The slider circa 3250bc

[notyoueither]

We will have 5 gold left as of the beginning of 3200. We are running a defecit of 2 per turn. As of now we are 4 from the Wheel (3 as of 3200), but we do not have the funds to maintain that pace.

Should we let up now? I have had some unfortunate experiences with going too low in gold. I have not gamed it out, but I have found myself losing units when the math did not indicate that would happen. Is it possible that you spend before you generate? I am unsure on this.

We will have a settler in 7 turns.

I think we should back off the science slider in 3200 to 0 deficit so long as that does not delay the Wheel by more than 2 turns (5 instead of 3 turns). That way we still can see the horses before our first settler is completed.

What do you think?

[alva]

Although, I'm not in favour of it, but an option is to pop the hut, It could contain gold.

Slowing it down, sounds like the best thing, having a
couple of gold in reserve is never a bad thing.

[Shiber]

Is there a chance that the hut would give us the wheel?
If so then we must delay popping the hut until we have discovered the wheel ourselves.

[DeepO]

Shiber: it never takes the tech you are researching, in fact, for expansionists civs that is a way to direct the tech you will get from a hut. Plus, as said in the turn 16 thread as well: there is no advantage in waiting (at least that I see), unless a barb could escape towards our capital.

Re: slider:some fast calculations, correct me if I'm wrong.
In 3200 BC, the remaining beaker cost of the wheel would be 21 (7*3). Running at 100% tech for one more turn gives 14 beakers in 3150 BC. We can't get it before 3000 BC (not enough cash to keep running the deficit), so if the slider gets to 70% in 3150 (5 beakers, 0 deficit), we finish in 3000 BC with one beaker lost. So, you can put the slider to 90% next turn (1 deficit), and still be finished in 3000BC, with 4 gold in the treasury.

This leads to 90% in 3200 BC, and 70% after that for the remaining of the wheel.

DeepO

[Shiber]

Excellent.

[DeepO]

Well, there is one problem with that calculation: we know the 21 beakers cost is the upper limit, it could however be 20, 19 or 18. If it is 20, we could run a -2 deficit for 2 turns, and a -1 deficit for one turn, which should mean we get the wheel with 0 in our piggy bank in 3 turns, instead of in 4.
If it would be 18 beakers, we could even make it with 2 in the bank. The scenario I calculated above should be the worst case... 4 turns to the wheel at most.

NYE, could you keep tech to 100% one turn when you play it, and measure exactly how many beakers are left for the wheel? if you set the slider to 10%, you should only get one beaker per turn, so the amount of turns should be a precise measure. It will be easier to decide, and the gold we possibly lose in 3200 BC by being a bit to techy can be recuperated later.

DeepO

[notyoueither]

Good idea DeepO. I will check that when I get home this evening.

Unfortunately, there is one problem with our calculations. One of the labourers switches from fur to fp on turn 19 (effective for T20). Soon we will know better what the exact remaining cost of the Wheel is so that we can plan better.