Has the Bob alliance gotten too powerful?

[Sharpe]

Has the Bob alliance gotten too powerful?

GoW has nearly as many cities as GS

ND controls most of the Bob continent including most of its luxuries and its strategic resources.

The combined GoW and ND military just overwhelmed what appears to be the main GS force in the south with less losses than GS.

The GS homeland of Stormia has no saltpeter on it. GoW's only realistic source is on Little Bob, but currently outside of their borders - while ND has plenty of saltpeter - more than us and a little easier to get to than us currently.

With GS's lack of saltpeter, it is VERY likely that the Bob civs will follow up their now seemingly inevitable victory on Bob with an invasion of Stormia - which I suspect that we don't want as it would give too much power to the Bob civs.

I think that we need to discuss the current status of the alliance and whether we need to make any significant changes.

Currently we are not getting very much out of this alliance IMHO. The main benefit that we are getting is that GoW, ND and GS are losing units while we are gaining more units - thus closing what was a significant military gap (though GS is still strong compared to us admittedly).

We are trading GoW and ND a dye each and receiving 2 luxuries from ND and one luxury from GoW.

On the other hand we just gave gunpowder to both GoW and ND - with GoW paying nearly nothing for it (as we allowed them to cut off paying us) and with both of them only paying 2/3 of the gold deficit that we were incurring per turn due to our accelerated research of gunpowder.

I think that the Bob alliance is now even more of a threat to us than GS ever was in terms of power or potential power and that we need to consider what to do about it.

Some possibilities:
1) Talk to GoW mentioning that we are worried that ND is getting too strong and wondering what to do about it (i.e. trying to get GoW to join with us against ND)
2) Continue to accumulate forces on Bob and then strike against one of GoW or ND
3) Attack now - if GoW refuses to join us, we land on Little Bob and cut off their potential attack zone against us (and their native supply of saltpeter)
4) Continue our stealth situation but start talking with GS and eventually aligning with them
5) Continue as is - no changes

[vondrack]

OK, my answer is simple: 5.

Reasoning?

1) Goal not yet achieved. The clearly defined goal of the Lego+ND+GoW alliance has from the day 1 been driving RP & GS off Bob. This goal has not yet been achieved - we are making good progress towards it, but the end is nowhere near. The fact that GS has no saltpeter means only one thing: they will not be able to conquer Bob, as their knights will be neutralized by Bobian muskets. The other way round - it's still (until Military Tradition - and that's maybe 30-40 turns away) ansars & riders against pikes. I am now fairly confident the war will end with the defeat of GS/RP on Bob, but it will still take some time.

2) Honour. We gave our word to GoW & ND. We made it very clear we would help them to get rid of GS and not oppose the destruction of RPers (but we also made it very clear we'd NEVER support any invasion of Stormia - which was acknowledged). Betraying them in any way until this goal is achieved is, IMO, dishonourable.

3) No threat from ND/GoW as long as kept off Stormia. I do not feel we should be afraid of our allies. They are using their GA up on a major war - while we will conveniently use ours to mostly boost our infrastructure, getting even further ahead in research. Their GA Mfg. Goods is about equal to our normal Mfg. Goods... etc. As mentioned elsewhere, I actually do not believe ND would backstab GoW - but this is just my personal opinion based upon my personal observations, so it's mostly irrelevant here. What is relevant, though, is that they both know very well that the second they break our alliance (in any way), they lose our support and GS acquires saltpeter. Plus, they have a problem with LEF conveniently located in the heart of their homelands...

So - to make the long story short. As long as there is no sign of an invasion on Stormia, do nothing and proceed as planned. Keep building up LEF - as that's one of the things that makes US the team that pulls the ropes (the other being our research capacity and the fact that we have excess saltpeter we can trade to GS at any time).

