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I agree, attack the 2/4 DD with our 3/4. It's 80% in our favor.
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Aeson, you're forgetting one thing in this equation, which totally alters it. Lego can bombard that stack at will... they know we don't have 11 full TRs there. Let's say they assume 5 of them are filled. No matter how many DDs are defending it, they can bombard the first ships, until 5 TRs remain at full health (they could even get at least a few of them to 3/4 health if they wanted to). In that respect, a 3/4 DD will do no help whatsoever, as the BBs in range are enough to sink any units in that stack.
What they can't do, is sink all of the transports. And this we can use by moving a couple of units on land, and chaining them next turn. a 1/4 TR is just as good a chainer as a 4/4 TR...
DeepOComment
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Movement continued
- 3/4 DD moves 3221 and attacks 2/4 DD Myrmidon
- Myrmidon sunk.
- 3/4 DD forts.
If you've got a calculator ready, could you tell me the odds of attacking a 1/4 DD with TR?
DeepOComment
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I didn't want any units in the N stack though! My equation is for the S stack. We can only chain so many units to the S stack and still be able to hit Tip... however many Transports as survive in the N stack. So we have to estimate how many Transports can survive in the N stack (X) and fill 7- X Transports in the S stack.Originally posted by DeepO
Aeson, you're forgetting one thing in this equation, which totally alters it. Lego can bombard that stack at will... they know we don't have 11 full TRs there. Let's say they assume 5 of them are filled. No matter how many DDs are defending it, they can bombard the first ships, until 5 TRs remain at full health (they could even get at least a few of them to 3/4 health if they wanted to). In that respect, a 3/4 DD will do no help whatsoever, as the BBs in range are enough to sink any units in that stack.
Otherwise we will have more units to chain than we can chain.
That is exactly what I am saying. But we need to sink 1 more Lego ship and cover the Transports with a DD before we can leave 8 M on the ground and be "safe" IMO.What they can't do, is sink all of the transports. And this we can use by moving a couple of units on land, and chaining them next turn. a 1/4 TR is just as good a chainer as a 4/4 TR...
DeepOComment
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4/4 Transport attacks a 1/4 DD at 35%.Comment
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So the S fleet should be:
3/4 DD
2/4 DD
1 Empty Transport
6 Full Transports (6S 30M 11T)
That leaves 1 extra Marine out, with 6S 1M in one of the Transports, to guarantee it won't be sunk.Comment
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Sorry, didn't catch that until now. I fully agree, of course!Originally posted by Aeson
I didn't want any units in the N stack though! My equation is for the S stack. We can only chain so many units to the S stack and still be able to hit Tip... however many Transports as survive in the N stack. So we have to estimate how many Transports can survive in the N stack (X) and fill 7- X Transports in the S stack.
For me it was more of a gut feeling thing
In that respect, you're right. a 3/4 DD protecting means another TR which will survive.That is exactly what I am saying. But we need to sink 1 more Lego ship and cover the Transports with a DD before we can leave 8 M on the ground and be "safe" IMO.
DeepOComment
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Another option would be to leave an extra 6 Marine on the ground (15 Total) and hope to be able to chain 6 M 2 S from the mainland next turn if we look to be able to take Tip or Abilene if not enough of our N Transports survive.Comment
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On the contrary. If you leave units out of a TR, that TR has a higher chance of sinking... the settlers should be in full TRs, while the M should be in 7/8 TRs.Originally posted by Aeson
So the S fleet should be:
3/4 DD
2/4 DD
1 Empty Transport
6 Full Transports (6S 30M 11T)
That leaves 1 extra Marine out, with 6S 1M in one of the Transports, to guarantee it won't be sunk.
DeepOComment
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That looks better to me, gives us even more freedom next turn.Originally posted by Aeson
Another option would be to leave an extra 6 Marine on the ground (15 Total) and hope to be able to chain 6 M 2 S from the mainland next turn if we look to be able to take Tip or Abilene if not enough of our N Transports survive.
DeepOComment
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Oops, right. Settlers in a full transport, and a Transport of 7 Marines.Comment
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Oh, something else: there are only 4 S in the fleet. 2 S are still on Stormia, as I chained 8 MI over.
DeepOComment
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I've been thinking on stealing Lego's WM. We can make it cheaper for us, if we wait 1 turn, and ask for GoW's WM. they've got a bit of land uncovered we can't see atm. I'm sure they will be interested in our WM as well...
DeepOComment
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Aeson, do you need so many T in transport? If we could have e.g. 3 less, we could make all non-essential TRs 7/8, and have the rest fully loaded.
DeepOComment
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To touch on the Spy, will they try to expose our spy next turn? They don't know we have a spy, and aren't likely to have one. So why waste the gold? Then again, they have plenty of cash, so it's a risk.
If we expose their spy, they have 30% to plant, and will know we have a spy again. So it's 30% that they will expose our spy if we expose their spy.
The question is if we think they are more than 30% likely to expose our spy not knowing we got our spy back in. I think it's pretty close, and am fine with either option.
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Ok. I gotta go now. I think that's basically everything I have an opinion on.Comment
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