With Mediavel Era ending in 2 turns for us, we should pause and ponder a bit about how we approach the next age.
First, the tech chart (blue numbers denote beaker costs):
Second, let's make a brief summary of known facts:
a) GS entered the industrial ages on Turn 181 - their lead on us is thus about 6 turns (as we will enter the next era on Turn 187).
b) GoW entered the industrial ages on Turn 184 - their lead on us is thus about 3 turns
c) there are only three great wonders in the Industrial Era: Universal Suffrage (800S, reduces WW in all cities), Theory of Evolution (600S, grants two free techs), and Hoover Dam (800S, free hydro plant in every city).
d) we have no wonder prebuild worth mentioning
e) we still need to build the 600S Sistine Chapel
f) Vox is currently able to generate ~160bpt, at ~-40gpt
g) GA aside, our economy is miles ahead of others in terms of shield production and quickly improving in terms of gold/beaker production (just look at all those banks and universities we are building)
Now, considering all this, let me state few things I consider a given or highly probably:
A) unless GS has some sort of a surprise for us, they are beelining for ToE and Hoover - unless they screwed something big time, they will get both of them, because they started the whole thing well ahead of everybody else.
B) GoW is most likely prebuilding a wonder in Imperial City. Thanks to all those wines, they can easily get close to 30spt there.
C) The faster the technology race progresses, the better for us (as we will be the ones to benefit most - thanks to our great shield production, we will be able to benefit most from the new techs - actually building the improvements and units rather than just being able to build them).
D) Unless we badly neglect our military or fall behind in the military research, we shall not be swept away by an invasion from outside. With FIFTY cavalries ready to counter any attacks right now and RRs coming in just few turns, Fortress Legoland is a dream to come true very soon.
Let me propose a general strategy for the Industrial Era, with a few concrete ideas for the early part of it:
Military:
I. Make sure we never fall behind in military research.
II. Maintain a strong standing army of the most recent units.
III. Railroad Legos as fast as possible.
Research:
IV. Research as fast as possible, to make others depending on techs purchased from us as much as possible.
IV. Focus on never getting behind in military techs.
Diplomacy:
VI. Keep the world divided - let's do our best to keep everybody else pretty much at the same level overall (so that none of them is too eager to fully trust the other two).
VII. Trade techs very easily, so that others are unable to fully utilize them.
Wonders:
VIII. Waive ALL three industrial great wonders, focus on getting the Sistine Chapel & grabbing the early Modern Era wonders (UN, SETI, Internet).
I hope everybody will comment on these proposals (mind you - they are proposals ONLY! meant to incite a healthy debate). Let me start with one part of this strategy that may be surprising: waiving ALL the industrial wonders. Huh?
Why? Well... aside from everything else... I do not really believe we still have a shot at them, especially if we are to build the Sistine Chapel at the same time. Plus, I think we will serve our purpose better by letting others grab them (see Proposal VI. - keep the world divided).
Firs, let's rehash the wonder stuff again:
Sistine Chapel - 3 unhappy citizens less in every city with a cathedral. Likely, these 3 citizens generate ~5spt/~10gpt per city. Multiply that by at least 20 cities and 100 turns. That is a lot of shields and arrows. Plus, all cities with cathedrals and colosseums will be able to grow to pop 20 (means to work all their tiles) with just dyes and luxury slider at 10% - that is, even if we are targetted by a luxury embargo.
Universal Suffrage - lowers the WW in all cities. Now, I know this might be a cute wonder to grab, just in case we need to wage a prolonged defensive war... but frankly, if we get into WW-related troubles, we will be in much bigger troubles anyway (IIRC, WW comes mostly from losing units and cities, having enemy units in your territory and yours in theirs etc. - things we do not believe will be likely to happen, unless we're in real deep **** anyway). As our long-term strategy is to avoid wars as much as possible, I do not think these 800S would be well spent.
Hoover Dam - this one is real big. A free hydro plant in every city - for us, it'd be 27*240-800=5440S for free, assuming factories everywhere. As much as I'd love to have it, GS has much better chances to get it. Unless we get the tech GS started to research after going industrial for free from Vox, I do not see how we could catch up with GS - due to the 4-turn research limit, we can't gain more than 1-2t per every tech on them. Fortunately, GS will not be able to compete with our economy in terms of shield production even if they get Hoover Dam.
Theory of Evolution - only good to grab Hoover Dam safely. You spend ~11000 beakers on research & 600S on the wonder to get ~9000 beakers for free and the ability to spend 800S on Hoover Dam. This is usually a rather good deal - but I think that in this game, we will be able to make the "loss" up by our more potent economy, on condition it's GS getting the ToE+Hoover combo.
So, considering all this, I believe it would be best to let or even help (by providing them with Industrialization) GoW build Universal Suffrage (suits their warmonger trait nicely), and let GS build ToE+Hoover. We could use this to our great advantage: we might try striking a deal with GS, waiving the ToE+Hoover combo in their favour to allow trading techs with them - we do the middle part of the tree, they do the lower part. We'd ensure we get all the crucial military techs in time w/o having to rely on anyone else (like we recently had to rely on GoW with Military Tradition), preventing "windows of opportunity" for others to strike at us with superior forces.
I believe that if we decide to go this way, it would be best to approach GS before Voxes get their industrial tech - as GS would still fear us getting "their" tech, catching up, and actually outbuilding them to ToE (and automatically to Hoover, then, too - they do not know if and what kind of prebuilds we might have). If we wait for the Voxian tech and get a "wrong" one, they will know we are out of luck - and the likelihood of them striking a deal with us would be lower.
