The War: 1255AD

[vondrack]

GS played their turn VERY fast - not sure if it's a good sign or not. But it means we have to start planning our next turn quickly. The coming turn will be crucial for setting our defenses up, as on the following turn, GS will deal their blow - we have to be ready for impact.

I carefully doctored a map showing all we've known this turn for sure - it's stitched together from partial screenshots taken while our ships were moving.

Additionally, the yellow area is where the 2/4 GS submarine must be. The red lines denote areas where there is a possibility of GS transports - the one close to their coast is the extent of our intel at the end of Turn 240 (except the red dot, which was a GS transport off the Stormian coast, the whole area was clear of any GS transports). The red line further to Legos is the farthest a GS transport or transports were able to move - combined with what we could see this turn (the map underneath), we at least know where there can be hidden transports we do not yet know about.



Click the map to open a full scale version (0.47 MB JPEG picture).

[vondrack]

Operation Wasp Hive

One rather autonomous operation in 1255AD will be a coordinated attack at the smaller GS force heading for the Abilene-Tipperary area (three transports escorted by a 3/4 destroyer). Whether they actually carry any troops or not is rather irrelevant - we must assume they do.

Fortunately, we have been able to muster some air and naval forces around there, and should be able to engage this fleet with fairly good odds.

The map:




Assumptions

It is very likely that the goal of this smaller GS fleet is to threaten Abilene and Tipperary at the same time - even if not actually attacking, then at least tying our forces in the area, denying them to us where we will need them more (around Sandonorico).

There are only 2 tiles allowing that they will be able to reach from where they were last turn (those are the brighter red ones). One of them is outside the range of sight of our coastal watches (the one with a hollow dot;Attack Point or AP from now on). It is also one of the tiles that are farthest from where H.B.S. Tisiphone sank the GS DD last turn. It is also outside of range of sight of U-H3, which GS may be able to locate with their submarine (currently somewhere in the yellow area).

Considering all this the brighter red tile with a hollow dot is where I would expect GS to show up - they may hope we would not spot them, leaving the cities there un(der)defended.

Theoretically, they could also take a position in one of the dimmer red tiles - those still allow threatening two cities at once, but only one of them could then be used as an "invade through" landing base, allowing GS to unload and attack further inland immediately. Fortunately, all of these tiles are within the striking range of our forces, too.


Our forces

There will be 2 bombers in Tipperary and 4 vessels available (see the green circles/dots on the map):

U-H3
H.B.S. Tisiphone
H.B.S. Castor (just finished in Abilene)
H.B.S. Pollux (just finished in Tipperary)


Opening phase

1) U-Q1 moves SW-S-S-S
This serves a twofold purpose. First, we pinpoint the location of the GS fleet, even if we do not spot it. The tiles at AP-NW and AP-W will be covered by U-Q1, the tiles at AP-SW and AP-S will be covered by U-H3, and the tile at AP-E will be visible from the coast. If we are unable to see the GS fleet, it will have to be at the AP.

Second, we check the Orange Perimeter in that area, making sure there is no other force capable of dealing a seaborne blow at our coastal cities in the Southwest.

2) U-H3 moves NE
To make the GS fleet visible. Obviously, if we spot the fleet without making this move (i.e. if GS chooses a tile different from the AP assumed), we just skip this.

3) two bombers from Tipperary bomb the GS fleet
Considering the defense of the ships in the GS fleet (8 for the DD, 4 for the transports) and the bombard rating for bombers (8), I am optimistic and hope that the worst we can achieve is bringing the DD down to 2/4. The best we can achieve is bringing the DD down to 1/4 and one of the transports to 1/4, too. Or anything inbetween.

Irrespective of how successful our bombing runs are, we send the navy in then. The order in which they are to attack will be discussed in the following post.

[vondrack]

Let's start with a table showing odds for various types of attacks. Since it's possible - and likely, I'd say - that the 2/4 GS sub we don't know precise whereabouts of will join this GS fleet, I am also listing odds for attacks at 2/4 and 1/4 submarines:



From this table, we determine the order which our ships shall attack in. We want the best odds possible, but overall. Sure our 4/4 DD would have the best odds all the time. But while it has only marginally better chances against a 1hp DD over a 3/x DD or 4/4 submarine, it has considerably better chances against 4/4 transports... you get the idea.

