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Crossroads: Where do we go from here?

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  • Crossroads: Where do we go from here?

    Fellow Legos,

    With me becoming an informal leader of this nation over the ages, I feel it's my duty to launch a major discussion about our global plans for the next age.

    So far in this game, we have been able to reach almost all our objectives, the only notable exception being the GS-Vox War (though, eventually, it didn't end up all that bad for us). In order to keep this stellar track record, we need to set ourselves new goals, so that we can actually reach them. May sound like a natural thing, but ATM, with our GA starting hopefully this coming turn, we will have pretty much reached the objectives we've set ourselves in this game so far.

    Simply "doing our best to win from now on" is no goal in the sense of what I'm talking about. We need to figure out how we are going to win, whose help and in what form we solicit, which team(s) we choose as our long-term partner(s) and what we do for them.

    By coincidence, I chatted with Master Zen (GoW) and Zayxus (ND) yesterday and got a PM from Beta (Vox) this morning. The chats and PM prompted me to start this thread, because I feel this is a crucial moment in our history.

    I believe we would all agree that Legoland has grown into an economic superpower unchallenged by anyone else in the world. Our military is not overwhelming yet, but that should change very soon, with our GA military production skyrocketing. However, we are not or not likely to win this game on our own or with just Voxes on our side, if we fortify ourselves in the Fortress Legoland and merely wait for others to come for us. We need to actively prevent that from happening in the first place.

    But how?

    Let's start with a quick summary on the other civs still in the game:

    Gathering Storm lost the war that was supposed to keep them in business, so to say. They gained no foothold on Bob and were left contained on Stormia, lacking a crucial strategic resource. Unless they team up with someone else and try their luck again, they are done. They know it. Considering they traded Physics to GoW (learnt that yesterday in the chat through ND not having Physics and GoW not interested in trading for it) and they have not tried to approach us with a proposal to cooperate, it seems quite obvious they are aligning themselves with GoW. I consider this very likely, also because of all their talk about how ND is to dominate Bob after The Great War. The GS embassy in Legopolis does not look like a gesture of good will to me either.

    Glory of War is one of the teams that won the war. If you look at the map of Bob carefully, you will realize that it's them gaining most. Not only they won the war, but by winning the war against RP/GS, they manage to peacefully weaken their neighbour and ex-ally, ND. As a payment for the war help, ND is going to transfer some of their cities to GoW. Zayxus was not specific yesterday (I asked him a direct question), but told me that if I imagined an ideal half of Bob from the GoW's point of view (considering where their FP is), I would pretty much have it. This leaves GoW with their well established core, adding much new territory, while stripping ND of most of their past core, forcing them to generally rebuild from scratch in the ex-RP lands. GoW is unlikely to win the game through peaceful building and they know it. So they will look for a target. Their recent tech trade with GS indicates they are not really looking towards Stormia - and it's understandable. GS with no saltpeter poses no threat to them, unlike us (right now) and ND (in the mid to long term view).

    One more thing worth noting is that Aggie was, after an extremely successfull war campaign, replaced by Master Zen. If you noticed Aggie's line in the public forum about using an avatar of Julius Caesar (who was assassinated by his fellow Romans)... someone I (and ND, for that matter - Zayxus mentioned that clearly yesterday) trusted very much was replaced by someone famous for his evil plans. I gather that Master Zen replacing Aggie may mean anything but further streghtening of GoW-ND bonds.

    Neu Demogyptica is sort of a GoW's complement. They were one of the victorious allies, but their victory came at a very high cost, great deal of it still to be paid. Due to the geography of Bob and the starting locations of ND & GoW, they now have to give up (some of) their most productive cities to GoW, moving southwards (and not being industrious, they'll have some hard time with developing all that new land). This leaves them very vulnerable to attacks from GoW or GS, at least in the short- to mid-term future. They would not be able to keep fighting for long, as they'd have nowhere to build troop replacements (fast enough). ND is fully aware of this. For some reason, they seem to trust us a lot - going as far as seriously considering gifting their cities to us in case things go wrong for them (Zayxus restated this yesterday). So, potential-wise, ND is a match for GoW in the long run, but hopelessly behind for the near future.

