Pottery ready 2670BC, what next?

[DeepO]

I was thinking on the same thing... minimap exchanging seems a much better option now, even if we can assume they have less explored then us. It would block part of the specific terrain, while giving us a feel for their lands, and allow us to see whether they have contact with anyone.

As to stopping to scout while negotiating: from their perspective, we violated our own deal first. I would be suprised to see they have stopped moving.

DeepO

[alva]

As to stopping to scout while negotiating: from their perspective, we violated our own deal first. I would be suprised to see they have stopped moving.

Again, I don't agree, all they have to do is give us a sign they are ok with it(even shorterm).
You don't have to do this in game afterall A pm would do.
(I do hope the diplo guys here check their PM box regularly
(the auto notofier doesn't always work 100%)

[DeepO]

Well... at least we don't have anything to complain when they would come further...

BTW: the title of this thread is not correct: pottery will be finished in 2710 BC I think.

DeepO

[nbarclay]

Now that we can see more of the land on Vox's side of the chokepoint, I'd like to make a proposal. Vox can, if they choose, prevent us from crossing to contact someone else. But there are enough tiles visible on the far side that they would probably have a much more difficult time preventing us from guiding someone to meet us, should their neighbor be interested.

I therefore propose going for Mysticism as our next tech on the grounds that (1) it is part of our long-term strategy to get Monarchy and (2) it is likely to be tradable, whereas Bronze Working and Warrior Code are not. There would be some risk involved in pursuing that approach if Vox tries a major attack really early, but if the strategy works, we would be in a much stronger position than we would without tech trading.

Opinions?

Nathan

[Dominae]

Upon further reflection, I believe we should research Warrior Code next. Here are my reasons:

1. No matter what happens (war or peace), we benefit from this tech. If Vox moves aside, we can trade them this tech, which they no doubt want very much. If we attack, a few well-placed Veteran Archers will expunge the Warriors from our lands and put us on the offensive, hopefully before they get enough Immortals to the isthmus. By the way, Archers are also a good way of saying: "We mean business!".

2. Hurricane, our dedicated unit-pumper, will only be ready to produce Veteran units after we have discovered these two techs (more or less). This is assuming we go with a second Warrior, and not an immediate Barracks. Thus, there are no grounds for the argument that we need Bronze Working first to set up an early defense.

3. The Voxians already have Bronze Working. If something can be arranged diplomatically, we may get it through trade. Researching it ourselves could well be a waste.


Dominae

[Harovan]

DeepO is right, I made a mistake. Pottery is ready 2710BC. Our granary is ready 2670BC.

This makes the discussion more urgent. I vote for either Bronze Working or Warrior Code. Perhaps Warrior Code is an even better choice, in case VC changes her attitude and becomes cooperative, which I highly doubt, but can't completely exclude. We could trade either Wheel or Warrior Code for BW then, or perhaps both for BW+IW, although "they would never accept such a deal", I guess. Warrior Code is also a milestone on the way to Monarchy, so we won't risk to waste beakers.

[Dominae]

Nathan, I believe Warrior Code is very tradable. Also, your proposal rests on the assumption that Vox has contacted someone else, and that war will not break out. Those are two big "ifs". I do see merit in researching Mysticism (because it leads us towards Monarchy), but if we do go to war we will need Warrior Code and Bronze Working anyways. We cannot afford to wait 8 turns at this point.


Dominae

[nbarclay]

The deal for Iron Working might be WC+TW+Pottery for BW+IW. That would be even in terms of tech costs if I recall correctly. The trouble is that any trade we make while Vox has contact with someone else and we don't is an opportunity for them to turn around and profit from our techs. Are we better off doing that, or are we better off researching techs Vox already knows at (presumably) a slightly reduced cost?

By the way, it occurs to me that assuming tech costs are lowered when other people you have contact with get techs in MP the way they are in SP, if we could get the math right, we could use that fact to spy a little on what techs Vox has and what they don't.

