A Continental Alliance Strategy... (needs some discussion)

[Arnelos]

I've been reading up on events that have taken place in my absense and here's what I gather which is important to thinking about this potential strategy:

- Lux is running warriors around in ND territory and has founded a city 1 tile outside of ND territory in order to provoke ND into declaring war on Lux.

- Lux has done this because our defensive alliance with Lux honor bounds us to declare war on ND if Lux is attacked by ND - thus guaranteeing that Lux will have our help if GoW and ND team up.

- Lux has also approached GoW about teaming up against ND. Given ND's impressive strength, this is not a bad move.

So...

Lux believes they are guaranteed that we are on their side in a Lux-ND conflict and are using this assumption to fuel their push to war and ignore our protesting.

Here's the idea...

THE STRATEGY

1. While we do not tell ND that we have an alliance with Lux Invicta, we do tell them that while we are honor bound by a non-aggression agreement not to help ND against Lux if ND attacks Lux, we are not bound by any agreement in helping ND if LUX ATTACKS FIRST. In so doing, we STRONGLY ENCOURAGE ND not to attack Lux, no matter how much Lux does to attempt to provoke ND into a fight. Tell them it would be preferable for them to force Lux into making the first strike, though it would be preferable to have no war at all.

2. We then sign a defensive alliance with ND which states that ND will come to our aid if we are attacked and we will come to ND's aid if they are attacked. Such an alliance, coupled with the defensive alliance with Lux on similar terms, would mean that Lux can't declare war on ND w/o us siding with ND and ND can't declare war on Lux w/o us siding with Lux. ALSO, it means that if either ND or Lux attacks us, the other is honor-bound to help defend us (which they likely will relish, since they want to pound the other one ANYWAYS). Furthermore, if GoW or another power attack us, BOTH Lux AND ND are honor-bound to attack GoW and help defend us. If GoW attacks either Lux or ND, we must attack GoW, but we'd probably do that anyways

I'm tempted to call this whole thing my Bismarkian dual-alliance strategy...

OPTIONAL:

3. We make the defensive alliance ND known to Lux and, if we can renegotiate that term of the Lux alliance, we make the Lux alliance known to ND. Both become aware that they cannot attack the other w/o Spanish forces siding with the defender.

4. We kindly suggest that GoW is a better target

Gloria Belli Delenda Est.

----------------------

This needs some more discussion... I would relish being able to nix Trip's plan for a Lux-ND war, however... such a war is clearly against our interests and I'd particularly relish being able to out-manuever Trip while he's taking us for granted (as he's doing right now).

Ultimately, I believe that ND is the most trustworthy of the three AND they act as our buffer to Lux and GoW (which is why I want to keep them around), but I want to keep all three of them weak and divided, but not QUITE at each others' throats...

Discussion, please...

[Aidun]

Thanks that you have put new life to my alliance/agreement strategy. This was what I proposed about a month ago and am still trying to get into policy. I appreciate your help with putting it into our official policy.

In the past I even suggested to make agreements with everybody and act a bit like the US/NATO act in our world: the great peacemaker. Now I don't think we should have an alliance with GoW as we have seen they are not to be trusted.

I still doubt if we should encourage ND or Lux to make war with GoW, as they only will get any benefit of it (or GoW if they win), but we get no benefit.

I am however strongly in favor of having alliances with both ND and Lux.

Aidun

[adaMada]

One note of importance -- we already have a nonagression pact with GoW (which we have just renewed). I think that'd be good in this case because it'd make us secure all around.

My biggest concern with this plan is that it takes away our option as to weather we enter this war -- we'd be diplomatically signing it away. To be honest, it looks like there's gonna be a war up there no matter what we do, and though this might stop it from occuring, we've no guarentee that it will. If there is a war, my personal goal would be to stay out and develop while everyone else destroys, which is one of the key reasons I've been in favor of a nonagression pact with GoW -- it helps avoid a war with them. Obviously, I too would perfer 'no war' to any other alternative, but I think it's most important that we ourselves stay out of any war that occurs -- let us put the money into research and development while they destroy themselves. It also wouldn't be the end of the world if GoW came in on one side or the other, I think -- it'd just mean that two nations'd wind up splitting the third, which would mean that neither would be that much more powerful.

-- adaMada

[Aidun]

Them fighting is ok, but one or two becoming SIGNIFICANTLY more powerful should be prevented. If alliances with both blocks can prevent this to occur, I favor signing these agreements.

