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**Spiffor** · March 29, 2004, 12:44

In short, we are currently experiencing a stalemate in the aftermath of the Great Bobian War. This stalemate favors us and ND the most. It gives a chance to GS. It is ungood for GoW. And it threw RP and Vox out.
As such, a great World War involving at least the 4 major teams, is only a question of time.

I think GoW will obviously try to attack one of the three other big teams. It could be ND, or it could be us. They can attack us with relative ease (a transport coming from Zenophobia can unload GoW units near Castlea in the same turn), but I think they might try to coalesce against ND instead.
Indeed, ND is much more difficult to defend, they have a worse industrial base than us to counter attack, and GS can unload on Bob easier than on Legos. I think ND fears being labeled as a "target" as much as we do, and that's why they approached us with a MPP: to avoid siding with GoW when they'll declare war on them.

When we look at GS' perspective, a war is needed, but not for the same reasons. They don't need to expand their assets to have a good chance at victory. Instead, they need merely to slightly weaken their opponents, so that they can remain at the top.
For the time being, I think GS is most likely to want to attack us, with Vox's participation. For Vox, a GS-Legoland war would be great news: GS does all the dirty work of weakening us, Vox only participates in giving a territory where the units could land and rest. And Vox gets techs and Lego cities for their participation (GS has no interest in conquering us, but Vox has).

With a GS-Lego war, Vox could once again dream of grandeur. I would hardly be surprised if they had already talked about it with GS, without deciding anything though.
We need to keep Vox on our side, because they can be good allies, once they're done rebuilding. But we need to motivate them with more than "hey, we allowed you to survive on Legos Minor, so please be thankful". We need to associate them with our victory; we can for example share the spoils of war with them: for example, should we be at war with GoW, I suggest we conquer Zenophobia isle, and then give it to them.

ND will want peace for a time. But at some point, they may want to go to war as well. Indeed, their territory is far more difficult to defend than ours, especially against a GoW agression. Should the situation be good, I expect them to turn against their former allies, in order to possess Bob in its entirety. This way, they'll be alone on their continent, and they'll turn to a defense strategy similar to ours.

Even us may want to wage an agressive war at some point: if ND plays it right, and if they avoid being declared war in an untimely fashion, the Space Race victory will be theirs. In such a situation, we will want to prune them much like GS wants to prune us. Nothing too harsh, nothing too evil. Just a swift wreckage of their production capabilities, so that they can't possibly outpace us.

**Spiffor** · March 29, 2004, 12:45

I think we can profit from the overall geopolitical situation. A World War is unavoidable, but we can become the hegemon after such a world war, if we play it right.
To that effect, we need not to be the target of the War, but one of the actors. It is very possible a two-major-teams coaliscion forms against ND, and it is possible such coalition forms against GS. We should try not to be too powerful too soon (hence we should avoid the industrial wonders altogether), so that such coalitions not against us become possible.

In such a situation, our aim will be that all teams involved get weakened. We cannot allow an easy victory for the attackers, and we cannot allow an easy counterattack for the defender. Ideally, they fight as much as possible, and we back the loser when the situation becomes really serious for them.
The best outcome of such a war would be a roughly equivalent territory repartition (maybe with RP and Vox progressing a little, to further restrict the big teams), but after every other team wasted considerable shields and money in the war, and with hopefully much destruction of tile and city improvements.

If all teams are weakened in a World War like that, our economic, scientific, industrial and military hegemony will be acquired, and our rivals couldn't hope to form a coalition to bring us to our knees. At least not before we reach the stars.

**vondrack** · March 29, 2004, 13:11

Will comment on your posts shortly, Spiffor.

Glad to see you becoming more active!

**Kloreep** · March 29, 2004, 19:53

I agree world war is pretty much inevitable. I imagine it will occur after one of two things: Marines, or Nukes. Steam Power is about to make most oversea wars impossible, leaving only GoW and ND as possible aggressors, really. But even a war between those two would slog, as Riflemen are coming on the scene, and with enough bonuses and cannon backing, they can stop cavalry pretty cold unless there's a numerical advantage.

I'm not so optimistic about our fate in a world war, though. Regardless of whether we get industrial wonders, we've gotten many of the prime midieval ones, we have fairly expansive lands, and the other teams must know we now lead the important demographics. No team would be so stupid as to devote all their energies to attacking some other team while leaving us alone. I think a world war will likely be between haves (who have a chance at wininng space race; we are definitely in this category as the tech/production leader) and have nots (pretty much anyone can fall in to this category depending on how they compare to others). The have nots will be attacking the haves, with a goal ranging from taking them down a peg to give the have nots a chance, to completely destroying the haves in an attempt to win domination.

