Why we should serious determine who should be our Allies.

[Thrumble]

With the next age around the corner, I think we should have a serious discussion on who are allies should be.

Two civs will soon have their Unique Units and both of those civs have shown no hesitation for war. This is an obvious argument in their forums to do just that.

Three civs are about to see their Unique Units outlive their usefulness. And they have yet to utilize them, this puts pressure on them to do something before they miss their opportunity.

There aren't a lot of tech choices to research and city sites appear to be disappearing fast.

Now the enigma which caused me to start this discussion: do we want to ally with strong dependable teams like Lego and GS or weaker less stable teams like GOW and Vox?

While most would consider the answer obvious, think twice. Yes, Lego and GS will make good allies now, but the allies we choose now will be our opponents in the final stage. If we choose to side with the weaker and dumber teams the final wars should be easier for us. We also have the opportunity to recruit fresh members from the fallen teams. Might not GS and Lego offer prime candidates to augment our team for the final purging of our glorious planet?

[Aidun]

I have had this discussion with Togas in the days preceding to the war betweem ND and Lux.

The question was whether we should continue the alliance with Lux, or not.

I suggested that it was not in our advantage to have an alliance with Lux: they were opportunistic and acted regardless of what we would think about it. I proposed that Spain would better be served if we would ally with a strong nation like ND: Spain would benefit from the protection of an alliance with ND.

Togas the opposite: we should continue the alliance with Lux, the might be opportunistic and ignoring our opinion, but they were weak and thus easier to influence. If we would bind ourselves to a strong nation, we would loose our possibility to have our own foreign policy: we would also become dependent on such a nation.

[ooc]This illustrates the difference between a the European and an American view on alliances: Europeans like to ally with the US for safety, Americans like to ally with Europe because they are weaker and thus easier to influence[/ooc]

This is a universal problem: every time we are thinking of allying we should question ourselves this question and choose among the two views.
Sometimes the first will serve you best, sometimes the second.

Aidun Cian the older

[DAVOUT]

There are other reasons than protection and influence; the timing for instance during the period where the ND UU is not obsolete.

Our problem with ND is to decide when we will have to destroy them, or at least reduce their strenght enough so that they will be no longer a rival for the win. Meantime they could be our ally, not for protection, but for control.

[GodKing]

You don't get it. None of them are allies. They are all enemies. Some of them we just have a temporary peace with in order for them to let down their guard and to take from them what they have.

Think for a minute. What are the only ways to win this game? Tell me how we are going to do it? We need all of this continent of Bob if we are to have a chance. The sooner we get it the better off we will be.

Lego is all alone, going for space ship, and has 2 times as much room as we have set aside for ourselves. If you don't think they are our number one LONG TERM threat - who is and why? We should be planning on taking out ND NOW, or at least castrating them. I want to win this game, not just survive til the end. War is our best option.

[Aidun]

I warn you for this: don't try to defeat all your rivals too soon. Trade and partnership are forms of cooperation, which is more effective than defection.

Ever heard of the Prisoner's Dilemma? The Prisoner's Dilemma is a game which often reflects the attitude of nations in the international politics.

[ooc]The original story tells of two prisoners questioned separately by a prosecuter. The prosecuter knows that they committed a bank robbery but has only enough evidence to convict them of illegal posession of a gun unless one of them confesses. The prosecuter tells each prisoner that if he confesses and his partner doesn't confess, he will go free. If his partner confesses and he doesn't, he will get a long prison term for a bankrobbery (while the partner goes free). If both confess they will get a somewhat reduced term. If neither confesses they will be convicted on the gun charge and serve a short sentence. The story assumes neither prisoner will have a chance to retaliate later, thet only the immediate outcomes matter and that each prisoner cares only about himself.
This game has a single solution: both proisoners confess. Each will reason as follows: "If my partner is going to confess, then I should confess too, because I will get a slightly shorter sentence that way. If my partner is not going to confess, then I should still confess because I will go free that way, instead of serving a shorter scentence" The other prisoner follows the same reasoning. The dilemma is that by following their individual rational choices both prosoners will end up serving a fairly long scentence when they could have both have both served a short one by cooperating (keeping their mouths shut).

Here is a summary of the text:
The numbers indicate the amount of profit. The numbers should be read left (Prisoner 2) right (Prisoner 1).
If prisoner 1 defects prisoner 2 (P1 confesses) while prisoner 2 coopeates with prisoner 1 (P2 keeps mouth shut), prisoner 1 gets 4 while prisoner 2 gets only 1: prisoner 1 will go free and prisoner 2 will sit a long sentence. (Goldstein, J.S. (2003), International Relations. New YorK: Longman. page 88-89)

		Prisoner 1
		Cooperate	Defect
Prisoner 2	Cooperate	(3,3)
(1,4)
	Defect	(4,1)
(2,2)

[/ooc]

The outcome for Spanish - Arabian relations:
The numbers indicate the amount of profit. The numbers should be read left (left team) right (upper team).
If Spain defects Arabia (Spain attacks Arabia) while Arabia cooperates with Spain, Spain gets 4 while Arabia gets only 1.

