Turn 38

[Harovan]

To be edited by the leaders of the Scholia.

Status:
- Researching Alphabet at 100%. 22 beakers (2 turns) remaining. Next turn science can be lowered to 70%.
- 20 gold cash, running 1 deficit.

Urgent questions:
- none.

Military:
- Slash continues to explore along the west coast, goes 1 next.

Economy:
- Northern worker (should we name them too, or number them?) finishes chopping, bonus goes to EotS. Startis irrigating.
- For the moment, rename the northern worker Worker #1 and the southern Worker #2. We can come up with names later if we want to.
- Switch laborer in Cyclone to wheat tile.
- Switch Hurricane production back to barracks.
- Last turn on Alphabet. Adjust science slider to avoid wasting gold.

Diplomacy:
- nothing for now.

[nbarclay]

I'm tempted to send Vox a message after we play our turn to let them know they can go ahead and offer Iron Working and to touch bases on a couple unresolved matters (e.g. we've told them about our entire end of the continent but they haven't told us about the other land connected to theirs, and maybe ask them what they're up to with that road).

[DeepO]

Nathan, I don't mind if you make contact with Vox (keep them friendly, possibly starting to feel their stand on our future relations), but I wouldn't start the tech deal yet. Delay it a few turns, please.

DeepO

[zeit]

Are you still up to it, Nathan, dealing with those Voxians who can't treat their (probably) closest neighbor with respect?

I think the last couple of letters got their attention, coupled with their sudden interest in tech trade. It would be a good thig to remind them that they are not playing against (or with...) the AI, remind them about our deal, and try to discover something about what they feel regarding that road.

[Theseus]

DeepO, why do you want to delay the tech deal?

[nbarclay]

My feeling is that we ought to complete the tech deal ASAP so if Vox decides to doublecross us on it, we'll find out as soon as possible. Yes it could reveal our research rate if any of them thinks to run the calculations, but I don't think secrecy should be our biggest concern right now.

Zeit, I regard myself as being on good diplomatic terms with BetaHound, and I'm inclined to view Vox's earlier actions mostly just as pursuing a standard SP strategy without really considering the diplomatic ramifications in MP. (We've considered the same sort of thing ourselves with our ideas for blocking chokepoints, but fortunately, we do have people attuned to the possible diplomatic repercussions.) They moved their warriors what, about four tiles between the time Grog couldn't move any farther and the time they agreed to withdraw? That's really not that big a deal in and of itself; indeed, if we wanted Grog on his obervation post, reciprocity would have demanded that we let Vox's warriors come about as far toward our capital anyhow. Our fear of what Vox might do was totally out of proportion to any harm they actually did, and I want us to be careful that we base our reaction to them on the seriousness of their actual actions, not on the seriousness of what we were afraid they might do.

I'm not currently willing to trust them enough to turn my back on them just because they say they want peace. Not by a long shot. (Which is why I want to complete the trade deal as quickly as we can.) But neither do I dismiss the possibility that their claims to want peace are genuine.

Nathan

[asleepathewheel]

I agree with Nathan that we should get this deal done right now. I don't think that giving it to them now would reveal too much about our tech rate/economy. Not that I think they wouldn't be as smart about the game as some here, but that its at most rather arcane. For all they know, we might have had alphabet for a few turns now. Better to know now where the iron deposits are, for our expansion and for time to develop a defensive contingency plan.

Have they said what they are currently researching?

[Randolph]

Is hiding our research rate the only reason to deal the deal?

[notyoueither]

My God!

Is this what happens when power corrupts?

Damn, I forgot the linking is turned off. It was supposed to point to Sir Ralph's muppet.

I like the way you guys are doing the orders. That editing 'bug' isn't so bad after all.

[nbarclay]

I just had another thought regarding the diplomatic situation. We probably ought to go ahead and line up a deal for Writing now so Vox doesn't interfere with our plans by researching it themselves (thereby messing up our ability to trade it to them).

[nbarclay]

I've started working on a message to Vox, and I realized I can't ask them to initiate the deal without telling them we aren't quite finished yet. If we were finished, we could initiate the deal in-game ourselves. But I still want to get this taken care of, if only for the sake of my own peace of mind. And besides, I don't view having them speculate that we might be able to research even faster than we really can as likely to be to our advantage.

Nathan

[nbarclay]

I just posted a proposed message to Vox in the Vox diplomatic comments thread.

[DeepO]

Hmmm... it seems I'm outnumbered here on the delay of the tech deal. I trust Vox enough for them to wait 1 or 2 turns, they can't backstab us now anyway. They don't have a baaracks yet, and certainly not enoiugh cash to upgrade any force...

Indeed, the primary reason for delaying is that is hides our research capabilities. They know exactly when we started on it, so if they want, they can calculate exactly how much commerce we're currently making. True, they might not view this information as important, and they may not be cunning enough to do anything with it, but still, more secrecy is better. 1 or 2 turns delay is all I ask.

DeepO

[nbarclay]

I'm not expecting Vox to attack, but when I contemplate how Vox could hurt us most, a doublecross on the iron deal to buy them time for an attack sends my "nightmare meter" deep into the red zone. Even assuming we're right that they don't have a barracks yet, they could have one very shortly after we finish Iron Working, sparking a race for whether they can get immortals to us first or we can hook up iron first. (And if they underestimate our research pace, they may think the window of opportunity there is bigger than it really is.) Any such attack would be a desparation move, but if Vox expects us to take them out as soon as it's convenient for us, a desperation move might not look like the worst possible idea. As I said, I don't think such an attack is likely, but it will soothe my paranoid streak greatly when we can rule the possibility out completely.

Since I regard the possibility of such a doublecross as relatively low, I could still be persuaded to favor delaying the trade if I were sure having Vox underestimate our research potential would work to our advantage. But would it? On one hand, if Vox sees our true research strength, they might try to slow us down or even attack militarily in order to weaken our advantage. But on the other, they might view our strength as a sign that being friends with us is their best hope for long-term prosperity (not to mention survival). And given that uncertainty as to whether misdirection would work for us or against us (assuming they bother with the calculations to notice), I'm inclined to favor a decision that will put all possibility of the nightmare scenario behind us sooner and minimize the danger if it does occur.

Nathan

[DeepO]

I've been wondering about the same thing: What will happen if they notice we're far better then they are researchwise? (BTW, this doesn't need loads of calculations, a simple 'we started earlier on this tech, and haven't finished yet while GS has alphabet now' comparison could do it).

Roleplaying Vox again...
If I were in the Vox position, most likely I would try to clip the wings on the research partner, while making sure I benefit most from it. A long term tech trade deal is not really realistic, so I will need other means to compensate. Millitary is one option, but this won't do me any good in the current situation, as an attack now will cost me more then I can gain.
What will work is isolation: I let the research partner do the work for me, and I sell it to another Civ. Meanwhile, I do a tiny bit of research myself, which puts me on top of both.
[/end of roleplay]

If they notice (which we'll need to assume, as a worst case situation), most likely they will be very hesitant to trade contact information with us.

So in that sense, I wouldn't show off our biggest advantages so easily, we have two major things going for us: expansion and research. Expansion can be followed from the F11 screen, so please let us hide our research capacity a little while longer.

DeepO