WAR Between Lux and ND!!!

[Togas]

Dejon has posted the screenshots given to us by Trip.

5 ND swordsmen have moved next to Lux's southern city. Trip was very candid with us in chat this evening, revealing that they have 3 cities and 1 settler, one of those cities will be sacked next turn as they cannot defend it.

They are preparing a counter offensive to protect their capital city, which is aprox 8 tiles from the warzone. They are also preparing to link iron and mass upgrade warriors they are currently producing.

Trip is begging us to get involved. I have agreed that we will get involved diplomaticly threatening ND that if they start this war, it may lead to us and GoW fighting them.

GoW is a wildcard. Ghengis has stated that he would get involved to help Lux, but we have also heard that they want a bidding war and if their price is not met, too bad.

We MAY become involved militarily by using Mad. Exp. and GuOps to perform some minor terrorist roles, but only if GoW also becomes involved. If not, too bad. I'm not throwing away Spanish boys.

TOMORROW I want all team members in chat to discuss these events and what Spain should do. I want you also to discuss with any GoW people you know to get a feel for what they will do. Hopefully, a summit will occur at 6pm EST between us, GoW, and Lux to see if a temporary alliance will occur.

--Togas

[Hot Mustard]

Thoughts:
-I wonder if we prompted this is any way by telling ND we didn't want them settling to the south.
-I'm glad those swordsmen are heading north(east) rather than towards Saragossa and/or the silk city site
-I wonder if ND would consider waiting 1 turn to let our alliance with Lux lapse
-We cannot prevent the war, and our few spare warriors won't likely make any difference in the outcome
-Our diplomats need to find out ND's goals in the war - are they just after that city (which
was an insult, so close to theirs) or are they aiming for the destruction of Lux?

[Arnelos]

Chatting with Trip after Togas and E_T left...

First, what Trip sent to Borc

* Trip sends a forceful PM to Borc
Trip: The approaching of your army towards our city and refusal to move your units from our land is unacceptable. We demand you stand down now, or you will be subject to war with the alliance of the Glory of War and Roleplay teams in addition to Lux Invicta. If you are willing to risk a war against the rest of this continent, then so be it. This is your final warning.
Trip: muahahahahaaaaaaa

I asked him whether he thought he was overplaying his hand, especially with regard to Glory of War, and he said "nah". He's a fool... he STILL doesn't seem able to see that he's been beat and it's time to ask for terms...

Perhaps we have to ask ND what their terms are for him, since he seems incapable.

He shared that he had "excellent" relations with GoW and that GhengisFarb had never said anything bad to him other than that incident recently that has since been cleared up. Which, to me, is an indication that GhengisFarb fully realizes that Trip is a fool and thinks (correctly) that he's "playing" Trip. This might explain why GhengisFarb, since his strategy was working so WELL on Trip, was frustrated that it WASN'T working on Togas (just a theory...)

As E_T said in the civ3rp channel when I copied and pasted the above...

E_T_Smoking: Hes a megomaniac
* E_T_Smoking is now known as E_T
E_T: It's going make our relations with ND very hard
E_T: I don't loke it at all
E_T: *like
Arnelos: neither do I...
Arnelos: that's where we explain to ND that Trip is.... overplaying his hand
Arnelos: we can fully accept Lux's loss of that one city
Arnelos: but nothing further
E_T: hmmm, I don't see were we can really prevent it from going any further than that, especially with Trip being in charge of his team
Arnelos: that IS the problem...

Second, that Trip and BFM basically ARE the entire Lux Invicta team

Trip: if Ninot beats me againn (and he probably will), I think it may be time for this ol' guy to retire
Arnelos: bah - if Lux Invicta survives, you'll still be team leader, likely
Trip: haha
Trip: of course... I'm the only one that does anything
Arnelos: or is this incident going to cause your downfall inside Lux? ;p
Trip: if I died then Lux would probably collapse ;P
Trip: nah
Trip: sad as it may seem my team has kinda died
Arnelos: we figured that...
Trip: I guess all that holiday candy really got to them o_o
Arnelos: between the postcount and that we rarely saw anyone other than you and BFM
Trip: BFM and I run the show
Trip: the first great purge is about to go through for inactive members
Trip: I estimate 1/2 membership will be cut
Arnelos: and Apoc's admission that he hadn't visited your forum in some insane number of days
Trip: 45 or so :P

and...