If you want domination, you're going to have to get at least a piece of Legos. If you want to put yourself in competition with the space race leaders, Lego, as the probable leader, is a necessary target. Either way, we are going to be involved, and Marines are going to make us vulnerable. And I would hate to see what nukes can do to our land...

**vondrack** · March 29, 2004, 20:23

Re: Let's talk about geopolitics

Originally posted by Spiffor
Well, maybe these talks have been already held here or in the public forums, but I think the current situation is worth discussing.

I guess that commenting your posts(s) will be the easiest way to get you fully updated on the current situation:

Originally posted by Spiffor
We are at the beginning of the industrial era, and we can already guess who has a shot at victory now:
- Roleplayers: forget it. Unless somebody is nice enough to give them generous spoils in a future war, they are completely out now (and even then, they wouldn't have a shot at victory, only a shot at being significant again). 4 cities, and traits that don't fit their situation at all, il the best way for them not to have any chance.

Agreed. RP is a zombie living on only because GS did not feel easy about letting them die after the lost war - they (GS) thought Stormia was too small to win the game anyway, with or without a piece of land for the Spanish refugees...

Originally posted by Spiffor
- Vox: They're out of the race to victory, but they are still able to weight quite much in a future war, or tech race. I don't know if they still believe at their chance of victory, and if they intend to reach it. If not, I suppose they intend to have as an important role as possible in helping determining who'll win.
The only way for them to claim victory would be that all major world powers become wrecked by a World War that doesn't affect them, and then seizing some rich territory from weakened Legoland, IMHO.

Vox is a special case. We saved Vox from extinction after they lost a war against GS (Vox started where RP lives now, in Estonia). We supported them in that war, albeit a bit secretly (it may be that GS is still not fully aware of our role in that war). We helped Vox by setting a new home for them, we are feeding them with techs for free and they share their techs with us for free, too.

Even though we must always keep in mind that everybody can backstab, Voxes have little to gain but total infamy if they turn against the team that helped them live on. We shall not neglect our defenses on the common border, but there is a 99,9% chance that Vox will remain our most loyal ally, considering our victory their own goal (they actually stated so).

Their importance for us lies within their scientific trait. Not only we get their free tech for free, but they have cheap libs and unis, which help them research at a pretty good pace (considering the piece of rock they have to work with). They are sort of an "insurance" against others embargoing us tech-wise, as they could pick the techs done by others which we might be unable to trade for.

Originally posted by Spiffor
- Glory of War. A pretty big territory, many cities with great potential, a militaristic trait, and a good diplomacy. All of that make them good contenders for winning a war. However, of all the 4 major teams, they seem the weakest industrially and tech-wise, and the gap will probably deepen. Unless a war shakes the current balance of power soon, they won't be able to claim victory. And I'm sure they know it. I expect them to prepare for war against whichever power that isn't prepared to it yet.

This is not completely true. GoW is much stronger than ND, as far as economy is concerned. It's because ND had to hand over a number of their fine (even core) cities as a payment for the GoW help in The Great Bobian War. GoW actually researches pretty well, we traded numerous techs with them in the not so distant past (Chemistry, Metallurgy, Military Tradition, we have a deal arranged for Medicine now). However, they cannot win without winning a war against somebody, that's correct - but that applies to every single team, but us. We are the only or almost only (a full tech embargo might be a problem) team that can win if there is no more war in this game.

Originally posted by Spiffor
- Gathering Storm: significant territory, obvious technology lead that will last at least until the early modern era, powerful traits, good shot at getting ToE and Hoover's. They have an excellent chance to win the game, if not for a territory that is smaller than the other powers'. That's why they are likely to need a war to secure their dominance, against any upstart Civ threateneing it.

I do not think I can agree with this assessment, GS is actually out of race, unless they are able to ally with someone else helping them swallow a third party (like ND or us). Stormia is too small (about half the size of Legos) and GS will not be able to remain competitive if sticking with just their homeland. Unless they succeed to expand, they can forget about winning the game (and they know it). I don't see their tech lead (currently about 2 techs) surviving into the modern era. GS will get ToE & Hoover, that's for sure (we don't even compete, as we've determined we had no chance to outresearch and outbuild them - we were delayed by researching optional techs because of Magellan's, Bach's, and Smith's).

