The War: 1255AD

[vondrack]

I have been playing around with the intel map, trying to guess what GS would do with their Southern fleet... well, it's... it's quite ugly, to say the least.

Have a look at the picture:



Obviously, the red stuff relates to GS, the green stuff relates to us. The green ranges are radii, which GS ships can carry seaborne attacks at our cities from. As you can see, there is an area W of Abilene which allows attacks at three of our southern cities - at Q.M., Abilene, and Tipperary. The three tiles closest to Q.M. even allow blitz-through seaborne attacks through all 3 of them... however, I don't believe GS would move next to the shore - we would be able to bombard them with our land based artillery without compromising its safety (without exposing it to marine-based attacks). For the same reason, they are unlikely to move within the arty bombardment range around Abilene.

As the abovementioned unlikely-to-do's rule out 6 out of the 8 tiles, I believe GS will move to either Abilene W-W-NW or Abilene W-NW-NW, taking a position allowing them to blitz-attack through Abilene and attack Q.M. or Tipperary.

I do not like this much - forces us to stretch defenses to at least seven cities, since the Northern GS fleet will likely be able to threaten two more cities (Forkmouth and Sandonorico) and GoW will likely manage to threaten at least two (if not four!) more cities on our Eastern Coast...

[vondrack]

Taking my idea a bit further, I have identified another "danger zoner" allowing GS to threaten 3 other cities of ours at once (well, 2 other and one same). This time, GS could take a position allowing them to blitz-attack through Forkmouth, Sandonorico, or Q.M. - all that without exposing themselves to our land-based arty barrage! The area may very well be within the reach of the Northern GS fleet, if it is hidden somewhere in that narrow strip to the NE of the lonely GS carrier...

The updated picture:



Also... with GS capable of threatening Q.M. with their Northern Fleet, they may actually stay out of the Danger Zone South (=outside of the range of our land-based arty), being happy with threatening just Abilene and Tipperary with their Southern Fleet.

So, if GS play this right, we will have to defend 5 cities of ours on the Western Coast. That's rather depressing. Add at least two more cities on the Eastern coast threatened by GoW - and we are at 7 cities needing solid-proof defenses. With 89 infantries, about 30 tanks, and 30 cavalries next turn, we are sort of running short on defenders...

We need to reduce the number of cities threatened somehow...

[Tiberius]

Do you understand what GS is doing? I don't

Either there are units in both armadas, or maybe one of them is empty and has the purpose of splitting our defenders.

Either way, we have to try and destroy them. Even if the armada is empty, it's woth it to destroy those destroyers and transports. So let hunt down everything we can.

For this purpose we need to hunt down the northern GS fleet, the only one within range. So, we need to locate it first, and then we will have to move the battleships in a position where the fleet can be located and attacked within the same turn, should they move closed to our borders. In order to achieve this the 2 proposed moves looks fine. Then we can move our BBs one more tile to S or something else, depending on the outcome of the scout movements.

If we manage to keep away at least one stack, then it's already much better.

Edit: this is quite an old post, just didn't have the time to post it. WQill have to revise it maybe after I read the previous Radek posts

[Tiberius]

Well, first of all, maybe we should switch some cities to infantry production, because if we lose a coastal city, we are toast, with or without tanks. We need the infantries first, the tanks only after. Maybe we should even rush some, wherever it's necessary, possible and not too expensive.

[lmtoops]

I agree with what Tibi and Vondrack have stated. We must find that Northern fleet. We have those beautiful BBs that are just sitting. It would be great if we could destroy the GS N. Fleet, but first it must be found.

I'm at work, so I cannot verify these few ideas that are flying into my head. So this may be pure foolishness, or there may be some value in my comments/ideas.

With what we know now, those 2 bomber in Tipperary are of no use. We need to move they to a northern city where they may(?) bomb the N. fleet.

Ahhh, I have to work...damn. Oh well, I really can't think of anyother ideas at this time.

[vondrack]

Alright, this game is really tough on me... thank God I worked hard yesterday, getting most business stuff out of my way - would not be able to focus on that today.

I believe I've spotted light at the end of the tunnel...


First, let's do a summary of what we know:

Southern GS Fleet (SGSF)

Location: 5xW-NW of Abilene

Composition:
1 3/4 DD
5 4/4 DDs
1 4/4 carrier
10 4/4 transports
1 3/3 transport

Though - there may be more ships hidden in the FoW to the SW of the fleet. We should find out when we attack the 2/4 GS submarine (which I believe we really should).