And to comment on Steve's points (I understand the points were mentioned for the sake of completeness):

ad 1) do not try that - they trust each other much more than they trust us, since their allaince is a very old one. By trying to instigate one against the other, we would only discredit ourselves.

ad 2) agreed with the build-up part, fiercely opposed to the strike-hard part. Unless we are provoked and LEF all of a sudden happens to be in a hostile territory, I'd quit my Lego membership the very second it would be decided to backstab in a way like that.

ad 3) totally unacceptable - it would be a treachery beyond any imagination; see above

ad 4) even though I cannot rule out the possibility of ending up on the same boat with GS one day (if the two Bobian powers go amok), at this moment, we are still allied with GoW & ND - any actions agains them would be treacherous, which I could not agree with.

ad 5) my choice

[Sharpe]

Response to Vondrack's post:

1) Agreed - RP must be destroyed before we should consider aligning with GS because a restored RP would be firmly in GS's camp - not good for us either. We should strongly encourage our current allies to finish off RP (especially with their newfound catapult strength).

2) Honour - agreed for the most part except don't forget that our allies are self-admitted "warmongers" and have attacked everyone else in the game - and broken agreements with a lot of civs too - they have little honour left themselves... and thus lower themselves in my eyes.

3) NO, I think that you are wrong here - Bob is as big as the other landmasses COMBINED - and as the Bob alliance acts in conjunction as though they were one civ, they are a incredibly major threat (especially with all of those luxuries and strategic resources). The longer they have complete control of Bob, the far worse it is for us (especially try to invade Bob when they have railroads in place ) Vondrack, you considered GS a major threat due to their economic output compared to us - well imagine how strong the Bob civs will be compared to us.

Personally I think that something close to #4 is our best strategy - keep aligned with ND and GoW for now, build up our military and be prepared to move against them when convenient.

#5 is unacceptable IMHO as we need to plan beyond the RP war and make preparations now for it - GoW and ND would be stupid not to invade Stormia with one civ not having access to any saltpeter - sure they will wait until they get Cavalry before doing it - us giving GS saltpeter when they invade would be equivalent to closing the barn door after the horses have left the building - in other words - probably too late...

[vondrack]

Originally posted by Sharpe
2) Honour - agreed for the most part except don't forget that our allies are self-admitted "warmongers" and have attacked everyone else in the game - and broken agreements with a lot of civs too - they have little honour left themselves... and thus lower themselves in my eyes.

That may or may not be true, but it has nothing to do with OUR honour. The fact that someone we are dealing with may have been less than honorable with others (which is not exactly the case with ND, though - they've played in a very honorable way so far) does not justify our lowering to the same level. And that is not to say that I would consider GoW treacherous - I personally do not find their deeds overly treacherous. Their attack at RP was IMHO justified. Their attack at GS was IMHO justified (in both cases). The only thing I am not 100% sure is the Lux story - but if they had aligned with ND first, then attacking Luxes was not treacherous either...

Originally posted by Sharpe
3) NO, you are wrong here - Bob is as big as the other landmasses COMBINED - and as the Bob alliance acts in conjunction as though they were one civ, they are a incredibly major threat (especially with all of those luxuries and strategic resources). The longer they have complete control of Bob, the far worse it is for us (especially try to invade Bob when they have railroads in place ) Vondrack, you considered GS a major threat due to their economic output compared to us - well imagine how strong the Bob civs will be compared to us.

Agreed about Bob being about the same size as Legos and Stormia combined. BUT - there are two teams on Bob, not one... so for the purpose of comparing potential and power, you need to divide Bob by two (and that is what ND & GoW plan to do). What you get (each half) is equal in size to Legos Major - that's why we can still make the best use of the fact that we have spent the whole game building, unlike others that have spent it mostly fighting. We are far ahead of them in terms of developed tiles, infrastructure, and culture (just look at how the culture graph looks... we are still gaining compared to even the religious Arabs). And we still have our GA in reserve. Trust me, if ND & GoW divide Bob among themselves in a fair way (and I believe they will), leaving GS to keep Stormia, Lego will win the game without waging war.

