Turn 96, 650 BC

[Arrian]

If Vox fortifies about three units on A9 and sends the rest around to our east, we'll have a hard time because the only way we can attack them directly is across a river

That's EXACTLY what I'm worried about. Aeson, that's why I want to hold A9.

But I know that holding off 11 Immortals ain't gonna be easy. If I *knew* they'd come for Arashi, I'd agree wholeheartedly that we should hole up there.

But I don't know that. In fact, them marching right up to Arashi and attacking would be an EXTREMELY stupid thing to do. I would stick 2 spearmen & an immortal or two up on A9 and move along to a juicier, softer target.

-Arrian

[nbarclay]

Okay, I went ahead and played it rushing the cat but not doing anything otherwise before the movement part of the turn starts.

There are eleven immortals (seven vet and four regular) on Arashi 8 with a regular spearman, and and one vet and two regulars with a regular spearman at Arashi 8-7.

Forces around Hurricane are as expected: two immortals closer to us and one a tile farther away.

[Aeson]

I thought they would get that 3rd into the stack with the other 2 near Hurricane. This is a very big break for us, the odds that they can just plow through Hurricane 8 drop significantly, and even i nthe best case they will only have 2 Immortals to attack instead of 3.

They must be going for more troops... we should get their next drop with our 2 galleys if they try for a drop near Hurricane eh?

-------------------

As for Arashi 9, we can still beat Vox wherever they are going even without it. The extra movement would be nice, but it doesn't matter if we lose all our units trying to keep that route open. If they do leave a couple units behind their main stack... GREAT! we want to split them up as much as possible.

And they may just try to hit Arashi. They know we have 2 Pikes (they saw 2 spears), 2 Swords, and a couple of Warriors (they can figure out we'll upgrade them). They don't know where they are, and our 'retreat' from Arashi 9 might make them think we are weak.

If we try to hold Arashi 9 this turn, we are risking more than by pulling back. If it pays off, it pays off huge. If it doesn't, it hurts us almost just as bad as a victory would help.

The longer this plays out, the better our chances when the showdown comes. There is a chance that they beat us badly enough at Arashi 9 that we can't hold Arashi and Tempest/Monsoon will probably fall too. The odds of that happening in a battle in Arashi are significantly less.

[Theseus]

Originally posted by nbarclay
Forces around Hurricane are as expected: two immortals closer to us and one a tile farther away.

Not as I expected... as far as I'm concerned, they seriously f*cked up not consolidating all three (at a minimum) or keeping the one on the galley as a threat to our iron.

Hurricane is now much more defensible.

[asleepathewheel]

I think we should pull back to Arashi

They have to come off that mountain sometime.

The problem is, they can be on the mountain between tempest and arashi and we would have to split the defenders. But that would give us 3 more turns of prep, and they can't see there is a mountian there yet, i think.


plus the cats can get in shots the turn before the attack on the city.

I don't know, tough decision.


Hey, we've got a GoW galley 88 of monsoon

[Aeson]

It may be a mistake, but if they were able to load 2 more Immortals by moving back up the coast instead of all the way down it could hurt us a lot.

I'd be in favor of keeping our Desert of Tears WC out there just galley spotting and watching Immortals... If they have their Galley 8888 of Hurricane that means they moved 2, dropped, moved 8, picked up more Immortals, and then moved 2. That would mean we are facing 4 Immortals in the first group, and we'd have to seriously alter our plans.

So my vote is to move 9 with that WC, see the coast and the N mountain, and if it's clear to the N move 9 again. If we run into troops we could attack or move back depending on the situation.

Our Galleys move 8's for the next two turns, and hopefully the WC spots Vox's galley so we can set it up that they don't see us and drop off their Immortals before we can attack.

[nbarclay]

Aeson, your tests were with us having three vet pikes, two regular swords, and a vet sword, right? Any idea how it would affect things if we have an extra regular sword up there? With Harry a tile farther away from Hurricane than expected, we have a serious option of having Zonk join the A9 defense instead of helping out around Hurricane.

