word - even if they do drive hard bargains.
Both NeuD and GoW have to realize that in the long run, it would be better to have us, rather than GS, left standing on Estonia. They are GS - the Apolyton All-stars; we are the Vox nobodies.
Ghengis explained his long-term goals which he shared with NeuD and has their agreement on. It goes like this - GoW and Vox take out GS. GoW and NeuD and Vox take out RP. Then we go after Lego. After that ??? he didn't say.
I say we do GS first - RP because we agreed to it - then we will see.
And the final consideration - they may not trust us. Both are pissed that we built the city, after the big 4 civ chat - where they intepreted it that we would not. And we did in Lux. So - we may have to see this from their point of view.
Comments? Thoughts?
But - Murphy is alive and well, so we should probably think about what can go wrong, and what we do if it does. Contingency planning 101.
I can think of a couple of doomsday scenarios, and we should have exit strategies.
#1. GS knows we are coming.
I sort of doubt it - but we need to monitor any signs that might indicate they know it. The big one would be the relative military strengths. But if they do know, and are preparing, what would it look like.
Spearmen in key defensive positions. Chariots to wear down our immortals, swordsmen to to serious damage. Would they let us take a couple of cities to catch us in the flats with chariots? Or wait until we move next to a major city and launch a serious counterattack.
The big question - if we get an early (ie the operation is under way and we are at war with GS) sign that they know we are coming - do we halt, pull back and try and make peace - or do we push on?
#2 GoW and NeuD use the opportunity to rush us in the north.
I also think this is unlikely - it would not gain much for them - could be costly - and simply weakens or wipes out the last place civ - that's us. Would be pretty stupid on their part - but then NeuD's single-mindedness may lead them to it.
I guess in this case - we see how much they have invaded with. They can ferry units across pretty quickly up north. A two-front war would be gruesome, so I think we would need to cut and run from the southern campaign, and protect North Estonia at all costs.
(And then commit the rest of the game to making sure NeuD and GoW do not win.
)#3 The nightmare scenario - combination of #1 and #2.
Which is probably more likely than #2, because if if the two hyenas were going to stab us in the back, I'm sure they would enlist GS' help. This would be a desperate situation. Make as many Immortals as we can before the iron source is cut off - and then rush a harbor and beg for iron from RP or Lego - who would probably provide it to make sure we are around as a counter-balance.
#4 The best-case abort. We find out before the operation goes that GS knows about it
- but neither of us have said anything. Do we call it a day - put on the innocent act, and try and recruit their help for a return to the continent. I think RP, for all their feigned unity, would not mind an ally willing to come in from the north when the big continental war breaks out.
A couple of key considerations here are:
Ghengis does not really like GS. They are the strat forum gang, and I think he would like to see them brought down a notch.
I think Ghengis likes the plan we have in the works.
NeuD - bit of a blackhole diplomatically. I still have not had a response to my last letter. They are hard to read.
GoW has stuck pretty much to its word - even if they do drive hard bargains.
Both NeuD and GoW have to realize that in the long run, it would be better to have us, rather than GS, left standing on Estonia. They are GS - the Apolyton All-stars; we are the Vox nobodies.
Ghengis explained his long-term goals which he shared with NeuD and has their agreement on. It goes like this - GoW and Vox take out GS. GoW and NeuD and Vox take out RP. Then we go after Lego. After that ??? he didn't say.
I say we do GS first - RP because we agreed to it - then we will see.
And the final consideration - they may not trust us. Both are pissed that we built the city, after the big 4 civ chat - where they intepreted it that we would not. And we did in Lux. So - we may have to see this from their point of view.
Comments? Thoughts?
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