Likely Destination: "Danger Zone South" - the area West of Abilene, allowing SGSF to attack three cities on the Southwestern Coast. All tiles allowing this triple-threat are within the range of our land-based arty, though - we'd just have to make sure the arty used to bombard SGSF would not be exposed to a seaborne attack. Under no circumstances!

Staying out of our land-based arty range would mean waiving at least one city as a potential target (either Tipperary or Q.M.).

Northern GS Fleet (NGSF)

Location: unknown yet, though quite likely in the narrow strip of FoW NE of the lonely GS carrier

Likely Destination: "Danger Zone North" - the area in the Bay of Sandonorico, allowing NGSF to attack three our cities on the Western Coast. All tiles allowing this triple-threat are out of range of our land-based arty.

If I am wrong and NGSF actually heads to somewhere more to the North, it would be better for us - we could block the access to Invoice by stuffing transports from K'ville and Port Hammer there and block the access to S'haven by stuffing our BBs there. I'd very much prefer this scenario, but I'm afraid I'm probably right and we will spot NGSF after moving U-H2 one tile NE...

Our land-based defenses

For this very turn, we seem to need almost no defenses on land - SGSF would be able to land its cargo at only two tiles - Abilene NW and Abilene N-NW. Should they wish so... I would not object. No need to block.

NGSF could theoretically (if hiding in the SEmost tip of that narrow FoW strip) land its cargo at Q.M. N-N, Q.M. N-NW, or Q.M. NW-NW. Out of these, Q.M. N-N seems to be worth blocking to me - landing there would give GS a nice hill defense bonus and allow them to threaten Sandonorico and Q.M. with all the landed tanks. Suggest: defend the hill N-N of Q.M. with up to 40 infantries (unless needed elsewhere).

Our naval defenses

Here comes the idea that crossed my mind... what we desperately need is to take at least one of our Western Coast cities out of the equation. Out of all we have there, one of them is actually accessible through a single water tile only - Quanto Mechanico.

If we were able to stack ships enough to this tile, we would be able to leave Q.M. completely undefended.

Now, how many is "enough". Obviously, this will depend on whether and where we locate NGSF. So, let's take it from the other end... how many ships we could stack there if focusing on that?

Task Force North under the command of Rear-Admiral Kerekes would forget killing off that 1/4 GS DD and move S-S-SE-SE-SE-SE (see the picture at the end of this post). Wherever NGSF is, this move would keep Task Force North out of their range.

In 1260AD, Task Force North would be able to move to Q.M. West, blocking the access to the city. Wherever NGSF is, they would not be able to prevent that. Plus, Task Force North would most probably be able to enjoy a free shot at NGSF, since they will have one spare movement point.

So, that's 7 BBs guarding the access to Q.M. Six if we have to use one BB to sink that 1/4 DD and check the tiles SW of there.

H.B.S. Patrocles (a 4/4 DD to be rushed in Sandonorico - cost: 1 cav + 320g) able to attack NGSF or block Q.M. West in 1260AD.

H.B.S. Ulysses (a 4/4 DD to be rushed in Q.M. - cost: 1 cav + 80g) able to attack SGSF or block access to Abilene or Q.M. West.

H.B.S. Castor (a 3/3 DD just finished in Abilene) to stay in Abilene, ready to block Q.M. West or attack SGSF in 1260AD.

H.B.S. Romulus (a 3/3 DD to be rushed in Abilene - cost: 1 cav + 160g) would be ready to either block Q.M. West or attack SGSF in 1260AD.

H.B.S. Pollux (a 4/4 DD just finished in Tipperary) to move to Abilene, ready to either block Q.M. West or attack SGSF in 1260AD.

H.B.S. Remus (a 4/4 DD to be rushed in Tipperary - cost: 1 cav + 320g) would be ready to either block Q.M. West or attack SGSF in 1260AD.

H.B.S. Tisiphone (3/4 DD 3xW-3xSW of Tipperary) to attack N-N-N-N, hopefully sinking the 2/4 GS DD (odds to win: 93.8%), then SE-SE to be as far from SGSF as possible, while still being able to attack it in 1260AD (or at least help blocking access to Abilene)

H.B.S. Myrmidon (4/4 DD currently S-SE of Horsefish) to move W-W-W-W-NW-NW (to Tipperary NW-NW), able to either attack SGSF or block access to Q.M. or Abilene.

U-Sa1 (4/4 submarine currently W-W-NW-NW-NW of Q.M., with 2mp left) would move SE-SE, ready to either block access to Q.M. West or attack SGSF in 1260AD.

U-Q1 (3/5 submarine currently W-W-W-NW-NW-NW of Abilene, with 1mp left) to move NE now, trying to stay out of SGSF way - able to attack it in 1260AD, though.