    Vox Controli is our little brother. Beta's PM indicates they've finished their first build-up phase (likely libraries) and are currently in their second one (marketplaces). They are pondering how to proceed after finishing Democracy. Whether to go full speed ahead along the builder route, relying upon our military to protect them, or slow down research-wise, building their own armed forces (which are now weaker than feeble). As their relatively fast research of Democracy shows, they can and hopefully will really be a worthy tech partner for us.

    Roleplayers hate us probably most of all other teams. They believe we betrayed them in The Great War and will likely do everything that inflicts losses or does harm to us. Fortunately, their ability to do harm to us is quite limited by the weakness of their economy. I am not sure if there is anything we can do to change their minds about us - and not sure about whether we need to, anyway.

    Now, with all this said, I would like to introduce one idea that has not been discussed yet in our forum. So far, we have been assuming that sooner or later, the remaining three strong teams (GS, GoW, ND) would unite against us in an attempt to deny us the victory that seems inevitable otherwise. Perhaps we should realize that locking ourselves up in this mindset is not necessary. Here is why:

    Look at the map and put yourself in GoW's shoes. You need more land to win. You might be able to get some from Lego (requires a naval invasion very soon and with our GA starting, looks like a suicide to try on your own), from GS (requires a naval invasion, gains land far from your core, with no FP to make it useful), and from ND. ND's land is close, requires no naval operations, the territory is quite well charted by your units fighting in The Great War... furthermore, you know how ND is conducting military operations (though they know how you conduct yours, too). Well...

    Now GS: you need an ally. An ally that will help you to overcome or, at least, tolerate you overcoming your greatest problem - the lack of territory. It's not Lego, as Lego is you biggest competitor that already made clear it would not tolerate more land for you. Leaves you with ND & GoW. ND is notoriously difficult to deal with + for some reason, you believe that it's ND to fear in the long run (this is one part I do not quite understand - I would expect GS to see the weakness of ND... perhaps GS do not know about the cities ND will have to give up in favour of GoW?). However, when it comes to GoW, the "biggest" reason against allying with them would be just personal grudges... and that you can certainly work around in order to prevent losing the game. If GoW attacks ND from the North and GS from the Southeast in the foreseeable future, ND will fall fast - and GoW with GS split their lands, becoming our equals or even more than that.

    At the same time you probably realize that targetting Lego is too difficult because of several reasons. You feel that Lego would be able to successfully defend against two opponents (say, GS+GoW) hampered by having to transport troops overseas. So you either try to get all three powers to ally against Lego, or look for another, indirect way of taking upon the current leader of the game.

    ND is in a precarious position. As described elsewhere, they are more or less at the mercy of GoW (and, GS). After giving up their former core (or a major part of it), they will need at least ~100 turns to rebuild their core and get back to full speed economy-wise. Until then, they need to fear almost everybody... or not? GoW is their closest neighbour, in need of more land to win the game. Then the leader/emperor change... GS is in dire need of more land and it was only Lego and GoW preventing the fall of ND in the recent war. Lego, on the other hand, does not need more land to win and need not fear ND even if ND grows back to strength. The only possible thing Lego might envy would be luxes - and if we trade luxes to them, then it's all ok. Out of all other teams, Lego would seem to be the least threat (or, I would think so if being in ND's shoes).

    So, here comes the idea I was pondering about for the last few days: let's align ourselves with ND. Fully. Help them massively tech-wise, feed them with great, lopsided deals. Be ready to send or sell them workers to work as slaves, or be added as quick pop points to their cities (which would work well for us in case we get into a war against ND later on, as these citizens would be concerned about fighting their homeland). Discuss & possibly even sign a grand treaty of non-aggression, cooperation, and perhaps even mutual assistance. Let's do all we can to draw them to us, preventing them from staying with GoW or drifting into a grand anti-Lego alliance. If we succeed and break that alliance before it is even created, then we are fine for the next age. If GoW & GS attacks us, we would be able to handle them. Only a total gang-up could break our neck. By the time ND no longer needs our backing and starts having other thoughts, we will be building spaceship parts.

    My chat with Zayxus, although completely informal and non-binding, indicated ND would be willing, maybe even happy, to jump in our bed.

    OTOH, my much shorter chat with MZ was a bit less cordial. No problems, but when I asked about trading for Military Tradition, he responded rather vaguely - and it was only after I told him plainly that if they do not agree to trade it before we finish Physics, we would go for the tech ourselves (which, btw, I believe we really should) he started to sound easier. I do not say GoW mean harm, but they certainly sound to be at a greater distance from us now.