Originally posted by Spiffor
- Legoland: huge territory, industrial lead, commercial lead, growing military, growing scientific potential, good diplomatic relationships. We're the favorites for the Space Race. And we're the ones with a huge "Target" printed on us.
This is our main weakness: we only have an excellent shot at victory if things remain peaceful, if they remain the way they are. And they won't: the other major teams won't hand us our victory on a silver platter. They'll try to prune us, to get the lead at the right moment.
I don't think they'll want to wipe us out completely (although they'll do it if their initial onslaught makes it possible). But they'll try to weaken us, to raze our cities or hand them to Vox, so that we are out of the equation. And unless another team becomes big on the radar, this WILL happen.

This WILL happen. We WILL get attacked. Period. There is nothing we can do about it, our diplomacy will only be able to delay that moment, hopefully. Our lead in terms of the strenght of our economy (especially in shields) is such that nobody has a chance to win this game, unless we are cut to size. However, with our huge economy lead, we have built ourselves an impressive army and intend to remain very strong militarily. Our focus on the middle branch of the industrial tech tree should guarantee that we never fall behind in military techs. Once we lay down our RR backbone, it will become extremely costly to invade us. Personally, I only fear a total gang-up: GoW+ND+GS against us (which is why we are nurturing our improving relationship with ND - as long as there are only 2 teams against us, we are fine).

Originally posted by Spiffor
- Neu Demogyptica.
They don't look like it, with them not being especially strong tech-wise. But they are bound to get the best territory among all teams, when they'll finish resettling former Spain. Fertile and huge territory, better than anybody else's. If they play it right (i.e. if they have 0% science once they get industrialization + electricity + sanitation, so that they can go on a building spree), they'll have the most impressive industrial machine by the end of the industrial era. Better than us.
I expect that's the reason why they approached us with a MPP proposal. Both of us have most to benefit from keeping the status quo, as it will allow us to outpace any other team by the time the Space Race begins.

No way. ND can never reach the level of our economy (assuming peace). They are basically like 150-200 turns behind us. Their territory will end up being a bit smaller than ours (they still have some cities to hand over to GoW) and is woefully underdeveloped in terms of both city and terrain improvements. Majority of their current cities are quite new.

ND is actually so weak economically, that we are sort of trying to help them regain their balance - feeding them with great tech deals, leasing workers to help with terrain improvements etc. One of my main concerns ATM is the possibility of GoW and GS jumping at ND. Both of them have good reasons to - and we'd have no choice than to support ND militarily, getting drawn into the war. The faster ND catches up on GoW & GS, the better.

Originally posted by Spiffor
In short, we are currently experiencing a stalemate in the aftermath of the Great Bobian War. This stalemate favors us and ND the most. It gives a chance to GS. It is ungood for GoW. And it threw RP and Vox out.
As such, a great World War involving at least the 4 major teams, is only a question of time.

Actually, this "stalemate" (not sure if it really is a stalemate) only favours us, nobody else. Everybody else is weaker than us in at least one department - in shields. ATM, we are generating as many shields per turn as GoW+GS+ND combined. That will change with our GA ending in a couple of turns, but we still have a huuuuuge lead on the rest of the world. And as explained above, ND is actually the most endangered species these days because of their feeble economy.

Originally posted by Spiffor
I think GoW will obviously try to attack one of the three other big teams. It could be ND, or it could be us. They can attack us with relative ease (a transport coming from Zenophobia can unload GoW units near Castlea in the same turn), but I think they might try to coalesce against ND instead.
Indeed, ND is much more difficult to defend, they have a worse industrial base than us to counter attack, and GS can unload on Bob easier than on Legos. I think ND fears being labeled as a "target" as much as we do, and that's why they approached us with a MPP: to avoid siding with GoW when they'll declare war on them.

Agreed on that ND would be the likely target for GoW. As for the possibility of GoW attacking us: that would be a total suicide. Unless we are attacked by a coalition of all three "strong" teams (GS+GoW+ND), we will be able to handle anything swiftly. Troops landing near Castlea would die on the turn they'd land. All of them. We have 50 cavs and 30 cannon - and within less than 10 turns, our RR backbone will allow to deploy these anywhere within our realm. I am not afraid of a surprise GoW attack (this is, however, not to say we should not be prepared for the very possibility).

Originally posted by Spiffor
When we look at GS' perspective, a war is needed, but not for the same reasons. They don't need to expand their assets to have a good chance at victory. Instead, they need merely to slightly weaken their opponents, so that they can remain at the top.
For the time being, I think GS is most likely to want to attack us, with Vox's participation. For Vox, a GS-Legoland war would be great news: GS does all the dirty work of weakening us, Vox only participates in giving a territory where the units could land and rest. And Vox gets techs and Lego cities for their participation (GS has no interest in conquering us, but Vox has).