We should plan for a (partial) failure, too - even the 2/4 GS submarine joining the fleet would prevent us from sinking everything (which is the only result I'd consider a true success), no matter how lucky we might get. So, we try forming a "sea wall" from our victorious DDs (sure it's going to work only if all of them win), blocking as many routes towards Abilene as possible (Tipperary will get its own sea wall formed from ships not directly participating in this operation).

Thus:

- H.B.S. Tisiphone attacks from E
- new vet destroyer from Tipperary attacks from NE
- new regular destroyer from Abilene attacks from N

1) attacking the GS destroyer
a) if it is at 2-3hp, our 4/4 DD from Tipperary attacks from AP-NE (10+% better chances than anything else)
b) if it is at 1hp only, H.B.S. Tisiphone attacks (we save the 4/4 DD for high-health transports)

2) attacking the GS submarine
If the GS submarine joins the fleet (implies all transports will be 4/4), we send our own submarine to engage it. It's because it has slightly better odds than a 3hp DD if attacking a 1-2hp submarine, while slightly worse odds than a 3hp DD if attacking a 4hp transport. No big deal, but even marginally better is still better...

3) attacking the rest of the fleet
Here, it does not really matter... so, let's say we send our ships in the following order (skip whichever ones will have already attacked):
- H.B.S. Tisiphone (3/4)
- new DD from Abilene (3/3)
- U-H3 (4/4)
- new DD from Tipperary (4/4)


Clean-up Phase
Shall we fail to sink the whole GS fleet, which is quite likely (speaking maths, chances to sink everything are about 40% - and the GS sub would have to not join the fleet), we need to block as much as possible. It's safe to assume that only one or more transports survive our attack, so simply stuffing ships around Tipperary will make it impossible to attack (trying to sink a transport with another transport is almost sure to fail, GS would not go for it).

Thus, the following moves create a "sea wall" against Tipperary, making it safe from any seaborne attacks:

- H.B.S. Myrmidon to NW of Tipperary
- LNT-FE to W of Tipperary
- LNT-NC to SW of Tipperary

...
...

Damn. I have just realized I screwed last turn, not moving transports enough closer to Tipperary. We will not be able to form an "impenetrable" sea wall. There will be a hole S of Tipperary - GS would have to follow one single route though to find it... but damn anyway.

Oh well, we still move the ships as above.

[vondrack]

Operation Busy Bee (Western Theatre)

The general defense plan is pretty simple - stuff defenders enough into cities to make them impossible to take on the landing day, try holding key landing zones, and pray hard.

Now, how exactly we do this, depends on the situation after opening the 1255AD incoming save... but there are guidelines we will have to follow whatever shows up. We will undoubtedly have to start with gathering intelligence. We first need to determine where it will be possible for GS to strike.

The Orange Perimeter is our Holy Grail here - marines in transports located on this perimeter or closer to our shores are able to carry out a seaborne attack on one or more of our coastal cities. So, we need to check the whole Orange Perimeter for GS transports - I have named this part of the defense Operation Busy Bee, since our submarines will be like busy bees collecting valuable information.

Here is what we do:
(this time, I am using the map as visible at the end of the last turn, so that it is easier to see what we will need to cover)



The only seemingly uncovered tile W-W-W-W-SW-SW of Sharpeheaven will actually be covered by Task Force North which is three tiles away and forted last turn.

The red lines show the anticipated movement of both GS fleets we have been able to spot so far. White lines are proposed movements of our own submarines and their respective ranges of sight.

After moving our bees as shown, we should have complete information on all incoming GS forces capable of carrying out seaborne attacks on our cities in the Western Coast.

[ZargonX]

Just a thought: we should definately still be on lookout for a GS fleet coming from the SE. They may have launched one several turns earlier, to time it to arrive while we are completely focused on them in the west.

[vondrack]

Operation Busy Bee (Eastern Theatre)

Just like in the Western Theatre, we will need to determine where will GoW strike from in the East:



We will be unable to gather intel on the waters North of Castlea, so I have sent Voxes a request for intel as per the following picture:



Unless GoW sinks U-J1, we will again have the complete intel report on all threats to counter.

[vondrack]

Originally posted by ZargonX
Just a thought: we should definately still be on lookout for a GS fleet coming from the SE. They may have launched one several turns earlier, to time it to arrive while we are completely focused on them in the west.

True, but they would be unable to get past U-Z1 (S-S-S-SW of Zegu) unnoticed. No movements planned in that area, so we should be ok there.

[vondrack]

Operation Helm's Deeps
I find this name very much appropriate.