Of course, there are conditions that may force us to wage war (possibly against one or both of our current allies):

a) GoW and ND turn against each other -> side with the underdog
b) GoW and ND start losing the war against GS -> fight GS directly
c) GoW and ND (plan to) invade Stormia -> side with GS

This is all theoretically possible. But, IMHO, unlikely.

Originally posted by Sharpe
Personally I think that something close to #4 is our best strategy - keep aligned with ND and GoW for now, build up our military and be prepared to move against them when convenient.

I do not agree with the "when convenient" part - would replace it with "if necessary". But then... it essentially becomes #5, does it not?

Originally posted by Sharpe
#5 is unacceptable IMHO - GoW and ND would be stupid not to invade Stormia with one civ not having access to any saltpeter - sure they will wait until they get Cavalry before doing it - us giving GS saltpeter when they invade would be equivalent to closing the barn door after the horses have left the building - in other words - probably too late...

GoW and ND would be stupid to invade, not to not invade. They would waste even more resources on a very costly overseas war, while we would happily build and build... getting a whole era ahead of them (technologically). And what would they do in the end if they wiped out GS, but would be facing our tanks with their riflemen?

I agree that saltpeter alone could be too little. But throw in some money, too, and you have insta muskets everywhere on Stormia. Keep in mind GS has Sun Tzu - they can upgrade everything in a single turn, if having the resource and money enough. Perhaps intentionally keeping a gold reserve for an unexpected case like this might be a worthwhile idea long-term...

Also... I am less than sure that GoW & ND will receive Military Tradition from us under the current alliance. It is many many turns into the future - I assume the war will be over by the time we discover it. And... all our support was strictly bound to the war, not extended post-war. We have never agreed to share everything with our allies forever. So, unless there is a real need, they will not get Military Tradition from us. And if there IS a real need (read: GS is still on Bob, strong and dangerous), then there will be no possibility of an invasion on Stormia...

Considering the circumstances, I will agree that we have no need to rush to Military Tradition now - letting the war end before getting there would be preferrable (and is quite possible, I believe). Let's give ND & GoW time enough to clean up Bob BEFORE the world (us) gets to Military Tradition. Carefully prepare our GA, use them to leap forward and leave everyone else behind once forever.

[Tiberius]

I agree with Vondrack and his points; there isn't necesarry to repeat everything he said so far.

What I would like to add:

It is true that Bob is big, but first of all the war is not over yet, and GoW+ND don't own the whole Bob. ND is now weak compared to us, while GS is strong. Think about it.

Then, even if the Bob alliance would win the war soon, they will have to split Bob between themself. GoW may have lots of cities, but they are very inneficiently placed. The reorganization of Bob will be a long and difficult process, which should be done by two teams who will have finished their golden ages by then. Once the war is over, they will fall behind in tech, unless we help them.

Beyond the fact that it'd be dishonest to betray them, I don't see any reason why would we suddenly help GS. They are still very strong, their economy is still No.1, and even if they would lose the war on Bob, invading Stromia won't be an easy task.

IMHO all we have to do right now is take the alliance with Bob a little easier, help them maybe with less fervor and keep a more neutral position. On a scale from 0 to 10 (0=helping Bob, 10=helping GS) we are somewhere at aprox. 2, correct? We help Bob, but we don't hurt GS directly. Let's slip this one to the right, and make it a 3. Still helping Bob, but not so strongly. Should Bob gain even more in power, we will modify our position accordingly.

All we have to do is continuing building our infrastructure, prepare for our GA and build up the military.

To be more precise, in Sharpe's classification, I'm totally against the 1, 2 and 3 points. 4 is still a bit to premature IMHO, so my vote for for 5, with the above considerations.

[Tiberius]

Re: Has the Bob alliance gotten too powerful?

Originally posted by Sharpe
Currently we are not getting very much out of this alliance IMHO.

Wrong. The benefit of this alliance is exactly what we are looking for: the weakening of GS. So far this worked perfectly.

