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Don't forget the best sword: the word!

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  • Don't forget the best sword: the word!

    I think in the latest turns we were concentrating too much on the military and not enough on the weapon that can win even the most difficult war: diplomacy!

    It is true that this war was inevitable, and even talking with GS or GoW wouldn't have changed anything, but now that it has started, it is time to stop it

    Basically, we would be able to defeat any of our opponents, but not 2 or 3 at once. So we have to break this alliance. This must be our primary goal.

    In a way we already have ND on our side: they didn't attack us, they don't want us completely destroyed and they don't want an even more powerful GoW. There are only 2 problems:
    1. they are weak, therefor they are not really able to help us militarily
    2. they would help us only when the situation becomes desperate for us, which is too late.
    At this point I don't think that ND wants to help GoW and GS even more, but they don't really have a chance to do otherwise. They fear a miltary intervention against them.
    However, we should try to seek ways of cooperation that can't be detected by GS and GoW, yet it'd help ND and us. More about this in the ND diplo thread.

    So we have to focus on someone else. We must break the GS - GoW alliance. For this, we need to pick one of our enemies, the most vulnerable one and convince it that there are better ways than war to achieve victory.

    IMO it is quite obvious that this team is GS. Why is that? Let's analyze a bit their situation.
    No military victory is possible in this game, and a diplo win has even less chances. Their only chance to win is the space race. In order to achieve this, they need 3 things. We can call these the GS objectives:
    O1. technology power: they already have this one
    O2. relatively weak opponents, which means from their PoV: no other team capable of building the spaceship before them and no other team being capable to threaten them militarily, should they be close to the spaceship win.
    O3. resources: their continent is small, and they may very well lack one of the two resources needed for the spaceship: aluminium and uranium.

    What is GS seeking with this war? Well, they are trying to achieve point 2. and maybe point. 3 , though the latest may be quite difficult to achieve. I think they are hoping to cripple us and don't really believe in a total military occupation of Legos.

    There is one crucial thing: the cost of the war. GS is obviously prepared to pay a price, but how big? That's the question.
    We have to convince GS that:
    1. the price will be too high compared with the results if they choose to continue the war, and
    2. they can obtain more or the same, with a lesser price


    All right. How do we do that? Well, here comes the diplomacy Up until here, it was only an analysis. We will have to use true facts and half-true arguments, in order to make them think what we want them to think.

    1. Argument: we don't have enough army to defend both coasts, therefor we will concentrate on only one, turtling on the other one, hoping to rezist until we defeat the first invador and proceed to attack the second one. Now, willingly or not, GS is the team we will attack with all we have as soon as they land (and even before ) This is for many reasons: they have the bigger army, they don't have bombers, and so on. This will have the following possible outcome: the GS army will be destroyed, while GoW has a good shot to become even more powerful, becoming a threat to GS and ND.
    2. Argument: we will be weakened anyway, we are technologically behind, so O2 will be achieved. If they continue the war, O2 will be again in danger, because GoW will become too powerful
    Argument: we can offer the resources needed to build the spaceship. This latest argument is maybe the strongest and most dangereous one, as it can grant victory to GS. Should our attack on the GS armada go well, we may drop this.

    That's pretty much it. I'm sure we can refine this, so as soon as GS will begin having heavy losses and we will begin losing the war on the east coast (seems very possible atm), I think GS will be ready to talk.
    Last edited by Tiberius; November 13, 2004, 18:18.
    "The only way to avoid being miserable is not to have enough leisure to wonder whether you are happy or not. "
    --George Bernard Shaw
    A fast word about oral contraception. I asked a girl to go to bed with me and she said "no".
    --Woody Allen

  • #2


    This was posted only to avoid Vondrack saying that he is the only one writing long posts j/k

    Waiting for comments and ideas. We really need any ideas on how to refine our arguments and convince GS ! Com'on, it's important and no number crunching is involved
    "The only way to avoid being miserable is not to have enough leisure to wonder whether you are happy or not. "
    --George Bernard Shaw
    A fast word about oral contraception. I asked a girl to go to bed with me and she said "no".
    --Woody Allen

    Comment


    • #3
      Let me just briefly add that I actually feel ashamed for how much I have been neglecting diplomacy lately. If it was not for Tibi coming up with this idea, I would still be scratching my head, shuffling infantries back and forth... completely ignorant of non-military options.

      As we've been chatting with Tibi about the idea some, there is little I can add ATM, but generally, I believe this idea is very much worth further refining and discussion.

      If the war goes bad, it can save us from a total defeat.
      If the war goes so-so, it can tip the balance in our favour.
      If the war goes well, this could make it go even better.

      We have to think hard about what valuables we could offer to GS without actually compromising our own chances to win a spacerace too much.

      Comment


      • #4
        Looks good. Only problem I see with this is that GS may have honor issues with backing out. We don't know what sort of deal they've signed.

        I'm also not sure what we can give them out of this without handing them a space race victory. Frankly, I'd rather go down fighting than end up subserviant to the victory of a team that attacked us.

        Comment


        • #5
          I still think ND should attack GOW
          Si tacuisses, philosophus mansisses

          Comment


          • #6
            It's still just wishful thinking.