U-H3 (4/4 submarine currently 2xNW-3xW of Tipperary, with 2mp left) to move E-E, out of SGSF range, ready to attack it or block access to Abilene in 1260AD.

LNT-FE (currently near the South Pole) to move N-N-N-N-NE-NE, able to block access to Abilene in 1260AD.

LNT-NC (currently near the South Pole between Tipperary and Horsefish) to move N-NW-NW-NW-NW-NW, able to block access to Abilene in 1260AD.

LNT-BD (currently roughly S of Tiberium) to move W-W-W-W-W-NW, able to block access to Abilene or Tipperary in 1260AD.

Now, this is a lot of ships to work with! That's 7 more ships capable of blocking Q.M. West! Unless we discover NGSF strenghtened by a number of DDs, this should be enough to prevent a seaborne attack at Q.M. in 1260AD.

And we would have one city out of the equation! The cost seems to be bearable... 880g and 4 cavalries.

[vondrack]

Now, this plan might have an added benefit - we may be able to pull a nasty trick on SGSF... let me explain.

GS can either go for "maximum threat" (moving SGSF into the Danger Zone South) or give up threatening Q.M. or Tipperary with their Southern Fleet, keeping outside of it.

If they give up and stay to W/SW of the Danger Zone South, we will need less ships to block Q.M. West from NGSF (we will only need what they'll have around +1... and even that will be an overkill), having actually more ships to attack SGSF with. If they give up threatening Tipperary, we'll have one more city out of the defense equation.

But if they go for maximum threat and enter Danger Zone South... we blast them to smitherins with land-based arty. All their ships would end up 1/x, I believe. We could then use all our combat ships around - and as you can see from the previous post, there can be quite a lot of them - to sink one 1/x GS ship after another. Even if we fail to sink them all, we would still be able to block access to both Abilene and the land tile with our arty (probably Abilene NW). Even an empty 4/4 transport (that's why I suggest moving all those transports from the South to around Tipperary) would be enough, since GS would be unable to get through with their 1/x transports (odds of that happening are 0.1%)... we might be able to get one or even two more cities out of the defense equation...

Now, we would certainly have a problem then if NGSF appeared somewhere in the North...

[vondrack]

FLASH: U-H2 moved NE:
Northern GS Fleet spotted

After putting together a plan to block Q.M. West, it has become apparent that further planning would not be possible without pinpointing the location of NGSF (since moving Task Force North to Forkmouth S-SW-SW would leave the area between Invoice and S'haven wide open to a possible surprise move by GS).

As nobody objected the proposal since I posted it, Kloreep went away for a couple of hours, and Tibi (present in chat) was ok with the move, I moved U-H2 one tile NE. Northern GS Fleet has been hiding right in the farthest tile of that narrow strip of FoW - see the updated map:

[vondrack]

Originally posted by vondrack
Now, we would certainly have a problem then if NGSF appeared somewhere in the North...

After moving U-H2 to NE and locating NGSF, it seems that this is a non-issue now... there is only a single tile allowing a double-threat at Forkmouth and S'haven (SE of that 1/4 GS DD). However, if GS chose to move there, we would simply move Task Force North to Forkmouth SW, preventing a seaborne attack at it, and stuffed S'haven with a ton of defenders. Result: two cities (Forkmouth & Sandonorico) out of the defense equation, one in (S'haven).

Just for sure, we should probably move the transports from K'ville to Invoice SW (along with the carrier). If GS tries something with those last 3 transports we have no info about, we would be able to block the access to Invoice or S'haven at least a bit...

And as agreed with Tibi in the chat - considering how many ships we will have available to block Q.M. West, it may be a good idea to sink the 1/4 GS DD anyway. We'd detach one BB from Task Force North, leaving it around S'haven, waiting for and later escorting H.B.S. Tiberius F. Kerekes, a brand new carrier sailing out from K'ville this turn (how appropriate that Task Force North would be joined by a carrier of this name...).

[Tiberius]

lol

btw, what does the F stand for?

[Tiberius]

Anyway, I was thinking that the BBs that will sink the GS destroyer, should after all go south after the operation. It could be useful there, and I don't see any danger coming to the Invoice area right now.

[vondrack]

Originally posted by Tiberius
lol

btw, what does the F stand for?

D'oh! How am I supposed to know? But honestly - I have absolutely no idea why I put that "F." there... it just slipped there somehow...

[vondrack]

Guys, I've posted complete plans for the rest of this turn in the Next turn plans thread. Be so kind and go through them very carefully, if you have time. Check and double-check and triple-check everything, please.

I'd like to play the turn in about 6 hours (around 7-8am GMT).