    Now, all this is mostly brainstorming, even if quite thoroughly thought out. I would very much appreciate your thoughts on this issue. If we decide to move in one direction or another, we should act fast. Keep in mind our own decision regarding the involvement in The Great War took about 2-3 turns - and afterwards, there was no turning back. Let's stay ahead of others on the diplo front.

  • #2
    Very well put V and an excellent analysis of the current situation. I won't pick points or argue with you because I haven't been in contact with other teams recently and so I can't make any judgements about that.

    You are right however that we have some decisions to be made concerning the way forward. One can only assume that Vox are with us but we need to remember to keep them happy as well. If they so decided they could become our most vulnerable point....

    As for the other teams I see them all as a threat both long term and short term. I wouldn't discount the immediate threat from both GOW and GS. We need to remember that this is a game, and that the players on both those teams are experienced stategic players. I would imagine that they have plans for an invasion of Legos, they wouldn't be playing the game properly if they didnt...

    So in essence it comes down to us picking our side before its picked for us and in this I'm inclined to agree. I see no point in aligning with GS or GOW as they are already strong and a major part of the alliance would be to assist them in gaining more land at the expense of ND (most likely). If we align with ND, we can help them get back to strength quicker, we secure Bob to a certain extent, and we reduce the chances of ND being involved in an invasion of Legos, at least while they are still weaker than GOW/GS.

    ND seem the obvious choice but any alliance must come secondary to the defence of Legos, and of Vox. We must be committed to defending them as well as ourselves for purely strategic purposes if nothing else.

    My suggestion is that we open negociations with ND about a mutual assistance package. Perhaps we give them tech, workers, military assistance (based on defence) and in exchange we get luxuries and an eventual strong ally. Perhaps we could even request a couple of small cities for Vox if we wanted to be cheeky

    So in essence I'm in favour of striking up a partnership with ND. At the very least it will inject a bit more interest into the game
    Si tacuisses, philosophus mansisses

    Comment


    • #3
      Divide and conquer: we must divide the world to prevent a ND+GoW+GS grand alliance, simple as that.

      ND as our medium-term ally sounds logical to me. Every possible scenario/argument points to this conclusion.
      To what has been said already, I'd add only that:
      - we will never help GS unless GoW and ND attacked them, because they seem to be our greatest rival, should they be able to expand and establish a second core
      - ND has something to offer us in return: luxuries. GoW has nothing to offer us, except their friendship. But why would they help us even more, when we are so close to win the game?
      - ND seems more trustworthy than GoW. Probably they are not dying to help us either, but it seems that they've reached to the same conclusion: that a GoW+GS danger is more imminent than Lego's space launch So, even if in the long term they surely will try to win, the middle-term agenda is more pressing for them. This just a "scarlett-ish": "I will think about it tomorow" on their part.

      What I fear is a GoW+GS attack against ND in the near future (immediately after the discovery of cavalry: cavalries against muskets! and before railroad), probably combined with a surprise landing on Legos, keeping us busy at home to prevent us defending ND. This attack may have been planned/decided already, but us entering our GA already was not part of it, that's for sure. If they do not attack within the next 10 turns, we will build a strong enough army to be able to defend our homeland and help ND.

      I know this is rather easy because of our GA, but we must prepare a sizeable amount of money for a possible mass-upgrade of our knights.
      Last edited by Tiberius; February 13, 2004, 10:18.
      "The only way to avoid being miserable is not to have enough leisure to wonder whether you are happy or not. "
      --George Bernard Shaw
      A fast word about oral contraception. I asked a girl to go to bed with me and she said "no".
      --Woody Allen

      Comment


      • #4
        I would agree that helping ND is the best course of action. After ND loses their core cities, rebuilding their economy will help stabilize Bob. So any help we can provide to rebuild their economy is great.

        I guess the risk is that ND will bite the hand that feeds them. We work to quickly rebuild ND, but then the ND-GoW-GS alliance attacks us. For ND, this would be the best "strategic" course of action although it lacks honor. Assuming their will be (or is) a ND-GoW-GS alliance, we drain our resources and strengthen our enemies.

