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I've been running simulations, and I think we can almost guarantee Arashi 9 doesn't fall this next turn, even against 11 Immortals. We take pretty heavy losses, but then again so do they.
The thing is, we only have 3 Pikes there, and they are unfortified. The way the RNG works... those 3 pikes could take out the whole stack, or might not even dent the Immortals. On average they kill 1 each, and then hurt the next rather badly. With just 1 more Pike, the odds swing drastically in our favor. 'Runs' are much less drastic over 16 hps than 12 it seems. They still happen, but on average things are much more 'expected' with 4 Pikes.
To get our 4th Pike there we have to rush it. I'm not sure how the preferences work in PBEM... does it go by what's saved in the game, or by what the player's settings are at at that point? If we can set it up so that our first unit build takes us to the city, we can then go and rush other projects (granted we waste shields this way, but in this case I think it's worth it).
We will have 137g from commerce, do we get the 200 gold from ND before or after the production is gone over? The commerce will be added before the production gets done.
If we can get into the city view, in Arashi, the Pike costs ~80g to rush. If we put everything we have in the area onto Arashi 9, it guarantees they can't bust through. They could get lucky and have ~8 Immortals left (worst case I've run into with 4 Pikes), but they wouldn't be on Arashi 9 regardless of whether they 'won' or 'lost'. That gives us enough time to get more troops together to fight for Arashi, especially if they take the time to heal up (and most of their Immortals need it).
So what we need on Arashi 9 are the 4 Pikes, all our Swords in the area, and all our WC's. I've only twice gotten to where the WC's defend, and only 1 at that (it once killed an Immortal...but that won't happen often
best we can hope for is the retreat (50/50)).
Worst Case (that I ran into...about 50 runs): 8 Immortals left at various stages of health. Lose 1 WC, all but one of our Swords, and all our Pikes. We would lose Arashi most likely.
Average Case: 4-6 Immortals left at various stages of health. 1-2 Pikes at low health, 1-3 Swords at low health, and all our WC's left. We win this war if the average holds.
Best Case: 2 Immortals left at low health. 3 Pikes (Elite's) left at various levels of health, 3 Swords left at various levels of health, and all our WC's. And a Leader (3 times out of all the runs).
When using only 3 Pikes, we sometimes get close to the best case, but there are a lot more 'worst case' type outcomes. If at all possible, that 4th Pike..
For the record... I was using all veteran Immortals in my tests, I don't remember the exact makeup, but some of them are regs. So the odds should favor us more if they do try to bust through Arashi 9. I was somewhat suprised to see how badly the Pikes did, normally getting killed by the second Immortal. I have never really built pikes in a game (rarely spears or even riflemen) so this is definitely a learning experience.
The thing is, we only have 3 Pikes there, and they are unfortified. The way the RNG works... those 3 pikes could take out the whole stack, or might not even dent the Immortals. On average they kill 1 each, and then hurt the next rather badly. With just 1 more Pike, the odds swing drastically in our favor. 'Runs' are much less drastic over 16 hps than 12 it seems. They still happen, but on average things are much more 'expected' with 4 Pikes.
To get our 4th Pike there we have to rush it. I'm not sure how the preferences work in PBEM... does it go by what's saved in the game, or by what the player's settings are at at that point? If we can set it up so that our first unit build takes us to the city, we can then go and rush other projects (granted we waste shields this way, but in this case I think it's worth it).
We will have 137g from commerce, do we get the 200 gold from ND before or after the production is gone over? The commerce will be added before the production gets done.
If we can get into the city view, in Arashi, the Pike costs ~80g to rush. If we put everything we have in the area onto Arashi 9, it guarantees they can't bust through. They could get lucky and have ~8 Immortals left (worst case I've run into with 4 Pikes), but they wouldn't be on Arashi 9 regardless of whether they 'won' or 'lost'. That gives us enough time to get more troops together to fight for Arashi, especially if they take the time to heal up (and most of their Immortals need it).
So what we need on Arashi 9 are the 4 Pikes, all our Swords in the area, and all our WC's. I've only twice gotten to where the WC's defend, and only 1 at that (it once killed an Immortal...but that won't happen often
best we can hope for is the retreat (50/50)).Worst Case (that I ran into...about 50 runs): 8 Immortals left at various stages of health. Lose 1 WC, all but one of our Swords, and all our Pikes. We would lose Arashi most likely.
Average Case: 4-6 Immortals left at various stages of health. 1-2 Pikes at low health, 1-3 Swords at low health, and all our WC's left. We win this war if the average holds.
Best Case: 2 Immortals left at low health. 3 Pikes (Elite's) left at various levels of health, 3 Swords left at various levels of health, and all our WC's. And a Leader (3 times out of all the runs).
When using only 3 Pikes, we sometimes get close to the best case, but there are a lot more 'worst case' type outcomes. If at all possible, that 4th Pike..
For the record... I was using all veteran Immortals in my tests, I don't remember the exact makeup, but some of them are regs. So the odds should favor us more if they do try to bust through Arashi 9. I was somewhat suprised to see how badly the Pikes did, normally getting killed by the second Immortal. I have never really built pikes in a game (rarely spears or even riflemen) so this is definitely a learning experience.
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