Nathan

[nbarclay]

Originally posted by Dominae
Nathan, I believe Warrior Code is very tradable. Also, your proposal rests on the assumption that Vox has contacted someone else, and that war will not break out. Those are two big "ifs". I do see merit in researching Mysticism (because it leads us towards Monarchy), but if we do go to war we will need Warrior Code and Bronze Working anyways. We cannot afford to wait 8 turns at this point.

Vox has said that they've contacted someone else. The only assumption involved is that they weren't lying about it, which I'm inclined to accept as an operating hypothesis.

If Vox does attack us so early, we'll still be able to defend our southern area (which is all we'll have built up by then if we focus on developing our core) with WCs. And we'll have plenty of advance warning of any attack.

Nathan

[FrustratedPoet]

As far as I can tell we've gotta go for either BW or Warrior Code. Chances are high that we'll be fighting a war in the next 15-20 turns and we'll need both those techs to stand any chance of survival.

I vote for BW.

[Dominae]

Let's assume that Vox has contacted someone (besides us). Then I think the biggest "if" is that we're hoping that civ will come down to the isthmus to meet us in any reasonable amount of time. For all we know, Vox and the other team have signed a pact not to enter each other's lands (which I would do, if I could keep GS isolated).

Mysticism does bring us closer to Monarchy, but by itself it may do nothing else for us. Warrior Code provides Archers, and is a prerequisite to both Monarchy and Horseback Riding. This makes it quite valuable to us in itself, and should be important to other teams for the same reason. Are we facing any Militaristic/Religious civs? I'm not 100% sure, but I do not think so. Therefore if Vox did get Ceremonial Burial from another team, they cannot be getting Warrior Code as well, unless they researched it first (highly unlikely). So again Warrior Code is a safe bet.


Dominae

[nbarclay]

Originally posted by FrustratedPoet
As far as I can tell we've gotta go for either BW or Warrior Code. Chances are high that we'll be fighting a war in the next 15-20 turns and we'll need both those techs to stand any chance of survival.

Why? Anything south of the mountains can be defended quite adequately with WCs, and it will be considerably more than 15-20 turns before we have any genuine need to settle farther north than that (especially if we're in a war and forced to focus on war production instead of expansion). By the time we need to go on the offensive and head north (assuming we haven't already persuaded Vox to give up and go home by then), we can have Bronze Working and Iron Working and use warrior upgrades to swordsmen to give us an offensive force.

And what makes you think Vox will attempt any kind of serious attack so early? That would be a truly stupid thing to do given how much distance favors the defender at this stage of the game.

Nathan

[nbarclay]

The only thing I see Warrior Code buying us directly is an easier way to kill Vox's scouts. Archers are less useful than WCs in good terrain and less useful than swordsmen (which we can prebuild warriors to upgrade to) on terrain that would slow WCs down. Aside from one or two to take out spies, I would view them as a waste of production.

Still, this being MP, there is a chance Warrior Code will go overlooked (especially if others make the same "we can always trade for it" assumption left over from SP that I fell into). So I suppose I can go along with it if that's still what everyone else seems to want when the time comes.

Nathan

[DeepO]

Hmmm... I would be inclined to go for BW, and stated this before, but you may be right on archers. BW can be traded, and Vox will have interest in archers if we want to trade it. Further, we could use archers to deal with spies. I don't agree it's good to get to HBR, as we have no imminent need for HBR, our WCs are better (except they can't cross all terrain, of course).

But, if we get a deal across the next few turns, I would go for alphabet, as it is on the way to mapmaking and literature. I'm not sure on the general opinions here: will we be aiming for monarchy first, or rather writing (embassies, contact), mapmaking, literature and possibly republic? Monarchy certainly would be better if we would get into a war with Vox, but as long as there is hope, I wouldn't go for it. War would be too costly when so many teams seem eager to trade techs, there is no way we are going to keep up in research.

DeepO

[FrustratedPoet]

I can't see that Vox will trade us BW. To trade us a military tech seems a bit daft.
If I was them I wouldn't want to help us get spearmen. But then again what do I know?