URGENT MATTER: spending gold to investigate?

[vondrack]

Based upon the discussison in the "industrial" thread and chats with redstar1 today and Kloreep yesterday, I'm getting more and more convinced it's time to spend some of our gold on investigating several cities of GS and GoW in order to find out what our chances of getting Sistine, ToE, Hoover, and/or US are.

Mind you, it's not just some small change, we are talking hundreds of gold pieces here. But redstar is right that possible rewards are quite huge. And I believe I'm right, too, that possible losses from losing a wonder race or races are huuuuge as well.

The GS cities in question (as per this post):

Arashi, 168g - with Tempest and Hurricane out (finished wonders recently), IMHO, this is the most likely GS ToE site: close to the capital, with an abundance of food to allow working all those mountains and hills.

Eye of the Storm, 168g - well, building ToE here would take some guts, as the capital could not switch to the palace if someone finished Sistine all of a sudden... but still, this is IMHO the second best GS ToE site.

If neither Arashi nor Eye show signs of a wonder prebuild, I'd consider ToE/Hoover still a possibility for us... even though I'd probably suggest investigating Blizzard and Monsoon, too, to be 90% sure (I would appreciate your thoughts about spending ~310g to check these two cities as well). It goes without saying that if Arashi had a ToE prebuild beyond our reach, no investigation of Eye would take place.

In case we find out we might have a shot at ToE/Hoover, I would forget of GoW, Imperial City, and US - and set everything up for ToE/Hoover race (see my posts in the industrial thread for how). If, however, we find out we are out of luck with ToE/Hoover, I'd check Imperial City to find out whether we could get at least the US:

Imperial City, 160g

Granted, spending from ~320 to ~800g on investigating is a pretty big deal... but we do have the gold. As of the last turn, we had ~1300g, with more than +400gpt flowing in. Then there is 500g we shall get for Magnetism from ND. We have all our knights upgraded, rifles coming in no earlier than in 3-4 turns - we will be able to replenish the coffers by then (keep in mind there is more than 400gpt flowing in every turn).

IMO, the strategic importance of the info we'd get is very well worth the gold - it would allow us to minimize our risks.

Do you agree to spend the gold on investigating the cities mentioned above?

Please, comment - and state, what investigations you support, if any. This is important - every turn we waste hesitating may be the crucial one.

[ZargonX]

I approve spending for Arashi, EoS, and Imperial City. I would say do those first, and then use your judgement as to whether it is necessary to do Monsoon and Blizard.

[redstar1]

I agree with spending the gold on this. I'd only do IC as a last resort though as its most likely they have an advanced wonder build in place... but I defer the minutae to the strategists

[Kloreep]

Agreed with Zargon, investigate Arashi and EoS, then the others if necessary.

Another good side of investigating GS is seeing how much gold they have in their coffers, which should help us estimate whether they can 4-turn all the techs on the way to ToE.

[vondrack]

Alrighty, I am happy to see we are all in the same boat. Investigate we will!

[vondrack]

Originally posted by ZargonX
I approve spending for Arashi, EoS, and Imperial City. I would say do those first, and then use your judgement as to whether it is necessary to do Monsoon and Blizard.

I have gone through a number of recent and not-so-recent saves (~20 of them), looking for clues on the production in large GS cities. Here is what I have found out:

Blizzard finished a harbour in 680AD. No need to investigate.

Sufa's radius first expanded in 610AD. Must have finished its first culture improvement in 560AD or 570AD. With its theoretical maximum of 15spt (cannot bother to determine that precisely, so it's 7 land tiles times 2spt + 1spt from the city), it's ruled out (it was an unlikely site anyway).

Bolderberg's radius first expanded in 550AD. Must have finished its first culture improvement in 500AD or 510AD. With its theoretical maximum of raw 16spt, it's ruled out - cannot finish a 600S wonder before 880AD, not even theoretically (it was an unlikely site anyway).

Dissidentville's radius first expanded in 490AD. Furthermore, it went from pop 6 to pop 11 in 560AD (most likely that's when the aqueduct was finished there). With the theoretical maximum of (13-1)spt at pop 6 & (19-1)spt at pop 11, plus -2t for an aqueduct build, it could purely theoretically (assuming only 1spt waste, which is clearly nonsense) finish a 600S wonder in about 810AD. As good as ruled out, IMHO.

Olibanum Gale went from pop 6 to pop 11 in 560AD.
Typhoon went from pop 6 to pop 8 in 580AD (and to pop 11 one turn later).
Monsoon went from pop 6 to pop 11 in 510AD.

This is a 95% chance that the cities finished aqueducts on those turns. As we'd finish ToE in 840AD... Olibanum Gale would have to keep producing 600/28=22spt net to be faster (impossible), Typhoon would have to keep producing 600/26=23spt net (impossible), and Monsoon would have to keep producing 600/33=19spt net (impossible). Unless GS left those cities undermanned while prebuilding a wonder there, these are as good as ruled out, IMHO.

So, the only cities which we cannot tell anything about:

Arashi - pop 10 until 580AD, pop 12 since 640AD.
Eye of the Storm - pop 12 all the time.
Tornado - pop 10 to 12 all the time (slowly growing)

In case Arashi and Eye are clear, I'd consider checking Tornado, too (166g) - just to be 100% sure (there are six bonus grasslands in the city radius, so the city can generate close to 20spt due to being very close to the capital).

[lmtoops]

I also approve of the decision to investigate.

[Tiberius]

Hi all

Seems like we are in a wonder race, hmm ? Exciting!

In case that's important, I also agree to spent some gold from our coffers. I'd also agree to spending some money in order to buy me an appartment in Erfurt, avoiding this way to rent one No? Oh well, I tried it at least.

I still don't have my own computer at work, so my posts will be a rarity for a while. Nevertheless, I am reading the forums now and then.



PS Bloody german keyboards. The letters and signs are not where they are supposed to be. I'm typing twice as much as normally

[vondrack]

Heeeeyyy, Tibi!

So glad to hear from you again.

How's life in Germany? Aside from the bloody keyboards, of course...

As for the wonder race - we are actually trying to find out whether we are in or not.

[Tiberius]

Originally posted by vondrack
How's life in Germany? Aside from the bloody keyboards, of course...

Well, good, thank you There's a bit of stess with all the accomodation, the new work, searching for an appartment, etc, but otherwise all is fine. If only I knew german better
I'll keep you updated.

As for the wonder race - we are actually trying to find out whether we are in or not.

Well, we'd better be in

See you later

[ZargonX]

It's Tibi! But he's turned... German!?

[vondrack]

OK, guys, it's time to reveal the secret. This has been in the works for quite some time - and I believe we can tell you now.

Tibi is actually one of the workers that are sailing over to the Bonigo area (code-named Erfurt for the purpose of communicating messages). His mission is to spy on the Germans and report everything that might be of interest to us...

[Tiberius]

Genau! Errr, I mean, exactly