        I guess the best course of action is to help ND; taking the risk that they will lot "bite our hand". But as Redstar stated, all this must come second to building our defenses. We must continue with our defense plans, and ensure we have a cash reserve for upgrades and quick-builds.

        I don't think I can support any military presence on Bob. If in the near future, GS and GoW were to align against ND then I would reconsider. But for now, let's keep the boys home.

        I have more thoughts, but work is calling.

        Comment


        • #5
          I think a good first step right now might be to offer MPPs to both GoW and ND. Make them purely defensive (i.e., if they start a war, we're not helping), and add a clause not to land on either's continent unless requested. Gauging how each team reacts to the offers will be a good indicator of how relations may be going. Oh, and make sure to add a NAP too so we don't get any Togas-y loopholes.
          I make movies. Come check 'em out.

          Comment


          • #6
            GoW-GS vs. ND is a very plausible interpretation; good thinking Vondrack. However, consider another:

            ND is planning to attack GoW just as we've been theorizing GoW plans to attack ND. After all, having such a militarily powerful neighbor on your doorstep while attempting to build is a difficult balance. And having all of (or most of; see below) Bob would be quite a coup, and their current palace location could be better fit in to the scheme of things.

            This is basically what GS suspects is coming, and why they are shoring up GoW. However, let's also consider that GS and ND may be planning together, and this is a feint. No, GoW's land doesn't hold much interest for GS; but some of it might for RP.

            And the currently abandoned land in the SE of Bob would most definitely be of interest to GS; and GS could get it as part of an alliance with ND as easily as they could get it as part of an alliance with GoW (unless ND has already built an FP in the south, but I would imagine they are just beginning). And if ND is planning this, they've definitely done a good job of stalling their gifting of cities so far; and depending on when they attack, they may be trying to dely it until the Ansars cross the border and it becomes a moot point. And until they do gift those cities, their economy is still about as strong as it was before the war.

            And if I was planning such an offensive, I'd certainly try to get Lego on my good side and to lift myself up past GoW in their eyes; I wouldn't want Lego giving Gow Nationalism or Steam Power in the middle of the war like when we gave both of them Gunpowder in the middle of the last war.

            I don't mean to say that this is definitely what is happening, just as I am not saying GoW+GS vs. ND is definitely what is happening. But it is possible, and I don't think we can yet know which of the various scenarios is the real one. So, I would not stack our chips on any one side of the possible Bob war until it comes. We have no idea if there will be an attack; it could be both GoW and ND are sincere. They certainly both have a lot of land in which to build in, though GoW is waiting for that to expand to an equal half. And even if someone does mark themselves the aggressor, they may find they've overestimated their chances and are losing, in which case we might want to come in on their side regardless of their starting it.

            In short, I would be cautious. Let's be friendly with everybody - perhaps even consider signing defensive MPPs with all three parties - but let's not set ourselves up as supporting someone whose future position is currently uncertain (at least, as far as we can ascertain).

            Comment


            • #7
              Kloreep, even if theoretically it's possible what you are describing here, I think the chances are very slim.
              If ND would plan an attack on GoW, they couldn't do it without getting GS on their side. Their eastern flank would be completely exposed to a GS attack. On the other hand, GS would not enter in such an alliance without getting in return land on southern Bob. IMHO ND would never accept that. So a ND+GS against GoW is very-very unlikely in my opinion.

              I would give better chances for ND+GoW alliance against GS. However, they both probably realize that they wouldn't be able to defeat GS at home, with their GAs over and without our help (we made it clear we wouldn't help an invasion against GS). Besides, why would ND attack GS? They have plenty of good land to expend to, they don't need Stormia. No, very unlikely again for the near-medium future.

              It is true that GS+GoW against ND is also something that could or could not happen. However, we need an ally. We can't just be friendly with everyone, because we are too far ahead and sooner or later they will plot against us. We must get one of them in our boat, before they would have a chance to form a BIG3 alliance against us. So, the question is, who we pick?

              No one will happily ally with us, because we are No.1. So we need someone who needs us. Who needs us most at this moment? Apparently ND. Their most obvious policy would be to develop their new lands, while being protected by us. They have so much work to do to become a superpower, that we can safely help them without fearing ND as a competitor to our supremacy, for a long time from now on. We would help them only until they are building and not fighting. While they are building, they are not dangereous for us. IMO they are still the most logical medium-term ally we could pick.

