About GoW, Lux and ND

[OliverFA]

After reading the opinions of the other Spanish nobles and seeing at the mini-map, I have reasons to believe that Lux and ND have an alliance against GoW. Or at least they had until ND has discovered that we are south of them.

GoW are puting lots of efforts to convince us that ND are a danger, saying that they have 12 or 13 techs and so, and ND look like they want peace with us, because they are already planning to have a war with GoW. I believe that if we don't do anything about that they are going to destroy GoW. What I don't know is if that benefits us or not. If we find that there is someone on our west, then maybe we should let ND/Lux do. But if we find that all this land is ours, what will we do? Try to Rex while they fight, or help GoW to prevent the others becoming too powerful?

[DAVOUT]

It depends a lot of Vox. If Lux is beyond the reach of Vox (because of a sea), GW is litterally cornered by ND and Lux, and an alliance of ND and Lux would be devastating. The assault could be as early as 2200/2000BC.
And for us the early destruction of GW would just anticipate ours.
Is it wise to ally with GW? Again it depends of Vox. If Vox is not in our neighbouring, we could, knowing that we will have 2 civ to fight if GW was destroyed.
What kind of force can we build in the next 1000 years ?

I suspect nevertheless that GW anticipates problems but that the real threats are for later.

[ruby_maser]

I believe that Neu Dem's discovery of a settler from a goodie hut and the number of their contacts and the tech lead they probably do have (not 12 techs though, I'm sure), make them the biggest threat to the rest of us.

GoW is cornered; they are in a position to make concessions for a chance to grow. However, Neu Dem is surrounded if an alliance or an embargo can be set up against them.

We desperately need contact with GoW and Vox (or Lux... whichever is east of GoW) and, specificly the latter. I think we should make trades with Neu Dem along those lines. We need to know for sure whether a Neu Dem/Vox or Lux alliance is inevitable (if we were right next to GoW, what would we decide?). If it is, GoW won't hold out or will be vassalized by the conflict. We may be able to discreetly play both sides to our advantage. This is were diplomacy will make or break us, I think.

[Arnelos]

The key factors will be linking up with Legoland (which is to ND's west) and Vox Controli (which I suspect to be somewhere near Lux Invicta). Either could be a useful counter-weight to ND or Lux taking out GoW.

That said, we still really need to know where Gathering Storm is... they're the wildcard here.

[Crousto]

Have we already asked to Legoland if they have met another civ? I'd say Gathering Storm is south of them...

[jdjdjd]

ah, forget it....I am behind the times

[Arnelos]

Originally posted by Crousto
Have we already asked to Legoland if they have met another civ? I'd say Gathering Storm is south of them...

I also believe that GS is probably to Legoland's south (it's the most logical hole in the map). However, I don't believe that Legoland and GS have met.

[Thrumble]

It would be a lot more obvious what we should do if we could make contact with GoW and Lux (whoever is to the East of Neu Dem).

Right now, Gow Is sounding desperate.

[E_T]

The thing is that ND & Lux would have to slow down their own Rex, if they are to build up their Force's to take out GoW. But they can do it, if they team up against GoW. We are fortunate in that we have a Jungle between us and them, but that will only slow them down for a bit.

I think that GoW is barking at Shadows, unless the contact that they have made with ND has not been a good contact. Still, it's not something that should really concern us, too much. GoW's claim is that they will be able to be a viable military power. If ND just goes it alone against GoW, then we need to stay out of it. If Lux Teams up with ND, then we should be very concerned. THis is something that will take a few turns to completely work out.

E_T

[History Guy]

I have a new letter from Neu Demogyptica, by the way, which is now available in the Diplomatic Hut. They want Alphabet and 15 tonnes of gold for, you guessed it, Masonry and Pottery. What say you? I'd like a response to be delivered by tomorrow.

Hernan de History Guy Calamari the Younger
Diplomat

[Thrumble]

It's amazing how much discussion, strategy, and plotting there is going on considering how little of the game we've actually played.

[Arnelos]

Originally posted by History Guy
I have a new letter from Neu Demogyptica, by the way, which is now available in the Diplomatic Hut. They want Alphabet and 15 tonnes of gold for, you guessed it, Masonry and Pottery. What say you? I'd like a response to be delivered by tomorrow.

