Possible Great Library deal with Vox - discussion thread

[nbarclay]

Does anyone know (or is anyone interested in experimenting to find out) how much tech prices go down depending on how many civs know a tech in PTW 1.14? If we do try to bring Vox in on the Great Library deal, it would be nice to have a clearer picture of that.

Basically, the idea I've been tossing around in my mind is to give Vox a dirt cheap price on techs on the conditions that (1) they buy all their tech from us and (2) they don't sell or trade what they get from us. To make that work, the price would need to be significantly cheaper than if they research half the tech themselves and trade it to another civ that's also lagging behind for the other half. (After all, they probably won't want to do something that profits us unless they stand to gain quite a bit too.) Vox would get a good deal, and we would get a little extra gold above and beyond what we save from not doing our own research. We'd also give Vox a credit toward tech purchases in exchange for contributing a worker or two to the project (and they'd have to contribute at least one to lock in the special prices).

Anyhow, that's the direction my own thoughts have been going in terms of a possible deal. If anyone wants to outline any alternative concepts, please do so, but please keep in mind that Vox will be friendlier and more stable if we don't try to squeeze them for everything we can possibly get.

Nathan

[DeepO]

Well... that's one of the options for sure. It does require a long term peaceful relation with Vox, as we more or less give them the initiative to stop the peace, but OTOH we vasalize them as they are obliged to buy all their research from us.

The cost of the tech sounds about right, and is about half of what I would ask without a non-discosure agreement (NDA from now on). Maybe it's better to let them believe they can trade a tech away, and therefore ask more for it. It does give them the false sense of independence.

The slaves for techs program is something that I obviously support in some way, but I do want to say we need some safeties in place. We can't promise to remain peaceful, only because we had a slave for education deal, so there has to be a reasonable constraint on which techs they can get. Further, we also can't risk that they give us 8 workers, and we need to share all our techs with them...

Re: research cost and contact information: I thought IW got down from 190 to 172 beakers when Sir Ralph and you checked it, which would mean a 10% drop for the first contact with the same tech. The percentages vary, though, with two contacts with the tech, it won't be a 20% drop.

DeepO

[Theseus]

Nathan, that is very sophisticated / subtle. Aeson, Vel and I worked out a nomenclature for neighboring civs (e.g., punching bag, vassal, etc.) many moons ago, but did not address MP issues.

In RL, this would make Vox a "client state." Think Russia and Cuba.

If they would be content with that role (spinmeisters, go to work!), then I would be fine with what you are proposing directionally... but, as has been noted, given their instability, always with one eye cocked their way and with one hand on our sword.

Re tech devaluation: Don;t we know this? Where's alexman?

[nbarclay]

I've tended to think more in terms of the U.S. and Great Britain in envisioning the idea (albeit a lot more aggressive toward the rest of the world). Both civs would recognize that we're the bigger and more powerful one, and thus the "senior partner" in the relationship, but we could still coordinate our actions for the benefit of both. That seems likely to work much better in MP than a vassal-type relationship because it makes the game enjoyable for both players/teams instead of just for the bigger one (assuming the smaller one is willing to settle for something less than first place). At least half of the art of diplomacy is looking for what the person or group you're negotiating with wants and trying to find a way to give it to them while promoting your own interests at the same time.

If we're trying to develop a permanent nomenclature for use in Civ strategic discussions, I like "junior partner" better than "client state" for Vox's role. It has fewer negative connotations. And "asymmetric partnership" might be a good term for the type of relationship.

Nathan

[nbarclay]

I just ran a slightly quick-and-dirty test myself:

- Debug mode, civ-specific abilities disabled
- Seven civs on 1-tile islands, out of contact with each other, player starting ancient era, everyone else medieval
- Seven more 1-tile islands, six around and in visual range from a central one.

I plopped my city and did not add my worker because lower gold production gives finer granularity. The AIs, of course, all plopped their cities and added their workers. I then used debug mode to place a scout for my civ in the central island and, one by one, added scouts for other civs, contacted the civs, and checked prices on cost 3, 4, and 5 techs. (I didn't think to get a "contact with one civ" cost for a cost 3 tech, but that's no big deal.) I got numbers with both three and five gold per turn (laborer as entertainer and laborer working coast) and took the lower one as a reasonably accurate indication (although costs could still be as much as two lower in some cases).

