Survival planning

[HarryH]

What is currently happening and ideas about what to do are distributed amongst many threads; mostly the various FA threads and the move thread. I thought it would be better to create a separate thread so the discussion can be in one place.

First, I think the two galleys Beta was planning on sending to Legos Minor is a good idea. It gives us a just in case backup or a head start on the exodus if it comes to that. If we do not need them we can always gift any cities we setup there to Lego. Another option would be to setup a two-part empire. It would not be optimum but we appear to have no alternatives for expansion.

After that the question is do we stay on Estonia or evacuate? I am not ready to make a decision yet so I would like to talk about things we can do that will help either way.

We need more galleys. They will either be needed to send units to Legos Minor, transfer units to/from Bob, or break holes in a naval blockade. With the harbor, Wittlich should be set to build veteran galleys.

We can use one galley to send workers to Bob. They can be used to help build a road from Port Isolation to the GoW capital. The road serves three purposes:

1. It will be easier for GoW to send reinforcements, if needed.
2. It will be harder for GS to enforce a naval blockade. With a harbors in Wittlich and Port Isolation and a road to the GoW capital GS will not be able to block trade unless they put naval units in between Wittlich and Port Isolation. In that tight straight they will be vulnerable to catapults and attacks from galleys that hide in the cities. If Port Isolation does not have a harbor we should ask GoW to build one.
3. If we have to evacuate we could send some units to Bob where they can walk across part of the continent to be picked up by our galleys returning from Legos Minor. Only workers, warriors and defensive units would be put on Bob so the Bobians do not feel threatened. Bob can also serve as a staging point if we need to evacuate quickly.

The workers will need a defensive unit as escort in case a barbarian appears.

We need to prepare a second set of galleys with settlers and military units to send to Legos Minor. If we do evacuate we will run into gold problems when we pull up our existing cities. We need to have new cities established ASAP. The more settlers we have on the way the quicker we can pull up stakes on Estonia if we need to. In the GS thread Nathan mentioned about giving us 10 turns or so to evacuate. I don't think it can happen that fast. It takes nearly 20 turns to get to Legos Minor and establish a city. I would like to have some cities there before we pull up cities on Estonia.

Defense. GS will not be happy with our evacuation rate so we need to keep them from plowing through Elipolis or landing in our core. Whether we decide to stay on Estonia or evacuate we will need a defense for a while.

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Edit by Eli : Fixed the list coding. Had nothing better to do.

[Beta]

Great plan about the road harry. I hadn't thought of that.

And Lego is offering us an initial city - they will build it where we determone on Legos minor. We can get things started and use new settlers from galleys to fill out the plan.

But yes - either way it will take a while.

And I am still in favour of defending North Estonia.

[HarryH]

Thanks Eli. I did not have time to check it when I posted.

[Beta]

OK - I will start posting general 'current situation' posts here - unless they are directly turn move related - or FA related.

NOTICE: the chat with Gow, RP, and Lego is scheduled for 9pm edt this evening. The channel will be #TigerTalks and the password is Kitty. It will be on Apolyton irc.

I am preparing a discussion paper to distribute shortly - otherwise - I will take up the first half hour of the chat with an update and proposal.

If you can make the chat - that would be great.

[Beta]

Backgrounder sent to other teams for tonight's chat:

June 12 Chat - Backgrounder

I thought it would be useful to distribute some points prior to the chat to save time for discussion.

To start with - here is the peace deal we offered to GS:

- they get south Estonia
- we gift Dissidentville to them-
- we do a public mea culpa - Beta to do that.
- we post a public non-agression pact with GS into the next era. Jon to do this
- we will provide engineering in approx 15 turns.
-we provide our free tech going into the next era.
-we will not attack Inchon
-we are allowed to safely evacuate all our troops from South Estonia
- this includes Harry and his gang trapped on the mountains in the SE. As a show of good will - they will move down to tha plains where they will be easy targets. (We did this and the units were eliminated.)
-and ask if they want to move Inchon - maybe two tiles south. They will still get the prime enhanced grassland tiles - but our cultural borders will not be overlapping.
-we also agreed to forfeit any access to iron, as a commitment to future non-aggression

This was rejected by GS. However - they still put a peace deal back up on the screen, and we sent back the deal unaccepted, with Dissidentville added. That was the same turn they eliminated our Immortals who basically left themselves undefended. They were damaged and would have eventually gone down.

We are told the GS hawks out-number the doves. We are also told that our deception going into this wear was just too good, and they don't feel they could ever trust us. They are willing to give us some limited time to get off of North Estonia, but they do not want us to stay. They want the entire continent.

So - now - GS has landed 7 units in North Estonia. But the good news is that they did not reinforce Inchon. We can take Inchon this turn or next. But we do not have many units in North Estonia. It will be a scramble to defend against the intruders.

What we propose is that:

1. Vox publicly post our peace proposal. This will make it look like we are trying to win over world opinion and that you are all still sitting on the fence.