Historical note: the outbreak of WW1 was partly due to the fact that Kaiser Wilhelm II of Germany refused to continue the alliance with Tzar Alexander III of Russia, while he kept the alliance with Emperror Franz-Josef of Austria-Hungary.
Russia suspected Germany and Austria of planning to attack Russia and we all know the result of this explosive situation.

Aidun

Edit: I can read in the chat that Arnelos knows the history of WW1 as well as I do. You were just replying what I was writing up here, Arnelos.

[Thud]

Arnelos, this plan makes me feel all warm and tingly inside. It uses our key advantage, we're the only team on the continent not sworn to kill another, perfectly. I like all 4 points, with some reservations about the 4th. I still have some bit of the peacenic left in me.

[History Guy]

This is basically what I have been suggesting myself...but no-one listens to squid barons these days...

I don't see the Arabs teaming up with the Chinamen anytime soon, indeed, if their Borcian Dynasty, or Caliphate, as they say, stays in power, I do not see them allying at all. Indeed, my impression is that the Arab peoples distrust, fear, and are repulsed by the Chinese, thinking them ignorant savages, yet a terrible threat to them at the same time.

On the other hand, an alliance of Turkey and China is highly plausible, in my opinion. They are of the same mindset. Cruel, stupid warmongers, though the Chinese are most certainly the real threat. I would hope this does not happen, but if it does, I think Lux Invicta would be sorely wasted, for China would use it, and discard it, destroying it utterly.

I suggest we attempt to mediate the Neu Demogyptican-Lux Invictan war, and bring it to a bloodless finish, as well as we can possibly achieve. The two should be strong enough, then, to repel the Chinese attacks that you know is going to come. If they are broken up by warfare, I don't see any chance of their victory. Wouldn't it be a perfect thing for the Chinese to ride in with a large force and find the Lux Invictans and the Neu Demogypticans fighting themselves to pieces?

Hernan de History Guy Calamari the Younger
Ambassador to Neu Theban

[Aidun]

You are exactly pointing the big problem in this international affair. I don't want GoW find Lux and ND fighting: Two dogs fighting for a bone, a third passes by and gets it for himself alone.

Aidun

[History Guy]

Exactly, sir. However, in this case, the third dog might maul the others to death, and that would not bode well for us.

[Aidun]

That's the bone I am speaking of: land, cities.

Aidun

[Togas]

The only problem with this idea is that if there is a war, we're pulled in via treaty on one of the sides. We lose our chance to become neutral and we must violate our non-agg pact with one of the two sides.

Of course, if ND attacks Lux NOW, while we are still in the alliance, we will have to decide how to handle our NA treaty with ND.

--Togas

[adaMada]

Originally posted by History Guy
I suggest we attempt to mediate the Neu Demogyptican-Lux Invictan war, and bring it to a bloodless finish, as well as we can possibly achieve.

I'd like to point out that I have no problem with trying to mediate. As the only 'neutral' team around, it'd be great if we could somehow step in and use our diplomatic infulence to find some peaceful resolution -- war's bad for everyone, and perhaps ND/Lux will feel indebted over the issue. I just dislike the idea of working this by signing alliances -- it seems like we'd be tying our hands and forcing ourselves into war. Any war right now would be bad for us, but a war that involves us would be the worst -- we don't get the advantage of putting money into peaceful development, we hurt our diplomatic situation, and we have to devote resources to military spending that would otherwise not be necessary -- if nothing else, we'll have to replace any destroyed troops, so...

-- adaMada

[astrologix]

Just an idea :

IMO, it's not impossible that, if ND attacks Lux, then GoW will attack ND. Why ? Because if ND whipes out Lux they will become a great superpower in the middle of our continent and certainely GoW could not accept it, because they will become the next ND target.

Consequently, we should warn ND about this possibility. It would help our peace views and maintain the tension between our neighbours for still a long time (for our benefit !).

[Nuclear Winter]

We should be ready to do some heavy intervention on any given side, should war start. Personally, I think the ND should be our first target, because they are way too strong.
BUT, if we intend to prevent war, we could follow arnelos´s idea and tell both sides that if war breaks out, we will enter to protect the ofended side, though we should sign NO agreements, this should give us the possibility to break ´em if the interests of Spania are treatened by neutrality/aid to the defending side.
Also, I must remind all of the importance of ´´keeping a big stick´´(copiright Arnelos/Roosevelt), this can be the diference between sucess and anexation, mainly if things go toward a WW situation.