War Is Coming: what do we do about it?

[vondrack]

As for GoW & pillaging... first, it's not really in the GoW's interest to help GS that much. They must know they are quite behind them, lacking techs and lacking the ultra-efficient economy of GS (have a look at GoW's empire in the save). It is in their best interest to do something well defined and not really costly - I do not believe GoW has 20-30 infantries to simply throw away (keep in mind they are the only party having a land neighbour in this mess).

ATM, we are severely disadvantaged by the tech gap between us & GS. We are no longer #1 in Mfg. Goods (should we go out and tell GoW/ND what a monster GS is, again? perhaps we should...). That's advantages enough for GS - that's actually just enough for a war of attrition between us and GS. Exactly what GoW & ND need to catch up.

So, I would expect GoW to do "their" thing again (happened during the Luxian and Stormian Wars). To commit a pretty limited stack under strictly defined conditions (like "we throw away that many units to distract Lego and you give us these techs"). Then, they will only watch, being passively hostile to us, and hope for us & GS to beat the crap out of each other.

And second... it's quite easy to bog a force of infantry & cavalry down. Cavalry is ultimately unable to break through even half-decent infantry defenses (any idea why we are building all those fortresses around Jackson and Legopolis? ) - unless in LARGE numbers. A stack of infantry is able to pillage one tile per turn. Negligible.

If we commit a stack of 30-50 arty pieces to destruction of such a stack, it would take like 2 turns, I imagine - the key is you have to fear a counter-attack from such a stack much less than from a stack with tanks.

But agreed. Let's not underestimate them too much. That's why I am considering it a given we need a spy with GoW, too.

[Tiberius]

2 turns

As for GoW - GS: what could be the interest of GS? Simply to slow us down? What do they win this way? Time, of course, but is it enough to win the game?

And can GoW be so naive to let GS win by spaceship, given their tech lead, research capability and strong production? GoW (and ND as well) have no chances to win this game without further conquests. So, are they betting on a Lego-GS atrition war, while prebuildin for a modern war? I really don't know. None of the options seems very convincing.

[ZargonX]

Maybe GS just decided it needs to take back that land from RP once and for all

[vondrack]

I believe the problem here is that every team views his situation from a different perspective. While for GS, time is running out, others prefer a slower build-up. Well... they have to, since they cannot build up faster (whether we talk about a "scientific" or "military" or "combined" build-up).

The only team being in a hurry here is GS. If they do nothing, they are going to lose in the long run. GoW & ND will not support them without getting all their cool techs - and GS will not be able to win on their own. Their Hoover advantage would gradually diminish as others build their power plants (-> means losing the advantage in any military resolution). Plus, there is the strategic resource problem... altogether, too much risk.

So, GS must do something - just building-up for some kind of a "future" war is futile. Their best window of opportunity is right now - tanks against infantry have a pretty decent chance, when there are no tanks to counterattack. Such a technology advantage is not going to happen again.

OK, now it is... What about the "target"? GoW or ND? Some juicy land, close enough... but there is the bloody Legoland. Lego will never allow GS to gain a fine chunk of Bobian land. Proven in history. No need to verify the approach still applies.

OTOH, attacking Lego will make GoW & ND happy - at least, they're likely to stay neutral for quite some time.

So - even if attacking us may not be such a bright idea speaking absolutely, it's still the relatively brightest idea - Lego is the only target unlikely to receive support from anyone else. The only target that is most likely capable to win the game on its own if it ever came to the SS race.

It's something GS can do... just sitting in their splendid isolation is not going to win the game for them. Granted, GS may not win the game by attacking us... but the war can lose the game for us. That's what we need to focus on...

[vondrack]

Originally posted by ZargonX
Maybe GS just decided it needs to take back that land from RP once and for all

[Tiberius]

I'd think that the attack will come when we discover electronics. or slightly earlier, so in about 10 turns.

I also don't think that GoW will commit 25 infantries, but but less than that is almost nothing.

I am trying to imagine what the others may think:
GS: Lego is the only one who can beat us in the spacerace, let's cripple them.
GoW: Let Gs and Lego fight to the death, we will catch up scietifically in the meantime and apply the final blow to GS or ND in the modern era.

Something like this or is it something else?

Edit: this and what Radek says. Yes, it sounds more and more logical.

just one remark about ND: even if we would jump to defend ND, GS knows that we don't really have a chance defending them without tanks, so while it is true that they have a window of opportunity, it is true not only against us but also against us+ND. Maybe they even hope that we would send our troops beyond the sees and let Legoland relatively undefended. The fact is that GS still needs a FP. Besides, ND is weak even compared to us, so they are much weaker than GS. In the same time, I think that GoW wouldn't ally with ND this time. The only thing that speaks against such an attack is that it wouldn't hurt us.