Spiffor, perhaps you should take a second look at the map. GS is in dire need of another war, but exactly because they do not have land enough. Stormia is about 250 tiles. Legos is about 450 tiles, Bob is about 800 tiles. That's no match.

As for Vox... I simply do not believe they would ever help GS against us. It was us saving Vox from extinction by GS. It is us keeping them on par tech-wise. What kind of people they would have to be to turn against us? If they do turn against us, I quit playing Civ and visiting Poly for good.

I mean it.

However, we must consider the possibility of someone else taking Vox by a surprise attack, gaining the beachhead despite Voxes not being consciously part of the plan... our common border must not be neglected.

Originally posted by Spiffor
We need to keep Vox on our side, because they can be good allies, once they're done rebuilding. But we need to motivate them with more than "hey, we allowed you to survive on Legos Minor, so please be thankful". We need to associate them with our victory; we can for example share the spoils of war with them: for example, should we be at war with GoW, I suggest we conquer Zenophobia isle, and then give it to them.

Agreed on having to constantly work on our friendship with Vox, ackowledging how important they are for us, at least from time to time. They would be the natural recipient of any spoils of our war against other teams, that's for sure.

I believe we do our best to keep Vox motivated - by keeping them on par tech-wise, we make it possible for them to make a difference. They researched Printing Press and Democracy in the previous age and will do even more in this age. That's more than what e.g. ND (or RP) can claim.

Originally posted by Spiffor
ND will want peace for a time. But at some point, they may want to go to war as well. Indeed, their territory is far more difficult to defend than ours, especially against a GoW agression. Should the situation be good, I expect them to turn against their former allies, in order to possess Bob in its entirety. This way, they'll be alone on their continent, and they'll turn to a defense strategy similar to ours.

That is possible, yes. However, if ND attacks GoW, we side with GoW and prevent ND from winning such a war. If GoW attacks ND, we do it the other way round. It is us pulling the ropes - until the rest of the world unites against us.

Originally posted by Spiffor
Even us may want to wage an agressive war at some point: if ND plays it right, and if they avoid being declared war in an untimely fashion, the Space Race victory will be theirs. In such a situation, we will want to prune them much like GS wants to prune us. Nothing too harsh, nothing too evil. Just a swift wreckage of their production capabilities, so that they can't possibly outpace us.

Completely disagreed. We will beat ND to SS easily, if this game remains peaceful. Their potential is vastly inferior to ours, mostly because of having to start almost from scratch after The Great Bobian War, having no good wonders (while we have Pyramids, Bach's, and Smith's and will most probably get Sistine, too).

Originally posted by Spiffor
I think we can profit from the overall geopolitical situation. A World War is unavoidable, but we can become the hegemon after such a world war, if we play it right.

Ummm... we can cease being the hegemon, if we play it wrong. We are the hegemon now. Have a look at the figures I posted few days ago in the Next Turn Plans thread. Our military is strong vs. everybody. We are the only team enjoying peaceful GA.

Originally posted by Spiffor
To that effect, we need not to be the target of the War, but one of the actors. It is very possible a two-major-teams coaliscion forms against ND, and it is possible such coalition forms against GS. We should try not to be too powerful too soon (hence we should avoid the industrial wonders altogether), so that such coalitions not against us become possible.

Well, Spiffor, as I said - we're so powerful ATM that our only hope is others do not have a clue. If they knew, they would attack us immediately with all they have. We cannot really "try to not be too powerful too soon" - it's too late for this.

Originally posted by Spiffor
In such a situation, our aim will be that all teams involved get weakened. We cannot allow an easy victory for the attackers, and we cannot allow an easy counterattack for the defender. Ideally, they fight as much as possible, and we back the loser when the situation becomes really serious for them.
The best outcome of such a war would be a roughly equivalent territory repartition (maybe with RP and Vox progressing a little, to further restrict the big teams), but after every other team wasted considerable shields and money in the war, and with hopefully much destruction of tile and city improvements.

This I agree with. If we are so bloody lucky and the next war is not everybody against Lego, then we let others have some fun and only then restore the pre-war balance of power, maybe with more land for Vox (we are not going to help RP ever, trust me

).

Sorry if I sound a bit harsh at times... I do not mean to. The problem is that a good part of your post is based upon incorrect assumptions (but you had little chance to get it right from just the save). I suggest you have a look at the figures I posted here, you will understand better all this bragging about how great we are...

EDIT: Kloreep sums it up quite nicely. Agreed 100%.