Eagerly looking forward to your comments...
First, the tech chart (blue numbers denote beaker costs):
Second, let's make a brief summary of known facts:
a) GS entered the industrial ages on Turn 181 - their lead on us is thus about 6 turns (as we will enter the next era on Turn 187).
b) GoW entered the industrial ages on Turn 184 - their lead on us is thus about 3 turns
c) there are only three great wonders in the Industrial Era: Universal Suffrage (800S, reduces WW in all cities), Theory of Evolution (600S, grants two free techs), and Hoover Dam (800S, free hydro plant in every city).
d) we have no wonder prebuild worth mentioning
e) we still need to build the 600S Sistine Chapel
f) Vox is currently able to generate ~160bpt, at ~-40gpt
g) GA aside, our economy is miles ahead of others in terms of shield production and quickly improving in terms of gold/beaker production (just look at all those banks and universities we are building)
Now, considering all this, let me state few things I consider a given or highly probably:
A) unless GS has some sort of a surprise for us, they are beelining for ToE and Hoover - unless they screwed something big time, they will get both of them, because they started the whole thing well ahead of everybody else.
B) GoW is most likely prebuilding a wonder in Imperial City. Thanks to all those wines, they can easily get close to 30spt there.
C) The faster the technology race progresses, the better for us (as we will be the ones to benefit most - thanks to our great shield production, we will be able to benefit most from the new techs - actually building the improvements and units rather than just being able to build them).
D) Unless we badly neglect our military or fall behind in the military research, we shall not be swept away by an invasion from outside. With FIFTY cavalries ready to counter any attacks right now and RRs coming in just few turns, Fortress Legoland is a dream to come true very soon.
Let me propose a general strategy for the Industrial Era, with a few concrete ideas for the early part of it:
Military:
I. Make sure we never fall behind in military research.
II. Maintain a strong standing army of the most recent units.
III. Railroad Legos as fast as possible.
Research:
IV. Research as fast as possible, to make others depending on techs purchased from us as much as possible.
IV. Focus on never getting behind in military techs.
Diplomacy:
VI. Keep the world divided - let's do our best to keep everybody else pretty much at the same level overall (so that none of them is too eager to fully trust the other two).
VII. Trade techs very easily, so that others are unable to fully utilize them.
Wonders:
VIII. Waive ALL three industrial great wonders, focus on getting the Sistine Chapel & grabbing the early Modern Era wonders (UN, SETI, Internet).
I hope everybody will comment on these proposals (mind you - they are proposals ONLY! meant to incite a healthy debate). Let me start with one part of this strategy that may be surprising: waiving ALL the industrial wonders. Huh?
Why? Well... aside from everything else... I do not really believe we still have a shot at them, especially if we are to build the Sistine Chapel at the same time. Plus, I think we will serve our purpose better by letting others grab them (see Proposal VI. - keep the world divided).
Firs, let's rehash the wonder stuff again:
Sistine Chapel - 3 unhappy citizens less in every city with a cathedral. Likely, these 3 citizens generate ~5spt/~10gpt per city. Multiply that by at least 20 cities and 100 turns. That is a lot of shields and arrows. Plus, all cities with cathedrals and colosseums will be able to grow to pop 20 (means to work all their tiles) with just dyes and luxury slider at 10% - that is, even if we are targetted by a luxury embargo.
Universal Suffrage - lowers the WW in all cities. Now, I know this might be a cute wonder to grab, just in case we need to wage a prolonged defensive war... but frankly, if we get into WW-related troubles, we will be in much bigger troubles anyway (IIRC, WW comes mostly from losing units and cities, having enemy units in your territory and yours in theirs etc. - things we do not believe will be likely to happen, unless we're in real deep **** anyway). As our long-term strategy is to avoid wars as much as possible, I do not think these 800S would be well spent.
Hoover Dam - this one is real big. A free hydro plant in every city - for us, it'd be 27*240-800=5440S for free, assuming factories everywhere. As much as I'd love to have it, GS has much better chances to get it. Unless we get the tech GS started to research after going industrial for free from Vox, I do not see how we could catch up with GS - due to the 4-turn research limit, we can't gain more than 1-2t per every tech on them. Fortunately, GS will not be able to compete with our economy in terms of shield production even if they get Hoover Dam.
Theory of Evolution - only good to grab Hoover Dam safely. You spend ~11000 beakers on research & 600S on the wonder to get ~9000 beakers for free and the ability to spend 800S on Hoover Dam. This is usually a rather good deal - but I think that in this game, we will be able to make the "loss" up by our more potent economy, on condition it's GS getting the ToE+Hoover combo.
So, considering all this, I believe it would be best to let or even help (by providing them with Industrialization) GoW build Universal Suffrage (suits their warmonger trait nicely), and let GS build ToE+Hoover. We could use this to our great advantage: we might try striking a deal with GS, waiving the ToE+Hoover combo in their favour to allow trading techs with them - we do the middle part of the tree, they do the lower part. We'd ensure we get all the crucial military techs in time w/o having to rely on anyone else (like we recently had to rely on GoW with Military Tradition), preventing "windows of opportunity" for others to strike at us with superior forces.
I believe that if we decide to go this way, it would be best to approach GS before Voxes get their industrial tech - as GS would still fear us getting "their" tech, catching up, and actually outbuilding them to ToE (and automatically to Hoover, then, too - they do not know if and what kind of prebuilds we might have). If we wait for the Voxian tech and get a "wrong" one, they will know we are out of luck - and the likelihood of them striking a deal with us would be lower.
Eagerly looking forward to your comments...
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