              Helping ND we:
              - keep them away from a grand anti-Lego alliance
              - keep a balance on Bob
              - put pressure on GS and GoW
              Last edited by Tiberius; February 14, 2004, 04:20.
              "The only way to avoid being miserable is not to have enough leisure to wonder whether you are happy or not. "
              --George Bernard Shaw
              A fast word about oral contraception. I asked a girl to go to bed with me and she said "no".
              --Woody Allen

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by Tiberius
                Kloreep, even if theoretically it's possible what you are describing here, I think the chances are very slim.
                If ND would plan an attack on GoW, they couldn't do it without getting GS on their side. Their eastern flank would be completely exposed to a GS attack. On the other hand, GS would not enter in such an alliance without getting in return land on southern Bob. IMHO ND would never accept that. So a ND+GS against GoW is very-very unlikely in my opinion.
                I disagree here. You're right, ND attacking GoW on its own would be potentially suicidal if GS got involved; but I don't see it as very very unlikely that GS would agree to ally with ND, for I don't see why ND would have any more of a problem with offering GS that southeast segment of Bob than GoW would. True, it's currently ND's expansion room, but if ND takes GoW's land, they won't need it so much. Whether GoW swallows ND or ND swallows GoW, it's the same occupied territory, and I think the unsettled southeast could be given in return just as easily by either of them.

                Originally posted by Tiberius
                I would give better chances for ND+GoW alliance against GS. However, they both probably realize that they wouldn't be able to defeat GS at home, with their GAs over and without our help (we made it clear we wouldn't help an invasion against GS). Besides, why would ND attack GS? They have plenty of good land to expend to, they don't need Stormia. No, very unlikely again for the near-medium future.
                I'm skeptical of this possibility as well. There is little logical reason to attack GS, with Stormia unconnected by land and with all four anti-corruption cores being possible to center on Bob.

                Originally posted by Tiberius
                It is true that GS+GoW against ND is also something that could or could not happen. However, we need an ally. We can't just be friendly with everyone, because we are too far ahead and sooner or later they will plot against us. We must get one of them in our boat, before they would have a chance to form a BIG3 alliance against us. So, the question is, who we pick?

                No one will happily ally with us, because we are No.1. So we need someone who needs us. Who needs us most at this moment? Apparently ND. Their most obvious policy would be to develop their new lands, while being protected by us. They have so much work to do to become a superpower, that we can safely help them without fearing ND as a competitor to our supremacy, for a long time from now on. We would help them only until they are building and not fighting. While they are building, they are not dangereous for us. IMO they are still the most logical medium-term ally we could pick.

                Helping ND we:
                - keep them away from a grand anti-Lego alliance
                - keep a balance on Bob
                - put pressure on GS and GoW
                Good point; if we don't get close enough to ND we probably could lose them completely.

                I would still like to see more city handovers to GoW, but ND probably is the best ally. I still wouldn't rule out defensive MPPs with the other two, however.

                Comment


                • #9
                  I stand by the idea that defensive MPPs with GoW and ND are the way to begin. Not with GS, as that would just open up too many problems in the long run, most likely...
                  I make movies. Come check 'em out.

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                  • #10
                    Lots of good points raised by everybody!

                    I am really happy to see that we all are still here and interested in the affairs of state. Makes me feel much better about the everyday routine where it's only me doing most of the posting - this way I feel you do not post (but apparently read everything carefully ) that often because you do not feel the need to and not because your interest in the game would be gone.

                    I should finally have a couple of spare hours to spend on this later today (finishing a very important trade agreement in my RL... buying a lot for my own house!). I will add my comments and perhaps propose what we should start with.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Kloreep

                      I would still like to see more city handovers to GoW,
                      Me too. That's why I was imagining this cooperation to be gradual. The more they get closer to us and the more peaceful they seem (gifting more cities to GoW, etc) the more we would help them. At first we would offer them some good trades, then in the next phase we would send workers to help develop the southern lands, etc. Something like this, gradual, always modelling our help based on current or foreseeable events.
                      "The only way to avoid being miserable is not to have enough leisure to wonder whether you are happy or not. "
                      --George Bernard Shaw
                      A fast word about oral contraception. I asked a girl to go to bed with me and she said "no".
                      --Woody Allen

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        What about liberating the former kingdom of Voxtavia?

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