[vondrack]

One more thing... if we agree on slowing down for 2t (I'm strongly convinced we need at least 1t, but would prefer 2t), then we need to decide how to handle the upgrades.

As shown in the cashflow analysis, we will basically have money to upgrade everything but 2-3 cannons in 1140AD... that's, by coincidence, the turn we finish the Intelligence Agency. So, I suggest upgrading as many rifles this turn as needed to become average vs. GS. Nothing else, just hoard the gold. Next turn nothing, more gold into the coffers... then in 1140AD, we plant a spy and depending on what we find out, spend the saved gold on cannons and rifles (the ratio to be adjusted to the actual composition of GS forces).

In the meantime, just keep the gold flowing to Vox, 1 pike-to-infantry upgrade per turn (only 4 more to go ATM).

Thoughts?

[Tiberius]

Sounds good, even though I'd prefer upgrading some cannons as well.

[vondrack]

Have you noticed this?

Originally posted by Darekill
1120 to the Warmongering fools....

[lmtoops]

I agree with slowing the research by 2t.

There are too many potential outcomes to speculate on the final war scenerio. Unless it's a hoax (which I doubt), the answer to all war scenerios is to upgrade the units.

I think it's very possible that GoW and GS have devided up ND so that they would be roughly equal in size. So the build up may be to quickly dispose of SD.
1. This would get the land area that GS must have.
2. This would bring GoW even with GS and Legoland (roughly), so that all have an even chance to win.
3. If they create a Legoland/ND alliance, then this would hurt our economy, and slow us down. They would not declare war on us so we would get no happiness advantage. If the stike is quick enough, Legoland may have second thoughts about joining a losing war.

This could be another likely scenerio.

NOTE: If this war between GoW/GS vs ND comes about, we could sign a MPP with ND. The MPP would trigger our entry into the war (? Does this eliminate the initial WW ? not sure about that).

[vondrack]

Originally posted by lmtoops
NOTE: If this war between GoW/GS vs ND comes about, we could sign a MPP with ND. The MPP would trigger our entry into the war (? Does this eliminate the initial WW ? not sure about that).

Which bring us to an interesting question. What would we do if ND got attacked by GS, GoW, or both?

[Tiberius]

Well, we couldn't do too much, could we? This is why we wanted to help ND in their build phase, to make them a strong enough opponent for GoW and GS. Lacking tanks, our military involvement in the war would be a joke. We could help ND with gold and techs, but that would only delay the innevitable. We could also delay ND's defeat with our infantries and artilleries, but it'd be probably impossible to win the war, so why waste the resources then?

[Tiberius]

Hmm, if GS invaded ND with hordes of tanks and infantries, we could maybe try a surprise landing on a less defended Stormia?

[lmtoops]

Hmmmm

I'm sure they have a picket, so the surprise would be minimal.
We would need tanks to be effective; so we need the techs and then we need to build tanks. Not to mention the transports and navy to protect the transports.

If we are talking about a 10t time frame, I don't see it happening.

Of course if GS/GoW is destroying ND, we would have to rethink many of our strategies.

[vondrack]

Agreed on that prior to tanks, our options would be very limited.

However, I just can't force myself to buy the whole idea. Speaking strictly ingame, forgetting history, a GS+GoW attack against ND would make a lot of sense, yes. It would actually be a MUCH better idea than to attack us. In some of my former thoughts, I failed to realize that GS do not need to fear a Lego+ND alliance THAT much, because Lego is, ATM, quite incapable of supporting ND with anything worth fearing. We'd be hardly able to defend ourselves properly - much the less to defend ND, considering our technology lag.

But... that (ingame only, no history) is not the case. GoW & ND have a long history of cooperation and mutual trust. One of them attacking the other would surely look like a low blow... I know I do not believe ND would attack GoW. I am not 100.00% sure about GoW never attacking ND, that much I will admit, but I still consider highly unlikely that GoW would be willing to strike a deal with GS on cutting ND's throat (just remember all the bad blood between them... their cooperation we are seeing is not a sign of true friendship, but of a necessity).

Besides, GoW would be risking FAR more than GS - with no tanks (GoW is unlikely to have tanks any time soon, as that would make 3 techs much cheaper for us, which GS won't allow, IMHO), their chances would be pretty much even against ND. Unlike with GS, who'd be roaming around with tanks.

Most spoils of war would thus go to GS, who would be safe behind the water. GoW would have to take most risk, being exposed along a very long border, facing a desperate and very, very angry and extremely bitter enemy.

I just can't buy that...