The results, going from cost 3 to cost 5 and starting with the base, "no one you know knows it" cost, are

72 96 120 (base cost)
?? 87 108 (10% reduction with 1 contact)
60 80 99 (17.5% reduction with 2 contacts)
54 72 90 (25% reduction with 3 contacts)
48 63 80 (~34.5% reduction with 4 contacts)
40 55 69 (~44.5% reduction with 5 contacts)
36 48 60 (exact 50% reduction with 6 contacts)

I'm guessing half price may be the lowest Firaxis allows a tech cost to go.

Edit: Note that once we have the Great Library, and given Vox's relatively weak economy, it is highly unlikely that they would ever pay higher than the 3-contacts price researching themselves, and they would very possibly be stuck in the basement around 4- or 5-contact territory.

[nbarclay]

Here's one possible idea for a contract. This has been simmering in my mind for several days now, but I wanted to verify the tech costs before I brought it up for discussion.

1) Gathering Storm and Vox Controli will engage in a partnership to build the Great Library. Gathering Storm will devote one of its cities to the job, adding four workers built elsewhere to the city once suitable tile improvements are in place to speed up the operation. Vox Controli will contribute two workers to the operation, one within ten turns of the agreement's being signed and a second within 20 turns, to further improve our partnership's chances of winning the race for that wonder.

2) Once the Great Library is complete, Vox Controli will purchase all of its technology from Gathering Storm at a price equal to 20% of the "first researcher" cost, which is equal to 40% of the "last researcher" cost.

3) In consideration for such a low price, Vox Controli agrees not to sell, trade, or give any technologies acquired through this project to other civs.

4) As an added compensation for the workers it contributes to the project, Vox Controli will receive a 300-gold credit toward tech purchases at the 20% rate. This would be, for example, just a little over what would be needed to purchase Republic and later Feudalism under this agreement.

5) Should the attempt to build the Great Library fail, Vox will be repaid four workers unless some other arrangement satisfactory to both teams is reached as an alternative.

Analysis:
If Vox is our only customer for techs gained through the Great Library, this gives Vox a greater benefit than it does us for our involving them in the project instead of going it alone. But if I were Vox, I would be less than thrilled at the idea of GS getting the benefit of free techs for themselves plus significant quantities of gold from me plus maybe additional gold from others if I didn't get a really great deal too. It might be good to open negotiations at 25% instead of 20%, but the deal as written would be something of clear and significant benefit to both civs if we're interested in a relatively long-term partnership. (Note that in addition to the gold from Vox, getting two workers from Vox puts us significantly ahead in our REXing process, which translates into additional shields and gold. And the added military security for us wouldn't hurt.)

Nathan

[Shiber]

Good plan overall.
2) It seems just too sweet to me. I understand your motives, but I think we can push for as much as 30% the price.
4) Good idea for an incentive. With a credit line, they'll still have to pay us back eventually, but this will make them feel that they're being treated well and are given good benefits.
Analysis: this deal gives us military security, but it should give Vox the impression that they're getting military security as well. Perhaps you should stress the fact that while we're building a wonder, we will have to limit our military production, and we trust that they are men of their word and will not attack (if they do, they will lose two workers, and eventually, a war).

[DeepO]

I think you're too generous, I woud suggest a 25% with a non-disclosure agreement, 50% with a free to trade agreement. They are going to get more then one tech perfectly in time with this deal... no need to advantage them even more...

As to the timing: 20 turns from now would be fine, but this is not ideal for the timing of negotiations. For that, 15 turns would be better.

I still am uncertain if we want to tell Vox we're going for the GL, I definately think we should poll for opinions before you start any negotiations with Vox.

DeepO

[Arrian]

Agreed, it's a tad too generous. Leave yourself some room for negotiation.

Once the Great Library is complete, Vox Controli will purchase all of its technology from Gathering Storm at a price equal to 20% of the "first researcher" cost, which is equal to 40% of the "last researcher" cost.

If I understand this correctly, you're saying that if a tech would cost Vox 100 beakers to research as the last civ to research it (the rest of us have it), we will sell them the tech for 40 gold? Why such a huge discount? I'd rather just do the GL ourselves then.

-Arrian

[nbarclay]

Shiber, "a credit" in this context refers to an amount credited to their account as already having been paid, not a line of credit that they would have to pay back.

As for exactly what the price should be, a lot depends on Vox's attitude toward the situation. If they look mainly at what they get out of the deal, 25%/50% could fly quite nicely. If their thinking goes more in the direction of, "No fair, you're getting a whole lot more out of this than we are," it could cause long-term resentment and friction even if they accept the deal as the best they can get.