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by redstar1
              I still think ND should attack GOW
              That's the next step after we convince GS to slow down and we can concentrate on GoW
              "The only way to avoid being miserable is not to have enough leisure to wonder whether you are happy or not. "
              --George Bernard Shaw
              A fast word about oral contraception. I asked a girl to go to bed with me and she said "no".
              --Woody Allen

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by Kloreep
                Looks good. Only problem I see with this is that GS may have honor issues with backing out. We don't know what sort of deal they've signed.
                True, this might be a problem. However, if we make GS to negociate, I'm sure we will find a formula which would save GS's honour and us in the same time

                I'm also not sure what we can give them out of this without handing them a space race victory. Frankly, I'd rather go down fighting than end up subserviant to the victory of a team that attacked us.
                Yeah, like I said it depends on what they want to achieve with this war. This is something we want to (and we have to) find out during the negotiations If they started the war only to weaken us, then maybe we can convince them based purely on geo-political arguments. If they are hoping in a complete occupation of Legos to get our resources, well...they will see in one or two turns that this is not possible, and also we will make it very clear in our talks that we won't let them do this. Destroying half of their settlers is already a blow to this idea.
                So, let's keep the resources thing as a last resort argument, or try to brainstorm some way in which we could give them what they need without losing the game. We can ask for tech cooperation in exchange, for example, or something like this.

                What we need right now is to survive this war, while still being able to have a shot to victory. At this point I think that GS, GoW and Lego have aprox. the same chances to win the game, with ND slightly behind. Should they beat us, GS, GoW and ND will jump to each other's throat, to avoid the other one winning. We have to make this happen earlier We have to make them rethink their strategies.

                The biggest problem I can imagine is if GS and GoW have some sort of agreement to divide Lego and ND between them, as in: GS get's Legos and GoW gets ND. That would be deadly. Doesn't seem very possible, though, and regardless we will have to try our chances.
                "The only way to avoid being miserable is not to have enough leisure to wonder whether you are happy or not. "
                --George Bernard Shaw
                A fast word about oral contraception. I asked a girl to go to bed with me and she said "no".
                --Woody Allen

                Comment


                • #9
                  if want to tip the balance in our favour, could we consider giving ND Motorized Transport? The way I see the best way to assist them is to allow them to arm as fast as possible, the only thing holding them back is lack of tanks. If we eventually maage to get to the point where we ourselves can lauch an invaison we could end up with the perfect launch point but we need to have closer relations with ND bassuming the they want us as friends.

                  Not sure if this still the case but is there any other way we provide a small amount of econoimc assistance to them without sacrificing our defence capablities eg gold to get them upgrading?

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    ND already have Motorized Transportation.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      well thats okay then

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        I believe the time is coming that we should approach GS. My little chit-chat with DeepO has revealed quite a bit of information we were unaware of, I'd say. A lot of it actually supports Tibi's diplo plan, methinks.

                        Perhaps we might try to cooperate a bit?

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Well, what DeepO said "This very well might be our final moment, and we decided to make it a glorious one. Now if only you'd like to cooperate a little... " must be seen in the bigger picture, I believe.

                          I could be wrong, but I think what he really meant was: "This very well might be our final moment, ... Now if only you'd like to cooperate a little to make it a glorious one"

                          Do you see the difference? I think they won't stop until we are crippled/destroyed, their army is destroyed OR they won't see a chance to win.

                          But we can try to discuss. It never hurts. I am deeply pessimistic about the outcome, however
                          "The only way to avoid being miserable is not to have enough leisure to wonder whether you are happy or not. "
                          --George Bernard Shaw
                          A fast word about oral contraception. I asked a girl to go to bed with me and she said "no".
                          --Woody Allen

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            I believe they are like a desperate samurai now, not really hoping to win but rather hoping to die in glory. Which is very bad for us.

                            Obviously they still have some hope; probably some of our cities, and our resources. But I'm afraid at this point they are prepared to fight till the bitter end.

                            I'm afraid we should really give them a glitter of hope for winning the game to make them truely negotiate.
                            If they are trying to win the spacerace, the only thing they might be interested in are the resources... and how can we give them the resources without losing the game???
                            "The only way to avoid being miserable is not to have enough leisure to wonder whether you are happy or not. "
                            --George Bernard Shaw
                            A fast word about oral contraception. I asked a girl to go to bed with me and she said "no".
                            --Woody Allen

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Well... if they really are the fourth, truly minor power (try going back and loook at the production figures we determined!), then by giving them the resources need not necessarily equal to losing the game - it would only equal to giving them a chance.

                              Much depends on the outcome of their attack on Abilene. I take it for granted GS attacked it - but from DeepO's recent posts, I am hoping they did not take it... so it will be about losses. We might have suffered losses too high to allow holding our ground there. GS might have suffered losses too high to allow further military operations there... or it can be a stalemate.

                              We shall see soon, I believe.

                              DeepO's note on our "unpredictability" sounded also much better than his line about how we would not like their battle report...

                              But I readily admit I feel butterflies in my stomach and can't wait to see GS' battle report. And at the same time, am kind of afraid seeing it...

                              Comment

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