Our Master strategy

[DeepO]

I'd like to start a discussion on how we are planning to win this thing. For the moment, we're playing as average as we can, consolidating power, but not really with a mission. While the time is right for such a break, we need some kind of larger strategic plan, we need larger goals. We're too much reacting to others, instead of acting on our own.

1. next 20 or so turns
I think everybody agrees that this is a period of trying to improve our shieldproduction, and do some necessary city builds. First priority is getting Hoover and having factories everywhere, and RR all our land. After that, some hospitals would be nice, but I don't consider going for the Sanitation a priority, we have other techs that are more important. This is obvious, so no need to discuss this stage.

2. Tech hogs, or upgrade money?
We basically have 2 options right now. We are moderate in shield production, but this will decline over time as 3 teams have more land then we do. We're still very good at commerce production, but also this advantage is going to deminish quickly if ND and GoW are growing. The basic question I have is we are going to save money for upgrades (our pikes, spears and cats), or race ahead in tech and try to gain a serious advantage over our competitors, using this to build superior troops.

I think we need something in between, if only because in the near future, we're going to run out of things to build in our core cities. Right now, the best landunit we can build is a pike, which costs too much to upgrade to an inf. We will probably have infs soon (let's hope we have rubber), but can't hold off on our tech pace for ever. Already, we have 2 cities which are close to completing their last building (Tempest (bank in 4) and Hurricane(starting bank next turn)), it would be best to have them building something useful while we wait.

3. Our defense
We will need infs in our cities, and a large navy for defense after marines, this is also something that has been more or less agreed on. When we will get this navy is something else, and how quickly we get to combustion for destroyers is also still open for discussion. I'd rather start early on this, we have loads of harbor cities, but not good production in them. And we're looking at some 50 or more boats for an adequate defense.

One thing to consider: If we get to ToE and thus electronics, radio is not far off. Civil defenses and radar towers will be a lot more important in this game then in any other I ever played. I would take the gamble, go for industrialisation first (either ourselves, or traded for rep. parts), and shoot straight for radio. 4800 beakers means some 8 non-deficit turns of research. We should definately have this well in time before anybody gets marines and is able to attack us. It is a detour, though, and not useful when playing offensively.

4. How to win
This has puzzled me for some time now. SS victory is something that I think will be very hard to achieve because we would be hit by multiple nukes before we get close enough. But, more importantly, we will most likely don't have all the required resources, and I doubt someone is going to willingly trade them to us.

So, we have to conquering in the near future. The ideal time for this would be on the event of marines, especially if it would be before others can get tanks. At that time, we would still have a decent production (if we get Hoover and factories everywhere), and have a shot at taking someone down. I don't see us invading someone on our own, but there is a good chance we can get GoW to join the fun, they know they can't win either if they stay put. Primary target is of course Lego, but if we would get GoW to join us, ND would suit fine as well. And if that doesn't work, we invade Vox for all I care.

For this, we need a couple of things. First of all, a navy worthy the name (but this we will need anyway for our defense). Secondly, a vast army, preferably combined arms. Third, security on our home land, also once our troops are over seas. Fourth, reinforcement capabilities. Fifth a good fall back plan should things turn sour.

We missed a lot of these planning stages when going to Bob last time, so please let's not make the same mistake. We need overwhelming force, planned attack plans, fall back plans, and especially decent reinforcements instead of pushing every unit we could lay our hands on in a boat, and ship it over the water. Also, we need clear objectives this time. No reaction to the enemy, but taking the incentive in our own hands.

One of those objectives would for me be to hamper the other as much as possible, by cutting lux, RRs, resources, anything we can lay our hands on. In this context, RP is going to be invaluable to us, but we might need some explorers of our own as well. If any of our cities run dry on things to build, we can start replacing knights and MIs on our sea wall with explorers. If we can disrupt our enemy's reinforcements from reaching us for only 1 turn, it could turn a war.

How to get those massive troops is something else. I don't see how we can upgrade our way into a modern army. We will have to build a lot of things ourselves. My choice would be to be moderate in research after industrialisation, not pushing limits too hard, and try to sell all we can to ND and GoW. My feeling is that upgrade money has to come from others while we try to stay ahead in tech. It can be done in our current situation, but will require some diplo effort. Further, mobilisation will certainly work well for us, especially if we can mask it from other teams.

Is there any other way of winning then invading someone else? I don't see how. Are we going to win doing this? I'm not sure... I don't think so. But at least we can go out with a boom.

DeepO

[Cort Haus]

Good work on this analysis, DeepO. I will again ponder this question, though it hurts every time I do.

A major problem we face is the fact that #2 is devoted to #1. While this is the case, the best we can honestly hope for is to have some fun teaming up with GoW for a Blaze-of-Death exit against ND-Lego.

To have any chance of winning you have to stay in the game, though. What did you have in mind when you said we're reacting to others, not acting on our own? The GAUL initiative, futile as it turned out, was a genuine attempt to export our policy on Lego. We've maximised our strengths and gone for key wonders to hold Lego back and give ourselves a chance, and are the only team genuinely blocking (heh) Lego.

As our only military option is an alliance with GoW against ND-Lego, that is no more a winning strategy than just trying to stay in the game at #4 and hope that #1 and #2 eventually come to blows.

[DeepO]

CH, I was not talking about reacting on a global stage, but more on a military one. We have to take initiative if we want to gain from a war. We have to plan for one, very precisely doing what we can to get our objectives, and act accordingly. The Bobian war was one of "Oops, something happened, let's see how we can try to remedy it with what we currently have. " There was no master plan to follow, so also too few available resources. That was actually decided some 10-15 turns before the war.

All I want to do is to be able to get something on the road early enough, so we don't run into the same problem. Right now, I don't know who we're going to attack, but an invasion is necessary IMO. And that means our infrastructure has to copy that as well. For one thing, I don't see us building a lot of stock exchanges, if we can build units as well.

I would also like to get some idea on how our tech plan is going to be. Sure, we want to deal with others and gain from that, but not too much either. Radio would seem perfect for this, as we can tell everybody we're recuperating from the deficit spending, and instead of hording cash, we gain one more tech advantage over them. Nobody can detect that.

Also, what are our priorities after the obvious ones? We don't really need policestations (except for WoC perhaps), we don't need espionage if we're going for a classical invasion. We will need marines for attack, tanks for second wave attack, and bombers for defense and attack. Airports can be used for immediate reinforcements, but as long as we have enough transports we don't need those. Stuff like that... are we going to be bomber heavy on invasion, or do it the marine way? I figure we're going to need a massive navy anyhow, but we need to do this before the other party has (lots of) bombers: with an escort of 12 destroyers, it will be extremely hard for any power to attack a transport without bombers, as their picket lines are simply not able to reach us en masse.

And you're right that GAUL was a good attempt, and I see still some possibilities here. The main thing is, we need one good, aggressive partner. If that's GoW, fine. If that's ND fine. I would even side with the devil and partner with Lego if we have to. We can't do it alone. We don't need 3 partners though, if we are totally focused on war, we still have enough power and skill to defeat, or at least severly hamper anyone, even Lego, in a 1 on 1. But we have to be prepared, and we have to take the initiative. And get our behinds covered, so we keep our home free from invaders.

DeepO