The thought occurs to me that fighting Vox farther south has one enormous advantage over fighting Vox around Arashi 9. If Vox attacks Arashi 9, no more than one wounded Voxian unit will be inside our cultural borders. That means in three turns or less, wounded Voxians can be on their way to attack us again. In contrast, if we do our fighting farther south, wounded Voxians will have to spend time retreating before they can even start healing.

One other note: if we make our stand in Arashi, we can upgrade our remaining swords to medieval infantry next turn. Odds for medieval infantry attacking an unfortified enemy on flood plains, even across a river, should be better than odds trying to defend on a mountain. Right? Then again, Vox would have the option of moving 6 instead of 3 from Arashi-9. That would free us from having to worry much about defending our West, but it would put them out of range of attacking medieval infantry for the moment.

Something I just noticed: we have five workers in a position where they could move onto Arashi 2 or Arashi 3 this turn and road it next turn. With either of those tiles roaded, if Vox does move 6 from Arashi 9, our medieval infantry could get in position to intercept; they'd do it a turn later but without the penalty of a cross-river attack.

[Aeson]

The GoW galley is expected. It should have 2 Horses on it... so we need to shadow them with some WC's.

[nbarclay]

Originally posted by Theseus


Not as I expected... as far as I'm concerned, they seriously f*cked up not consolidating all three (at a minimum) or keeping the one on the galley as a threat to our iron.

Hurricane is now much more defensible.

As expected based on the screenshot. I agree, not as expected from the previous turn.

[Aeson]

I was testing with 3 Pikes and 4 Swords (anticipating that we could hold Hurricane without Zonk). Or 4 Pikes and 3 Swords/4Pikes and 4 Swords.

3 Pikes and 3 Swords means we most likely lose a WC or two and all most of our Pikes/Swords.

[Arrian]

Yeah, it is a tough decision. Each option has its ups & downs.

I agree that trying to hold A9 is a bit of a gamble. But I think it's a gamble with good odds of success. Plus, pulling back does allow them to park a bunch of firepower on that mountain, where it is difficult to dislodge.

Theseus, what is your take on A9?

-Arrian

[Arrian]

3 Pikes and 3 Swords means we most likely lose a WC or two and all most of our Pikes/Swords.

Really? It's that bad?

-Arrian

[Aeson]

Something I just noticed: we have five workers in a position where they could move onto Arashi 2 or Arashi 3 this turn and road it next turn.

Ah, perfect! I'd say Arashi 2, just because it allows them to go finish the mine on the incense hill the next turn.

[Aeson]

On average it is that bad. Having 4 Swords means that we usually win 2 of the fights against them. That cuts out another Immortal that has to attack the extra survivor.

It's a close thing in any case, all our units (Pikes/Swords)are badly damaged, and another unit to take an attack means we save another 1-2 units from being killed while redlined or very low health.

Arashi 9 is a chance for a huge military victory for both sides. It's not worth the risk to us I don't think. We stand to have better odds almost anywhere else. If they 'split' Arashi and Tempest is the exception, one of the two cities would have about the same or lower odds while the other would still have higher. (given ND's cash, we could probably change that)

[nbarclay]

Consider the following scenario: We pull back to Arashi, build a road on Arashi 3, and upgrade our swords next turn. Vox moves onto Arashi 9 and from there to Arashi six. We get five medieval infantry attacks on them across the river if we keep Zonk in the Arashi theater (plus a cat attack while they're on the mountain and another the following turn). We also get about eight non-cross-river WC attacks, albeit without the reserve movement needed to get away from counterattacks. I think that gives us better odds than trying to hold at Arashi 9 does.

And if Vox moves 6 from Arashi 9 instead, I like our odds even better because our medieval infantry won't have to attack cross-river. The only big down side is that Vox would have a much better chance at counterattacing our surviving medieval infantry with their surviving immortals, although we could accompany the medieval infantry with a pike to make that a little more expensive for them.