2. This will hopefully protect the RP galley which is now in amongst the GS galleys to avoid being taken out on the GS move.

3. RP land its two horsemen on North Estonia - at a spot to be determined. This will depend on what GS does with its troops. We hope they will attack Elipolis which will keep them further south. The attackers of Inchon will soon be there.

4. RP land its other two units asap.

5. GoW land its 4 committed units (btw - we will provide RoP's to RP and GoW).

6. At the same time as landing the units - and once RP's galley is safe - GoW, RP, and Lego all declare their support for Vox in messages to GS. I suspect this may be sufficient to make them think twice about this. Also - our GA has just ended so GS' will end shortly as well. This turn or next.

The good side of this plan is that it does not involve major troop commitments. But GS does not need to know that. The downside is if they call the bluff. By then we will have ringed North Estonia to prevent landings - and loaded all our troops into Elipolis.

There may be political fall out for the three of you - but I don't think GS could risk that level of isolation. Even with NeuD not at the table. Where do they stand on this by the way? The strong, silent types.

The hint of a future tech trade embargo would be something to think about. You could all convince them that Vox is like a little child which has learned its lesson and will sit in its corner for the rest of the game.

But the big concern to all of us is if GS does get the entire continent. I think it will be easier standing up to them now than after they have developed all of Estonia.

See you in the chat. .... Beta.

[HarryH]

Beta, where did you hear that GS landed on North Estonia? It's not in our latest move pics. Do we know the complement of their force?

I am getting ready to head home now. Post the info about where and when the chat is.

[Beta]

Chat is done. Sorry Harry, just saw your post. The channel is posted in the previous post.

Good news from the chat. The world community is solidly behind us. We post publicly - and they will all support us publicly and/or in direct PM's to GS. They will all write NeuD to get them to come on side.

GoW will land 3 troops this turn and one next.

RP is still wavering. Togas is a bit of a fence sitter.

Huge turn-out for the chat - which indicates the interest. At least three from each team - and maybe 15 in total. Maybe more. I should have counted.

Harry - the latest save shows the GS troops just north of Elipolis. I will send it around.

All wish us well - and understand the political fall-out from this.

And we have a plan for getting us iron - if only in intermittent perios dor upgrades. And ND is apparently voting on horses for Vox. RP has confirmed that.

(Although horses aren't much use now )

OK - will play the recent save - and send stuff around.

[Beta]

Have posted the public announcement - as we had previously discussed and as agreed to in tonight's chat.

Should be fun.

[Eli]

A poll conducted in GS asked whether people supported any agreement that will allow us to remain on N. Estonia. Less than 5 players supported it.

[HarryH]

I took a look at the save. That landing they made N of Elipolis could be the death blow. Even if those two spearman on the hill reinforce Elipolis they should still be able to take the city. That will prevent the rest of our forces from getting north. They could reinforce Inchon if they want but they will gain a lot more by taking Elipolis. They should have an extra chariot that could then walk up into Harry's Hideout. Even if we take Inchon, it will auto-raze, our units will be wounded and theirs will heal quickly in the city with the free barracks. Those two chariots can wreak havoc until another load of reinforcements arrive. They will slowly take our cities and we will start losing units because we will not have the gold to support them. With all those pikes moving up from the south our ability to even move our units will be limited. In 10 turns or less we may not have much left, except for that settler that just set sail. Very grim. Will GS be swayed by public opinion? Will it be enough? Will it be too late? The next couple of turns should tell us.

[Eli]

Here's the deal :

GS is mightily pissed off on Beta and on the rest of us.
I share Harry's view, we'll lose the war very soon.

I'm trying to get us a better Exodus deal, and it looks like it's working but please dont argue with them on the forums, about anything, no matter what.

[Beta]

I am not convinced about us losing the war that quickly.

They may take Elipolis - but we may get lucky. If they do take it - they may lose units in the process.

GoW is landing with units this turn. And RP this turn or shortly. We may need to push our way back into Elipolis - but we should have the strength to do it.

I agree this is not the best option. As I said in the moves thread - I screwed up in the previous turn by not covering that tile.

My concern is those east coast galley and how soon they will be back north.

[Eli]

Beta :

Dont play the turn if you get it.

I'm on the brink of an exodus agreement here, we might even start the plan this turn if it all goes well.

[Beta]

Eli - will do.

But can we PLEASE discuss the details here.

I for one still think defense of North Estonia is possible - especially after the pasting we gave them at Inchon last turn. GoW is landing 'peacekeepers' this turn. And RP either this turn or next. Lego even has other enticements in the work for GS.

I need to review the saves to see where the east coast galleys were x number of turns ago. This will tell us when we might expect to see more GS invaders - and if it will give us sufficient time to take out the ones that are there now.

And we need to see what their move was - did they indeed take Elipolis - or was our defense successful. Maybe we got lucky for once.

[Eli]

They took Elipolis and from what Shiber says we cant take Inchon even if we win all battles because we dont have enough troops.