1) Talk to GoW mentioning that we are worried that ND is getting too strong and wondering what to do about it (i.e. trying to get GoW to join with us against ND)
2) Continue to accumulate forces on Bob and then strike against one of GoW or ND
3) Attack now - if GoW refuses to join us, we land on Little Bob and cut off their potential attack zone against us (and their native supply of saltpeter)

Reading these once again, thinking about them, well, I had to say this:

I don't know Sharpe if you're proposing these points only for the sake of discussion, but this is not for the first time when you are proposing completely dishonorable, low, backstabbing strategies, and I feel very unconfortable with this. We may not talk so much about honor like GS, but I still like to play fair. I'm not saying that a machiavellian twist isn't necessary sometimes, but from this to playing dirty is a very long way that I will never follow.

Just my 2 cents.

[Sharpe]

I don't know Sharpe if you're proposing these points only for the sake of discussion, but this is not for the first time when you are proposing completely dishonorable, low, backstabbing strategies, and I feel very unconfortable with this. We may not talk so much about honor like GS, but I still like to play fair. I'm not saying that a machiavellian twist isn't necessary sometimes, but from this to playing dirty is a very long way that I will never follow.

I post all options for discussion - even those that I wouldn't even consider doing.

For instance, I do not favor attacking now - we would be taking advantage of GoW and ND's invitation onto Bob - and I intensely dislike backstabbing of that sort (believe me I have suffered that and more in Civ 2 MP play enough).

If we do end up disputing with the Bob allies, I would request a safe haven path or area where we can safely evacuate our troops if we decided to withdraw from the alliance.

As for fairness, I operate by the axiom - "Do onto others as they do to you" - if they backstab me, I feel less repulsion from doing the same to them at a later date. If they are good to me, then I try to be good to them.

GoW has been a good ally with us - ND less so as they haven't done much for us in the game (in fact we went centuries between even chatting with them). That being said - both have declared war and attacked every civ in the game except us and each other - I doubt that trend will change and we need to be prepared for it and deal with it when it comes.

[redstar1]

Sharpe, you make a very very good point....

The bulk of all offensive units we possess are going to be sitting effectively in enemy territory. Whats to stop GOW blocking them in? Do we have a plan for removing them?

I'm all for what we are doing but after the military victory and the possibility that we have passed the peak of this war and our objectives may become reality, then what do we do?

[Kloreep]

I agree 1, 2, and 3 are all out as dishonorable. I vote for 4.7; let's keep playing as we have, but we should start considering what to do if GS is driven off Bob, as currently seems likely. Once that happens, there's a chance Stormia will be invaded; as such, I'd like to trade them Invention once they're off Bob for good. That will make it quicker if we need to sell them Gunpowder + Saltpeter should they be invaded. What were the limitations on our getting Invention, if any?

Also, another thing to consider is that RP may not be killable. Vox's former Estonian core looks pretty corrupt to me; I'm sure GS would like having their own Vox, and the RP-GS alliance certainly doesn't mind trading cities around.

And, I would like to keep good relations with GoW and ND after the war. How should we do this? We can continue a Dye for lux trade with both of them, and we might consider purchasing a third lux from one of them depending on our happiness situation and on what GS can sell us. We might also be able to keep up some the tech trading, though MT will be worthless, and I wonder how much spare commerce they'll have.

Originally posted by redstar1
Sharpe, you make a very very good point....

The bulk of all offensive units we possess are going to be sitting effectively in enemy territory. Whats to stop GOW blocking them in? Do we have a plan for removing them?

Actually, I really like having our Knights in ND territory. If it comes down to trying to convince them to stay off Stormia, we have a bargaining chip. Not one I'd consider using as it would be dishonorably breaking our alliance, but I'd be fine if ND saw it as implied.

[vondrack]

Agreed with Kloreep almost 100% (re: 4.7, bargaining chip, good post-war relations). Not sure about buying luxes for gold - we will probably not need them, having Bach's...

As for Invention - no worries, I bet GS will get it on their own pretty soon, they did make it clear they needed to go for this tech. We told them we got it with an eternal NDA (resale subject to GoW approval).