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What would we be trying to achieve if we were in Vox's position here?
I'm a bit of a novice at MP civ, but at a rought estimate, if I wanted to conquer most/all of the GS cities, I'd want an army of around 40 immortals, in two stacks of 20 or so, aiming for the big cities first. With only around 20 immortals total I'd be looking just to do a bit of razing and pillaging, to prune GS back before they got to feudalism (too late) and chivalry (at which point immortals become a knight training regime). Since most of the useful defense is going to come from war chariots, GS are always going to come out better in a war of attrition (30 shields for an immortal, 10 for a WC, and a WC attacking an immortal is an even fight). So I'd want a short war to destroy one big town or a few small ones, and make peace while I still had the initiative, at which point both sides get building units for the rematch in about 20 turns.
They're going to realise pretty quickly (if they haven't already) that their forces, as visibly to us, aren't enough to take and hold a town. With luck from the RNG they have enough to raze a town, although they are only threatening Monsoon and Arashi at the moment. They can't go pillaging without fast movers, since the trade off of losing using just to damage tiles (which can be replaced in 5 turns by an industrious worker) isn't worth it.
So they have to hope that they can significantly dent our production base before we can overwhelm their production, by razing vital towns.
Getting a big force onto the mountains near Hurricane was never going to be possible in secret, so the attack would have to come from D'ville (no surprise there), and aim to raze two or three of the western cities. From the current position of Vox troops it can be seen that Monsoon is unguarded, while Arashi has some kind of garrison. I'm pretty sure that I'd find it hard to resist the temptation to send a few troops that way, even if it is a stupid thing to do, but lets see how impulsive Vox really are.
Since this isn't intended to be a war of conquest (unless Vox have badly underestimated how many troops they need, and don't know which are the good targets to attack (or are under the delusion what WCs can't attack units on mountains)) they will probably give up when they take about 50% casualties, dead or seriously injured. That's basically 6 immortals from their main stacks (assuming they don't divert anything to Hurricane). Which, assuming they go for Arashi, means the battle for Arashi 9 could be enough to make them give up and go home, or at least go for a ceasefire to rebuild and heal damaged troops. (And a ceasefire works in our favour with our higher production base).
The alternative explanation is that this is a desperation gambit. Having been pushed off Bob, and suspecting that they are going to get crushed once we get to chivalry, they have mustered what forces they can in the short window of opportunity they had, and will see how it goes because they didn't really have any choice long-term. In which case they'll be trying to keep our cities if they take them, since if they can't, they'd be doomed anyway.
From what I've seen so far, I'd guess that they are trying an ill-advised bit of pruning, which is mainly going to help everyone but them and us. But given the fact that with Bob off limits (for now) there is only this island to settle on, and the longer they leave it, the harder it becomes for them, I don't really think they needed too much outside prodding to get into this war.
I'm a bit of a novice at MP civ, but at a rought estimate, if I wanted to conquer most/all of the GS cities, I'd want an army of around 40 immortals, in two stacks of 20 or so, aiming for the big cities first. With only around 20 immortals total I'd be looking just to do a bit of razing and pillaging, to prune GS back before they got to feudalism (too late) and chivalry (at which point immortals become a knight training regime). Since most of the useful defense is going to come from war chariots, GS are always going to come out better in a war of attrition (30 shields for an immortal, 10 for a WC, and a WC attacking an immortal is an even fight). So I'd want a short war to destroy one big town or a few small ones, and make peace while I still had the initiative, at which point both sides get building units for the rematch in about 20 turns.
They're going to realise pretty quickly (if they haven't already) that their forces, as visibly to us, aren't enough to take and hold a town. With luck from the RNG they have enough to raze a town, although they are only threatening Monsoon and Arashi at the moment. They can't go pillaging without fast movers, since the trade off of losing using just to damage tiles (which can be replaced in 5 turns by an industrious worker) isn't worth it.
So they have to hope that they can significantly dent our production base before we can overwhelm their production, by razing vital towns.
Getting a big force onto the mountains near Hurricane was never going to be possible in secret, so the attack would have to come from D'ville (no surprise there), and aim to raze two or three of the western cities. From the current position of Vox troops it can be seen that Monsoon is unguarded, while Arashi has some kind of garrison. I'm pretty sure that I'd find it hard to resist the temptation to send a few troops that way, even if it is a stupid thing to do, but lets see how impulsive Vox really are.
Since this isn't intended to be a war of conquest (unless Vox have badly underestimated how many troops they need, and don't know which are the good targets to attack (or are under the delusion what WCs can't attack units on mountains)) they will probably give up when they take about 50% casualties, dead or seriously injured. That's basically 6 immortals from their main stacks (assuming they don't divert anything to Hurricane). Which, assuming they go for Arashi, means the battle for Arashi 9 could be enough to make them give up and go home, or at least go for a ceasefire to rebuild and heal damaged troops. (And a ceasefire works in our favour with our higher production base).
The alternative explanation is that this is a desperation gambit. Having been pushed off Bob, and suspecting that they are going to get crushed once we get to chivalry, they have mustered what forces they can in the short window of opportunity they had, and will see how it goes because they didn't really have any choice long-term. In which case they'll be trying to keep our cities if they take them, since if they can't, they'd be doomed anyway.
From what I've seen so far, I'd guess that they are trying an ill-advised bit of pruning, which is mainly going to help everyone but them and us. But given the fact that with Bob off limits (for now) there is only this island to settle on, and the longer they leave it, the harder it becomes for them, I don't really think they needed too much outside prodding to get into this war.
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