		Spain (RP)
		Cooperate	Defect
Arabia (ND)	Cooperate	(3,3)
(1,4)
	Defect	(4,1)
(2,2)

You are likely to think that it is for us best to declare war to NDwhile ND cooperates. But imagine the reality, will ND retreat their troops from their cities because we want to conquer them? Never! ND will defect us as soon as they see we defect them. Result: we get both but 2 while we could have got 3 if we would both have cooperated.

[ooc]Don't think I'm inventing this just now, this is the main theory to declare and analyze the conflict between India and Pakistan, between China and Taiwan, African countries, etc. This is scientifically proved.[/ooc]

Aidun Cian the older

[GodKing]

I know and have heard of this. It can be and has been true IRL, but how does it work out in this game? How are they planning on winning? They know that they need more room also - so if I were them I would work out a deal with GOW to take us on when they get their UU's. Gow gets the iron they need, they both get the space they want, and they both get their GA at a highly advantagious time, a time far earlier than we get our UU and have a good oportunity to get an easy GA. By that reasoning they are plannign on attacking us - so why not cut them off at the knees? All we need to do is take their 3-4 central cities and they will efectivaly be out of the game. And those cities are oh so close to our western cities that they should be worried. And with their UU the jungle will not protect us for long now, will it.

[Aidun]

That is just what I mean Godking, when GoW and ND try to conquer us, They will get a relative disadvantage. All other states except ND, GoW and we cooperate. All other states get 3 while bob-states get 2 if ND would know this and take it seriously, they can count out that they will get a disadvantage compared to the other states. This of course assuming that ND and GoW can't conquer any cities of us: we defend our cities so well that they fail occupying them or we burn them down to the ground when it is almost sure that they'll conquer the cities.

Aidun

[Thrumble]

Your assumption is that the other three teams will embargo ND and GOW. I think we have already established that GOW and Vox are most logically working together against GS.

Here is the worst case scenario I come up with based on my assumptions:

Vox and GOW will declare war on GS.

GOW and ND will declare war on us.

We can't assist GS and GS won't assist us as we will both be busy defending ourselves. Lego won't assist either of us because they will busy themselves building their Island Fortress Lego (IFL).

ND concentrates on us, Vox concentrates on GS, and GOW outflanks and counterstrikes based on optimum opportunity - like the sleazy vultures they are.

Now this scenario is assumption and theory and there is not sufficient evidence to guarantee that it will happen but it is possible and a fairly brilliant strategy if coordinated properly.

[MrWhereItsAt]

I think all of what you say is a fair assessment of GoW's ideal mindset, Thrumble, based on their behaviour and reputation as "mercenaries for hire"

GoW and Vox HAVE come to some agreement on that former Vox city, and that makes me think that perhaps Vox is currently the highest bidder in GoW's eyes. ND has posted that they are officially at war with Vox, and we might need to be ready to throw in our lot and choose an ally over the others very soon. I think we can be at peace with ND, whereas GoW is best beaten as soon as we are able. I see GoW as the maverick little nation between two opposing yet cordial superpowers. An outside power comes in and aids them, hoping to get GoW to incite instability in the relationships between the two others, leading to a situation that Vox can take advantage of, where we don't cooperate.

[OliverFA]

We don't have much to win from a war against GoW. If that happened Nd would take almost all the land. By the time we reached their lands we would only have a few cities to conquer (if any). In adition this cities would be so far from our capitol that the corruption would be extremely high. The same reasoning is valid for GoW. If we have to choose a civ to attack I would go for ND.

But anyway I would finish settling out land before. Giving priority to the "contested lands" between us and ND, and later backfilling to our south.

[Togas]

This is an extremely important question that should continue to be debated. These are my thoughts on this topic:

1) Having a foreign ally is only useful if we have a foreign enemy to fight.

2) The only nation who's cities we might find useful would be ND, and those would only be marginally useful. Consider the corruption of Santiago and Vigo. ND cities would be even worse. We do not need to capture any further resources or luxuries. The only reason we'd go to war would be to destroy a competator.

3) Other nations may want to go to war with us to seize our luxuries and resources. Only ND would find out cities useful, and our Cow Valley cities would be rather useful.

4) The only nations who seem somewhat trustworthy are ND, GS, and Legoland. ND is our closest competator, GS and Legoland are isolationist and would never get involved in a war on our side unless they had a very very compelling reason. Vox is the least powerful nation with the lowest score and may do something crazy in a desperate attempt to regain some power. GoW is utterly opportunistic and unpredictable, and are also a nation on the decline.

--Togas

[Aidun]

So what we should do is try to disturb the forming of this world order, let us have strong alliances with Vox and ND instead of cooperating as isolationist towards them. It will benefit us.