Chat is now tentatively scheduled for 6 p.m. EST tomorrow (to be rescheduled based upon GhengisFarb's schedule).

I would assume that since our great despot Togas will be present and representing the team to both the other teams (and both Trip and GhengisFarb will be present), it would be best for our team to remain SILENT other than Togas himself. We can discuss matters in civ3rp and make suggestions to Togas there (which means Togas has to watch civ3rp like a hawk...).

Does that work?

[Togas]

Originally posted by dejon
-We cannot prevent the war, and our few spare warriors won't likely make any difference in the outcome
-Our diplomats need to find out ND's goals in the war - are they just after that city

Agreed on both parts.

History Guy and any other Spanish citizen who has any contacts with ND, or happens to see them in chat -- we must find out what ND wants. What are their goals. Is it one city or all of Lux?

Frankly, Lux deserves to lose that city. However, removing Lux from the north right now seriously unbalances the power in the north and puts Cow Valley at risk from a Neu Dem offensive against us once Lux is out of the way.

--Togas

[Arnelos]

We should talk to GoW and coordinate to go to ND and tell them that ND taking Lux's border city is perfectly acceptable to both GoW and RP... and then negotiate with ND about any other terms.

If GoW and RP can negotiate together acceptable terms with ND, that will work. As for Lux, they're just going to have to live with whatever is left to them.

Our interest is not Lux's wellbeing, it's ND's containment. GoW likely has the exact same interest.

I dearly hope that GoW sees this situation with enough clarity to recognize that... GoW and RP Team have a VERY powerful common interest here.

[Arnelos]

Togas, please note that our two posts cross-posted. I figure you may not have noticed what I posted about Trip's continued talking before you went offline.

Just want to make sure you see it

[Thrumble]

I haven't seen this possibility examined that much, but I feel it is at least worth mentioning.

What if ND and GoW have actually been working together for awhile? Both teams have expressed irritation/bordering on anger at Lux for things Lux is supposed to have done. ND is upset over the placement of Lux's city and Lux's attempt to hunt down an ND settler. GoW had Lux in a position to capture its capitol and then recently the supposed breaking of their trade treaty.

If ND/GoW are cordinating this impending war with Lux, and actually have good terms, this could possibly be turned to a war on Roleplay.

And I don't think that would fare well for us.

[astrologix]

Great Ruler Togas :

We need a stronger army, and connect to our iron ASAP...

Barracks ! Walls !

Astronicus

[ruby_maser]

Re: WAR Between Lux and ND!!!

First, I agree with Señor Astrologix about the dire need to maintain parity with ND militarily. It seems I missed the meaning of the non-aggression pact as being a run at cow valley when it was probably part of their preparations for war. Unfortunately, it binds our hands to anything but diplomatic measures (unless we are prepared for the consequences and I don't think we presently).

It is imperative that we understand ND's intentions and their goals. However, we also need to have a candid dialogue with Trip about just how capable they are of mounting a successful counterattack. He seems to be very forthcoming about the situation though; I don't think it would be a problem to find out concrete numbers on how long it will take for them to hook up iron, upgrade units, and organize and execute any counter-offensive. Sadly, info like that will be necessary to decide whether or not we are going to have to leave them to their fate.

Second, this turn of events makes a Publics Works planning session all the more vital for us (hopefully by no later than this weekend) and the need for a competent SMC to step forward soon. Infrastructure, REX issues, resource acquisition, and defense strategy can no longer wait.

[ThePlagueRat]

By God and the glory of Spain... Now I think it's the right time to switch form REX-mode to KILL-mode.
(doing the stuff already mentioned by astrologix)


A typical 'backstab the weakest' situation can arise here:
(a good old routine which has survived all way from civ1)


- The 'wildcard' GoW might be hungry for spoils of war.
If ND does conquer Trip alone, they get all the land and gets to be most poweful. GoW might want some of this land, and launch an attack on Trip too. (or they might be cooperating already.)