First, the facts. Numbers of units at the end of 1250AD:

GS
GoW
ND
Lego
Compared to us
strong
average
weak
-
Settlers
9
5
 0
2
Workers
24
27
63 (+1)
15 (+2)
Explorers
6 (+3)
3 (-2)
0
0
Horsemen/Knights
0
4(R)
11(A)
7(H) (-1)
Cavalries
0
16 (-2)
14
41 (-10)
Riflemen
20
0
0
0
Marines
40 (+4)
34 (+10)
9
0
Infantries
57
58
64
89 (+3)
Tanks
70
44
0
0
Artilleries
14
27
0
62 (+1)
Galleys
2
0
0
0
Transports
26 (+1)
19 (+1)
9
15
Carriers
2
3
0
0
Submarines
2 (-1)
0
0
10 (+2)
Frigates
0
0
1
0
Ironclads
0
0
0
7 (-9)
Destroyers
21 (-3)
19 (+1)
1
5 (-4)
Battleships
0
0
1
9
Fighters
2 (+1)
1 (+1)
0
0
Bombers
0
10
10
2

That's ~180 units GS can use to mount an attack. So far, we have been able to locate 16 transports, capable of carrying 16*8=128 units. Considering that GS would probably wish to leave at least a token force at home (20 riflemen won't do), we seem to be basically missing one more "distraction" or "reserve" GS fleet. Unless something really unexpected happens, we should be able to locate this fleet on this coming turn - if it is in a striking position, that is.

We cannot really say anything about GoW at this moment.

The key number on the GS rooster is 40. 40 marines. GoW will likely have the same number. That's what they can theoretically throw at any of our coastal cities within the range of a sufficiently large transport fleet. That is what we will have to adjust our coastal city defenses to.

We will have to prioritize. There is absolutely no chance to prevent the landing altogether. We have to focus on losing no cities... only if we are really lucky, we may try preventing landings on tiles that would give landed troops defense bonuses of any kind.

Helm's Deep

Sandonorico is our Helm's Deep. If GS takes it, we are dead. Dead dead. Dead like a totally dead man. With all their combat settlers and tanks, they would be able to crawl all the way to Karina and Legopolis on the turn they land. We lose Sandonorico, we die. Easy as that. The same, however, goes for any other city that will happen to be threatened by an enemy transport inside of the Orange Perimeter - be it of GS or GoW. I actually expect GoW to threaten at least 2, maybe 4 cities of ours on the Eastern and Northern Coasts.

So, our topmost priority is to prevent these cities from falling. The best way would be to stuff more defenders in then the invaders will have marines. But that may and probably will not be possible, so we will have to add some "cannon fodder" in - units likely to lose even to marines, but still holding "their" marine from getting ashore.

We should have:

89 vet infantries
~30 vet cavalries
~15 vet tanks
~7 vet horsemen

and 62 artillery to make our stand in 1260AD.

Let's run some defense numbers:




Cities on flat lands
(Sandonorico, Port Hammer, Tipperary)

These will be our most vulnerable keeps to hold. Odds to fend a marine successfully off:



Basically, you need 2 marines to have a 50%+ chance of killing a tank here. Not even 2 marines grant you 50% chances to kill an infantry here. So, 20 infantry or tanks and like 10 cannon fodder units seem just about right for this type of city - 10 cannon fodder units stop 10 marines. 30 to go. If you need 2 marines to be likely to bring down an infantry or tank, then 20 defenders should be more than enough. And even better - if we support the defenders with artillery, lots of marines will attack as regulars instead of veterans, further increasing our chances to kill them (which in turn helps promotions).


Cities on hills
(Castlea, Forkmouth, Crossing)

Castlea and Forkmouth are likely to be among the most endangered keeps of ours. Crossing shall be fine with 10 cannon fodder units if we have them. If not, we can still hope that ND will not attack, leaving just a single token infantry in there.



You need 4 marines to have 50%+ chances of taking down an infantry here. And 2 marines do not even get you there for tanks (barely missing the 50% mark). 10-15 infantries or tanks with a couple of cannon fodder units, everything supported by a handsome of arty pieces shall make these cities safe.


Metropolis on flat lands
(Abilene, Dye Fields, Logville, Quanto Mechanico, Tiberium, Sharpehaven, Zargonia)

The most common type of a city we have. Out of these, Abilene will most likely be facing much less than full 40 marines (even in theory), Sharpehaven can hopefully be blocked by stuffing all our BBs at the entrance to the city bay, just like with Zargonia - making their defense a non-issue.



