Score analysis

[Hot Mustard]

Originally posted by DAVOUT
I have collected all scores since 3500BC, but I cant find 3450BC and 3000BC. Could somebody help ?

3450BC:
GS - 27
ND - 33
GoW - 33
RP - 33
Vox - 33
Lux - 27
Lego - 34

3000BC:
GS - 45
ND - 55
GoW - 50
RP - 49
Vox - 49
Lux - 46
Lego - 49

[jdjdjd]

Excellent work DAVOUT, I can hardly wait to see what you get by next turn and after you have all the old data collected.

[E_T]

See my post in the Report Thread for a possible reason that Lux's score has changed so much

E_T

[Ninot]

Originally posted by oliverfa
One question, just for pure curiosity. Will this analysis be useful when the game advances?

can't this only be useful while we dont have a full map or established embassies?

i mean, once there is a big world map available, and a good trade network, we wont NEED to analyze score to understand whos winning, we'll just see who has the most color on the map and understand, right?

[Ninot]

Re: Score analysis

Originally posted by DAVOUT
It is pretty sure that the others are doing the same kind of analysis, but in case one or two would not, it is not useful to publicize it.

well... looky here...

Originally posted by Dissident
Is anyone keeping track of the scores? Maybe we can average the scores out for each age and get winners for the age.

But I doubt anyone is motivated enough to copy all the scores for each turn. It certainly isn't me

i think its a safe bet enough people have thought of this kind of thing.

just... are we the only guys with enough... time... to do this?

[DAVOUT]

Oliverfa, Ninot,

The score analysis can be of some help in very complex situation such as a game against humans where it is quite difficult to make a correct assesment of the situation. And of course, when the necessary information will be directly available, its usefulness will close nothing. Until the end of the rexing period, it could help us choosing where to look at.

[DAVOUT]

Re: Re: Score analysis

Originally posted by Ninot


just... are we the only guys with enough... time... to do this?

I have not heared that any other civ has incorporated a Watcher in its organization chart !

[OliverFA]

Señor Davout, maybe I haven't expressed myself properly. I think that the score analysis can be a very powerful tool. I was just wandering is it's utility will decline with the pass off the time.

[DAVOUT]

The score shown every turn in the game reflects the situation at the end of the previous turn.

I assume that the rounding is standard, that is :
From 0.01 to 0.49 rounded to 0
From 0.50 to 0.99 rounded to 1

In order to reduce the uncertainty resulting from the rounding, and considering that the cumulative number of points and the number of basic points produced in a turn are integers, I choose, in the range of possible decimal values of the score, a value corresponding to integers for both the cumulative number of points and the numbers of basic points produced every turn. If I have a choice between several values, I choose the value which is the most in line with the previous results.

Based on the score shown on turn 27 (2710BC) reflecting the situation at the end of turn 26 (2750BC), the number of basic points produced in turn 26 is as follows :

1 34 Lego
2 33 GS and Spain
4 30 ND
5 25 GoW
6 23 Vox
7 21 Lux


The method described above can hardly results in errors exceeding 1 point.

But ?
For the last five turns, the civs produced the following numbers of basic points :

Lego : 32/34/34/34/34
GS : 23/32/32/33/33
Spain : 32/32/33/33/33
All this seems normal

ND : 33/29/33/33/30
GoW : 22/23/33/33/25
Vox : 23/33/23/33/23
Lux : 24/24/17/24/21
They have all strange variations.

[ruby_maser]

Originally posted by DAVOUT
ND : 33/29/33/33/30

Well, we know from the demographics screen that in 2850 BC Neu Theben was size 3. In 2800 BC, it was size 1. What years do these numbers correspond to, Señor DAVOUT?

[edit]: what I mean is, is the "33" the most recent turn or is the "30"?

[ruby_maser]

Perhaps, and this is just a maybe, we should consider that the score is rounded for clarity on screen but the program is actually still carrying the decimals.

I have noticed sometimes that the game will put a "~" in front of a score to imply it is approximately that. I know it may make it harder to calculate, but maybe, we need to consider that the game is not simply rounding the score off every turn but just doing so on screen for clarity.

[OliverFA]

Señor Davout:
One sugestion. What about keeping the full punctuation instead of dividing by 3 to keep calculations more acurated? let's take that a content citizen and a tile give 3 points instead of 2, and a happy citizen 6 instead of 1. Unless you are already doing that and just dividing at the end to post the result.

Señor Ruby_Maser:
Maybe I'm wrong but i was thinking this ~ means tha the player still hasn't send their orders to be played.

Anyway, the results of that analysis look really interesting

[DAVOUT]

Originally posted by ruby_maser


Well, we know from the demographics screen that in 2850 BC Neu Theben was size 3. In 2800 BC, it was size 1. What years do these numbers correspond to, Señor DAVOUT?

[edit]: what I mean is, is the "33" the most recent turn or is the "30"?

30 is the most recent turn (2750).

[DAVOUT]

Originally posted by ruby_maser
Perhaps, and this is just a maybe, we should consider that the score is rounded for clarity on screen but the program is actually still carrying the decimals.

I have noticed sometimes that the game will put a "~" in front of a score to imply it is approximately that. I know it may make it harder to calculate, but maybe, we need to consider that the game is not simply rounding the score off every turn but just doing so on screen for clarity.

Definitely, I am quite sure that the programme is carrying the decimals, it why the error cannot be bigger; but we only know what is on the screen for all the civ, except us.

[ruby_maser]

Originally posted by oliverfa
Señor Ruby_Maser:
Maybe I'm wrong but i was thinking this ~ means tha the player still hasn't send their orders to be played.

I don't see how this could be so, though, because wouldn't we see it every turn then? IIRC, it only happens every once in awhile and randomly.