**Spiffor** · March 29, 2004, 21:08

Thanks for the comments, guys. And thanks for correcting my misconceptions

Indeed, from what I read, it is pretty much unavoidable to be a target in the future, at some point before the Space Race starts.

Our main chance would be that ND becomes a target before us (it will be much easier for GS to get the direly needed territory from ND than from us, and a GoW - GS alliance against ND is easier, geography wise as well).

It is good that we are nurturing a good relationship with ND now. I understated their economic weakness, and they seem to need us indeed. Helping them in having a competitive economy can only help us if GS or GoW ever declares war to them. And it is not too dangerous should they side against us.

Besides, I think ND is really scared of becoming the next target. The unsettled or overstretched new lands just ask for a GS conquest. I think they will be thankful to us, and value any help we can give them to make them truly viable. Unless they have a very smart diplomacy, our help is vital for them, and they know it.

As such, should a war be declared against us by GoW and GS, I think they may prefer siding with us, and get Bobian spoils of war, instead of siding with them, and risk a wrathful vengeance along with uninteresting possible spoils of war. Tactically, they'd have it easier to attack GoW while their troops are on the sea (or on Legos), than to attack us and our hedgehog continent. We also need to convince them on that

And BTW, thanks for clearing me up of our relationship with Vox. I didn't know they considered our victory to be theirs. In this case, I think they are the most trustful allies we can ever find

**vondrack** · March 31, 2004, 17:50

I was pondering a bit about something that would also fall under the geopolitics, I think. Or geopsychologics, maybe.

Reading Spiffor's initial posts, I realized that unless he digged through dozens of lenghty chats, he could not really "feel" the attitude of other teams towards us (and vice versa).

Let me thus add a bit more on what would be part of the "out-game diplomacy" or "metagame". Mind you, all of the following is strictly my personal opinions, feelings, and assessments I developed through countless chats, PMs, and emails. Despite believing they are correct, it is naturally possible I am partially or completely wrong.

Vox Controli

As mentioned before, Voxes owe us their very existence. Granted, we helped them survive because of our own good reasons (gaining a loyal ally & research partner and filling Legos Minor, we had very little desire to settle ourselves, with a neighbour weak enough to pose as little threat to us as possible), but that did not change the fact that without our help, there would be one team less in this game, as everybody else abandoned Voxes when they started to lose.

And not only we 'let' them settle Legos Minor. We actually founded their new capital with our own settler, guarded it against barbs with our troops. We gifted Theology to GS in exchange for a peaceful Voxodus. Actually, the very city placement of all today's Voxtavian cities is 100% my own design - long time ago, shortly after we agreed on letting them find their refuge there, I sent Voxes a "study" of Legos Minor with an analysis of city placement and their potential (I had this done for ourselves, just for the case we would eventually settle it). Since the end of their lost war, we provided them with numerous techs (and an ongoing supply of dyes) for free, getting only Printing Press & Democracy in return.

If my information is correct, Vox is down to basically last 2 players - Beta and Rhothaerill. I consider Beta my very close friend here on Poly (we got to know each other well during The Stormian War and then later in a PBEM, where we waged a furious war). He's extremely good in talking other people into helping him, sometimes even twisting truth in his favour to achieve the objective. But he is a honorable man, that I am convinced of. And he vows for Rhoth, too.

So... call me naive, but I'm 99.9% sure that Vox will not turn against us, as long as it's Beta & Rhoth running the team. They simply have too little to gain from it - finishing 3rd, 4th, or 5th makes little difference, you still lose. It would be much better to keep one's honour. There is, however, the possibility that they allow someone new in, later cease being active - and the new guy may not honour the bonds in the same way Beta and Rhoth do now. That is something we shall watch out for.

Plus, we can never rule out the possibility of someone else taking Voxes by surprise, using their lands as a handy beachhead.

So, summing up our relationship with Vox: I consider them very trustworthy, as long as it's Beta & Rhoth. This is, however, not to say we could consider our common border automatically safe - only a bit "less threatened" than our other border areas.

I will do my best to add more on other teams later on

**lmtoops** · March 31, 2004, 19:52

Just to add something that would greatly effect any space race victory, we need to consider the possibility that we lack a key future resource (alum, and/or uranium). This situation has happend in the DON PBEM game (Tibi and Vondrack are involved), so it is very possible. If this is the case, than having good partners will increase our chance of victory.

Vox is a good partner, who I'm sure would share any resourse.

ND would not be so easy, but if we continue our strong support of ND and if they have no chance at victory themselves, we could greatly influence their decision.

I think there are other things we can do to help this situation, but the are concerned with pre-builds and capturing a resource for 1 turn. These discussion are best left for later and for another thread.

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