Aidun

[GodKing]

Togas - If we follow what you say, we loose. Period.
In order to win, there are three ways in this type of game.

Space ship. This is what Lego is obviously going for. They will win as they have a huge continent with lots of resources, no enemies to compete with, and a huge industrial base. They will potentially launch around 1800 AD as they have never had to waist time on any offensive units except for fighting the occasional barbarian encampment in the early game. IF we are to have ANY sort of competing chance – we need to take over all of Bob as soon as possible.

Victory Points – let each team that survives to the end and compare points. This is what we appear to be doing if we follow Togas’ plan as outlined above. Of course we will never get to this point so we all might as well bend over and ask all the other teams to be generous in their use of lube.

Conquest / Domination – We rule the world. Simple and straight forward. This is what I suggest we attempt. As once we have control of Bob – either one of the other continents should be enough. This is where our UU will be very useful.

So – A plan of conquest is what we need. And a way of making Bob a useful land. First, start preparing swordsmen. We need as many as we can get. Second – build the FP in or near Cow Valley. March against ND and take their core cities. Offer them terms – surrender or live on until we decide to take you out. If they surrender they are more then welcome to join us. We need to take out their capitol and the other cities that are near it and have access to their resources – horses and iron. Consolidate our forces, and then march on GoW. No surrender, no retreat. We take them out or are taken out. Once we declare war on GoW they must be killed – same as Lux was. Then get around to cleaning up the dregs of ND. ND must be castrated PRIOR to their GA and their UU. It would also be far easier to do the same with GoW, but our logistics may not support it. With a Great Leader (hoping we get one) we move our palace into the ND / GoW lands to make them useful. We all remember – Spain needs to get the FP ASAP to be productive. Good placement close to the existing palace means it can be built quickly and cheaply, and then the use of a GL will open up the North to us. Then we research towards Marines and Tanks – and start to pray we can do a good invasion.

[History Guy]

Senor God King is, as always, correct.

I have been asking for this war for some time. Now that we are the most powerful nation on earth, may we now lead our troops into the red vitals of the beast?

If we do not take chances, we can never survive. Do you really think that the Arabs will allow Spain to continue surviving as it has? Once it has Ansar Warriors, we will all be ridden down, and slaughtered.

I beg of you, make a decision.

Fernand de History Guy Calamari
Squid Baron

[Togas]

Had a short conversation with Donegeal of GoW this morning. Donegeal isn't official, so let's not take this too seriously, but he is pitching this plan to his country:

GoW (and possibly other nations) ally with Vox to attack GS.

Reason: He believes that GS is the best team in the game and will most likely win if no one stops them. He also believest that Vox is weak and easily manipulated. He believes that Vox's friendship with GS is mostly due to fear and intimidation and that Vox will not go to war with GS without encouragement.

He believes (and I agree) that it would be better to have Vox in control of that island than GS as Vox is not a long term competator.

I'm not sure what GoW gets out of this idea, maybe just money or maybe they get to reel in Vox as a military partner.

However, Donegeal is thinking along the lines that I am thinking about how we're going to win this game...


My position on how Spain will win this game:

War now may or may not give us ND's cities. ND, in my analysis, is the most potent military force we could face at this time. They will get stronger with Ansars, of course, but they are too strong for us now to face without an alliance, and I'm not sure we can count on a GoW alliance.

By the time we're "able" to fight ND, they will have Ansars. Not a good time to go to war at all ... they'll get GA and we'll be unable to hold any of their cities due to ferocious counter-attacks.

Taking cities from any other nation, at this point in the game, is pointless and needlessly draws attention to Spain, as well as negative public opinion.

What I want to do is this:

Take advantage of what we have been given: We have a WEALTH of land and Luxuries, we're Commercial and Religious, the more we grow the stronger we become. We need to stay strong to protect our holdings, and we need to stay involved in foreign affairs to try to keep our enemies weak or even, and make sure that no one jumps ahead of us too much. Given the chance I'd love to beat up a few of our neighbors to ensure that they remain weaker than us...

We need to make sure that someone else out there is in the lead. One nation. Legoland or GS. Someone that we can point to and whisper "they're going to win this game if we don't do something." We need to slink around in 2nd place and as the game is coming to a close, unite the weaker nations into a Grand Alliance whereby they take posession of the cities and resources of the greatest power (Lego or GS).

We become #1 by default and at that point we either beat up on #2 or we confidently build our industry towards a spaceship OR we build UN (if the next powerful nation is a nation we're sure the others won't vote for).

World Conquest would be great if we weren't playing against humans, and the humans didn't care that we were winning. If we take over Bob we will be THE target for every nation that wants to win and we will face a world united against us. I'd rather get the backing of the world against someone else and secretly slide into the #1 spot as a result of our Grand Alliance.

--Togas