Hernan de History Guy Calamari the Younger
Diplomat

Personally, I'd be willing to make the deal I proposed because I believe that the value of alphabet is more perishable than some here have argued. I don't think the extra 15 gold makes it worth it, but alphabet could be even more perishable than I figure it to be (all it will take is for Legoland to gain contact with them, someone to discover it, or someone to land on a goody hut...).

That said, Togas is the one who really needs to make this decision. He said he could be reached by e-mail while away, so I'll try that.

[Togas]

The Lux, ND, and GoW triangle:

Until we know more, it is likely that this triangle of powers will result in an untimely end for one nation. They are all competators for the same land and they are all agressive enough civs that are yearning for the first opportunity at war.

The smartest two will abuse one of them. There may also be some betrayal as well, and this war could be very messy.

A opinion on each nation:

Glory of War
They will fight someone. They will either pick the foe they fear the most, or the weakest foe. They clearly fear N.D. the most, but they may find Lux an easier opponent. Knowing their ties to us and also knowing how lousey Lux is at diplomacy, they may well pick N.D. as a target to "gang up on" with our assistance. However, they must find a way to keep Lux out of it, because if Lux gets involved, they will fight both Lux and N.D. and Lux will benefit the most. The first early war may be difficult for GoW.

Should GoW be eliminated by an N.D. and Lux alliance, N.D. will have removed their primary danger, will be able to grow unchecked to the north, and will then be able to consider expanding into Cow Valley at our expense. Lux may also take advantage of such a war to pillage a few cities from us.

For these reasons, I beleve that it is in our short term interest to keep GoW around as a "boogyman" in the north ... a nation that no one wants to turn their back on.

Neu Dem.
The middleman, nation with the most cities, most tech, but worst location. If they play their diplomacy correctly they could survive the Stone Ages and prosper. If they allow their ego and power to get the best of them they could be out of the mix very early.

It is in their best interest to see GoW and Lux weak. It may also be in their interest to remove GoW but they would have to ensure that we did not surprise attack them from the jungle. They will be very gracious to us and try to handle northern continental affairs first before dealing with us. Their greatest threats are right next door.

I believe that we can get greater favors and deals from them now than later on when they know that they have a power advantage over us.

Note: We need to feel them out to see if they have any interest in Cow Valley, and then try to convince them that we have very poor land (mostly jungle) and that it is our only legitimate expansion site and that we would have to fight them for it. We need to stress to them just how important it is to us and that we would be willing to aid them in times of war if they will promise not to try to settle south of the jungle. I am willing to send Spain to war against N.D. if it comes to a fight over Cow Valley. In such a war we would ask the GoW team to join us.

Lux Invicta
With any luck they have another neighbor to the East and we will be the furthest thing from their minds. They were one of the first contacted and as such, they have become overly paranoid and may well have enacted an early rush strat. to combat the likely dangers they will face.

Frankly, these guys are so inept I doubt they'll survive into the Middle Ages, and even if they do they'll likely be a minor power. If there is a chance to work with them in the future, we should explore it a bit, we should also consider playing to their egos in our negotiations and diplomacy. That's the only thing that might get their attention.

Should a war break out they could side with GoW or ND. Perhaps whomever gives them the best offer, but I believe that we should do what we can to ensure that they do not prosper as a result of war. The last thing we need is an undiplomatic nation to become powerful. We'll never get them to "play ball" if that occurs.

--Togas

[Thrumble]

I think ND's only successful route to winning is to maintain a large enough lead to scare other civs away from it but not enough to warrrant the others to gang up on them. They are the odd man out in this game being from a different civ site, not having their own team forum, and not being as active in the forums as the other civs.

[History Guy]

I agree on all points. With all we must tread carefully, but unless they make a grab for the Valley of Cows, we should try and make Neu Demogyptica an ally, simply for the reward of trade with them, and for their power. I would hate to cross them at this stage in the game, though I would prefer it rather than to cross the Warmongers, ignorant savages as they are.

Hernan de History Guy Calamari the Younger
Diplomat