You can see that for all practical purposes, this is the same as a city on a hill. 10-15 infantries or tanks with a couple of cannon fodder units, everything supported by a handsome of arty pieces shall make these safe.


Metropolis on hills
(Jackson)

Just a single city, but very valuable - it would wide open the way to our capital and be a severe loss to our economy.



Jackson would be an extremely tough nut to crack. Not even 4 marines grant you 50%+ chances to kill an infantry here. 3 marines are not enough to have 50%+ chances to kill a tank. And 1 marine is actually more likely to lose its fight with our cavalry there then the other way round. So, I'd say that 5 cannon fodder units and 10 infantries or tanks is more than enough.

It's, however, important to note that cities under attack from GoW may get heavily bombed, losing population. However, with 12 bombers maximum, losing 5-6 pop points is highly unlikely (we should add 1-2 workers to Dye Fields, though, if it is a possible target, and 1 worker to Port Hammer under the same circumstances). GS have no bombers, so no need to account for that on the West Coast.

[vondrack]

Aside from defending cities, we should still try to prevent GS/GoW from landing in a spot granting them a defense bonus while we counter-attack in 1260AD. We should try forcing them to land on flat land.

Speaking of which, Jack_www had a good idea in the chatroom. We have several fortresses on the Western Coast that would provide landed GS troops with 50% defense bonus if taken. As it is obvious we will not be able to man them properly (they are basically equal to cities on flat land), we should better destroy them.

The ones I am talking about are W-NW of Forkmouth and SE-SE of Forkmouth. There is one more N-N of Q.M., but I would try to man and keep that one, if we have units to. Otherwise, scrap it as well. None of these tiles are crucial for the production of the city working it (the desert one is actually not worked at all).

All it takes to destroy a fort is 3 cavalries - and those cavalries will still be ready to fortify wherever we need them. I would actually be daring enough to immediately rebuild the mine on the grassland tile W-NW of Forkmouth - if GS sends a marine to grab the 2 workers, fine. We kill it next turn and exchange 20 shields and 2 pop points for 100S. It would be a bargain!

[vondrack]

So... this is where I probably stop my planning. I am going to put the regular turn plan together, but it's not going to be as detailed as usually, since we are unlikely to get our empire back exactly as we left it in 1250AD.

The above posted plans and information is what we are going to need to decide how to properly deploy our defenses.

I suggest we carry out Operations Wasp Hive and Busy Bee and then stop, put all information gathered together and using the guidelines above prepare a precise plan for the Operation Helm's Deeps.

In the meantime, feel free to come up with new ideas! Even the craziest ones may help!

[Jack_www]

I think the plans for the GS invasion are pretty good. I am just worried about GOW and were they might strike.

[lmtoops]

Here's a thought. We could increase the population of Sandonorico to 12, which would make it a metropolis. The city has a harbor that could feed the additional citizens.

As Jack pointed out, that's the million dollar questions are:
Where is GoW? and Is there another GS fleet?

The answer is exactly as Vondrack stated, we do our intelligence moves, and then adjust as needed.

[vondrack]

Originally posted by lmtoops
Here's a thought. We could increase the population of Sandonorico to 12, which would make it a metropolis. The city has a harbor that could feed the additional citizens.

Unfortunately, pop 12 is still city. Metros start from pop 13 up. With no hospital in Sandonorico (and no way to build one now), we have no way to promote the city to metropolis.

I at least rushed barracks in Sandonorico last turn, so that if we get attacked there, wounded units would heal fast, hopefully being available for counter-attack immediately. Though... I admit I am not sure when do units actually heal - is it when we open our incoming save or when the full turn ends (when GS opens their save)?

[rendelnep]

hmmm, bad thought, bad thought, what ND discover our spy- wouldn't that render them outright hostile. How would we look then- oh dear

[vondrack]

Originally posted by rendelnep
hmmm, bad thought, bad thought, what ND discover our spy- wouldn't that render them outright hostile. How would we look then- oh dear

We would look perfectly normal.

Everybody has or wants to have a spy with everybody. I actually admitted having a spy with ND in my chat with Darekill - and he told me they had spies with both GS and GoW, planning to plant one with us ASAP. He said it was no big secret we had spies all over the world, considering how long we'd been knowing Espionage...

This is not SP, where dumb AIs declare war over failed spy insertion attempts.

So - no worries, ND knows and is apparently ok, as they did not report any hostilities in 1255AD.