It is logical that GoW might try to compete with ND in aggressiveness... Especially in case GoW too got a serious attack force. ( which we should try to find out more about, questioning Trip ASAP. )

AND: We can not interfere yet... Just observe and prepare!

[DAVOUT]

I see two possible situations depending of the actual military strength of ND :
- if they have only this stack of five swordsmen, they will take and destroyed the city, making room for their own neighbouring city, then take Lux treasury in the peace treaty; this could be helped by GoW showing a small stack in the vicinity of their capital in order to deter them from sending their army far away.
- if they have more military units (which I doubt : five swordsmen in 1725 is not ridiculous), they could reach Lux capital within five or six turns and wipe them out.

The first case would not modify dramatically the balance of power. The second would, but we cant help.

Therefore, we have to convince ND that the survival of Lux is no longer a problem provided that GoW does not seize the opportunity offered by the weakening of Lux to try something, and we have to convince GoW that he commits himself not to attack Lux if ND stops the war after taking the Lux city.

But our diplomats have to anticipate some difficulties in talking to ND after our settling on the silk.

[LzPrst]

after we have taken the silk and consolidated our border we should get iron with the next settler, we must have a counteroffence! our military might is ANEMIC!
btw, do we have a barrax in any of our ciduads?

a strong military will hopefully function as a deterrent.
remember, ND might consider us taking the silk as a treacherous deed (insane as they are ) and that army of 5 swordsmen (with more possibly coming and being built) could wipe us out of cow valley.

we must strengthen our defences!

[Thud]

Way I see it, theres two ways to go about this:
1) We sign an alliance with ND and GoW, and continue REXing.
2) We build up our military, intervene on behalf of Lux.

I'm not truly convinced of which is better. I beleive that if ND allows Lux to continue in peace after taking that city, number 1 is certainly what we should do.

[Arnelos]

Regarding Trip's ability to defend himself (notice I'm referring to their entire team as Trip, given that that is the truth...):

Trip reported that he could have 3 swordsmen up and ready to commit 8 turns from now.

Unfortunately, he reported that even if he delays ND, he expects they will take only 7-8 turns to reach Invictus, the Lux capital.

He implored that ND has caught him with his pants down and there's very little he can do other than slow down and cause attritrion casualties to ND, hoping that GoW and RP Team can cause enough distraction or nuisance on other borders to induce ND to end the conflict.

Trip reported that GhengisFarb had told him GoW could send 2 veteran horsemen into the conflict within 4 turns, but that's the soonest they could have anything available.

So basically, Trip is royally f*cked.

Why on earth he doesn't seem to fully recognize that it's well past time for him to ask ND for their terms is beyond me... he's a complete fool for making THREATS at ND rather than capitulating right now

[Arnelos]

Originally posted by LzPrst
after we have taken the silk and consolidated our border we should get iron with the next settler, we must have a counteroffence! our military might is ANEMIC!
btw, do we have a barrax in any of our ciduads?

a strong military will hopefully function as a deterrent.
remember, ND might consider us taking the silk as a treacherous deed (insane as they are ) and that army of 5 swordsmen (with more possibly coming and being built) could wipe us out of cow valley.

we must strengthen our defences!

Funny you should ask about the barracks... that's the next item in Madrid's queue. The barracks production will also be speeded by the worker south of Madrid chopping down a forest and the extra 10 shields going toward our barracks.

If this situation gets worse, I can change the queue in Madrid for after the barracks from settler to archers (and lots of them). Veteran Archer stacks are all that we can do until Madrid is connected to horses or roads.

Speaking of horses and roads, we should be honest about that is why we founded Saragossa. It is our only source of horses. Tell ND that it would be COMPLETELY unreasonable for them to expect us not to claim our only available source of horses and that, in addition, we made it perfectly clear we were headed for that valley from the very beginning of our contact with ND. If ND had a problem with it, they should have brought it up sooner.

It's also true that ND will have PLENTY of land north of the jungle. Especially with the defeat of Lux, there is nothing to stop them from having even more land than we have below the jungle.