Also keep in mind the effect of libraries, which Vox, as a scientific civ, can build cheaply. 20% without a library is the same as 30% with, so once Vox gets enough libraries, even a 20% price in gold would not gain them a huge amount compared with researching half and trading for the other half. If we push the amount to 25% (except perhaps for the first few techs before libraries become common), Vox could easily end up paying what amounts to fourth-researcher prices assuming they could research half and trade for half, which would probably be a truly horrible deal for them.

Edit: By the way, the library aspect to the situation is something that hadn't really occurred to me before.

[Harovan]

Hmmm, according to Nathans empiric numbers, the formula looks close to rc = bc * (2(n-1) - m) / 2(n-1), where rc = real cost, bc = base cost, n = number of civs in game (or n-1 number of opponents) and m = number of civs met, that already have the advance. There are small discrepancies, though; if the formula was exact, the last column of numbers would be 120, 110, 100, 90, 80, 70, 60. Being a programmer myself, I think the cause could be either a slightly modified formula or, more likely, a little sloppy approach with multiplication and division using integer arithmetic. Rounding errors, to say it short.

The deal sounds good to me, although as others already mentioned, our first bet should give us much more room for negotiations. We should end with at least 25% of the basic cost paid, so I think we should demand 30-40% in the first proposal, what about 1/3 or 33%?

[nbarclay]

Originally posted by Arrian

If I understand this correctly, you're saying that if a tech would cost Vox 100 beakers to research as the last civ to research it (the rest of us have it), we will sell them the tech for 40 gold? Why such a huge discount? I'd rather just do the GL ourselves then.

The reason why such a huge discount is that the "last researcher" cost isn't what our offer has to compete with. What our offer has to compete with is researching at 5th- or 6th-researcher prices and trading. Tech leaders who research half and trade for half would average getting techs at 50% of first-researcher cost, or the same as last-researcher cost. If the two civs at the back of the research race research half and trade for half, they could get tech for as little as around 27.5%. Even without libraries factored in, Vox doesn't necessarily get anywhere near as much from the deal as we do, and once libraries come into play, even at 20%, Vox's big advantage may be less one of savings than one of being in fourth place instead of stuck in back.

Then again, once wars start being fought, the idea of the last-place civ being in any position to be a trading partner to a healthy civ could evaporate. The closer you look, the more complicated things get. Still, factoring in the benefits of libraries, 20% in gold isn't the fantastic bargain for Vox that it appears to be at first glance.

Nathan

[DeepO]

What about if we sell to Vox at half the cost it will be to them at that moment in time? If they are the last to discover the tech, they get it at 25% of the initial value. If they are 4th, they get it at 33%.

This is good to them, and better to us.

Nathan, I agree on the value of libraries before marketplaces are available, but there are a couple of problems with this analysis. First of all, it will take ages before Vox has libraries everywhere, as they are simply too expensive if you need to build up a military. Further, if they know they can get their techs from us, they are not going to build any libraries themselves, or at least not focus on it.

What's more a point of discussion is how long we want this deal, and if we can choose to stop it at any time. Further, why would we do this only with Vox, if other partners may be willing to give the same kind of money for a tech. Once we have the GL, we could very well make an announcement on the general board that we're selling techs at half price to everyone who can spare us the money.

DeepO

[nbarclay]

Half price is no savings at all compared with researching half and trading for the other half. And I can't see Vox wanting to enrich us unless they stand to gain at least almost as much as we do.

In regard to the tradeoff between building libraries and building military, a lot depends on whether Vox feels like they can trust us not to attack them. If they feel like they can, they're a scientific civ, so building libraries in their core shouldn't be a huge problem. If they feel like they can't trust us, then yes, building libraries would be a much bigger problem for them, but that kind of atmosphere is not conducive to its being safe for us and Vox to coexist.

Really, that's what it comes down to in my view: if we and Vox are to coexist, we need a type of partnership in which both civs clearly benefit. If we have that, each civ would give up something of value if it attacked the other. But if we try to squeeze Vox for everything we possibly can, we can expect them to resent it, and that would make sharing a border with them a whole lot more dangerous.

In regard to "Why with Vox?" because we want them to contribute workers, and because as neighbors, I see a close, genuine partnership that benefits both sides as the only viable alternative to warfare. We likely would offer cut-rate tech deals to other civs as well, but we're many, many turns away from needing to formulate a policy in that regard.

Nathan

[Shiber]

Originally posted by DeepO
Further, why would we do this only with Vox, if other partners may be willing to give the same kind of money for a tech. Once we have the GL, we could very well make an announcement on the general board...

That's exactly what I had in mind!
We could also identify the weakest civ in the game that is not Vox and sign an exclusivity deal with them. They'll stop their own research and use the gold that they stockpile to pay us for all the techs until the GL is made obsolete.