Grand Strategy: The Road to Victory

[Tall Stranger]

I am starting this thread at Theseus's suggestion as a way of trying to elicit high-level strategic thought to guide overall game play. The intent here is to think through how we envision winning this game. I am aware of the irony of starting this thread at a time when our position looks, shall we say, challenging. In my view, all the more reason to think this through.

In my view, before we can develop our strategy, we have to assess the situation and strategy of our opponents. Here is my estimate, which is really based on little more than hunches and the map.

Opponents' Assessment:

Lego:

Strengths: Their power is rising rapidly, they still have not had their GA, they have a pliant vassel state, and they have a continent to themselves.
Weaknesses: Everyone knows that, if left unchecked, they can't be beat. Ability to get troops to Bob is limited.
Apparent strategy: Keep GS, ND and GoW in constant conflict, sapping their strength.

GoW:

Strengths: In their GA, currently appear to have backing of Lego, possess great opportunity to backstab ND.
Weaknesses: Smaller and more spread out than ND, meaning their long-term production capability is questionable.
Apparent strategy: Control as much of Bob as possible, and develop military power. Get the game down to 3 big players, side with one of them to eliminate the other, and have a battle royal to determine the winner.

ND:

Strengths: In their GA, control most of the territory on Bob.
Weaknesses: It seems that both Lego and GoW want to see them eliminated as a power. The reason for GoW wanting this is obvious. Not clear why Lego would support such a move.
Apparent strategy: Drive RP and GS from Bob while limiting GoW territorial increases. Would not be surprised if ND was considering backstabbing GoW.

With that in mind, let me lay out what I see as our 3 strategic goals.

1. Retain a foothold on Bob, preferably enough to develop a core of productive cities there. (Wasn’t there some talk of moving our Palace there?)

2. Eliminate either GoW or ND as a major power and expand our Bobian holdings at the loser’s expense.

3. Convince whomever remains on Bob that Lego must be the next target. (This will be VERY challenging.) From there, who knows? My guess is that the ultimate winner will be determined by war.

Please keep in mind that much of this is speculative. Any changes/ thoughts/ criticisms/ firebombs are welcome. If these are in fact our goals, I have some ideas on specific tasks we need to complete in the short-term to achieve them.

Thoughts?

[Theseus]

Hmmm... How will we WIN??

Didn't we determine a looong time ago that we NEED a piece 'o Bob? Not to mention the luxuries, and now, it turns out, saltpeter.

Look at the mini-map... who is the impediment?

ND, that's who.

We need GoW to backstab.

[Tall Stranger]

Originally posted by Theseus
Hmmm... How will we WIN??

Well, aren't you picky? You expect me to tell you how we win? The thread is only titled "Road To Victory" after all.

Didn't we determine a looong time ago that we NEED a piece 'o Bob? Not to mention the luxuries, and now, it turns out, saltpeter.

While I was not here a loooong time ago, I should hope you all had determined this a while back.

The reason I put this in was because there has been some talk of withdrawing to Stormia. I think that is a bad idea, and must be our last resort. Virtually any deal we can cut with GoW would be preferrable.

Look at the mini-map... who is the impediment?

ND, that's who.

We need GoW to backstab.

Absolutely. The goal must be to break ND's power and turn this into a 3 man game. We also have to do it quickly, before Lego can get involved. Reason: if you're GoW, would you rather have your final adversary be Lego, who is still waiting to trigger its GA, or us?

That's my thought process, anyway.

[Theseus]

Great minds think alike!!

[zeit]

Hi everyone!

I've been creeping around for some time- but my participation has been at zero level mostly due to RL concerns, especially my academic year starting, which involved me running around chasing Uni administration staff...

Anyhow, that's not what's important now, obviously.
The **** really hit the fan here, and it calls for dire actions, from looking at the map, the only real card we have right now is our chance to hit GoW- we have to use it to the fullest. Striking a deal with GoW is our only alternative if we want a chunk of Bob, and also has some potential of getting more than that (tech, for example). Lego does really care about GoW, nor the future of any certain nation, protracting this conflict is their main goal, and they now that given the current situation, any alliance between ND and GoW would not hold out for long.

I mean, look at the map- ND is in the prefect position to crush GoW after RP and GS is driven off- will they pass this opportunity? I don't think so, and I think Lego does not as well. They figure out that standing by GoW side is they're best bet- if war breaks out between the two allies, there's every reason to think Lego would help GoW, but only to the extent of maintaining the balance, so the war is kept off-Legoland, and neither sides gains the upper hand...

Gaining GoW as as "ally" in our struggle to prevent Bob from becoming 2.5 continent- which cannot threaten Lego, means preventing a guaranteed blockhead victory...

RP in former Estonia, GoW, GS AND ND in Bob as a first step, minus ND in the second, and enough balances and common interests gives us a chance to maintain some threat on Lego, and perhaps turn it in the future into an assault- we can't do that without the techs, and not while we're fighting 2.5 teams.

In short- I'd say a deal with GoW, in which we carve up Bob, including building a common strategy with regards to the handling of the blockhead threat in the way to go. A limited alliance with GoW sure sounds crazy, but it seems like our last chance of winning this game (and could also be real fun!).

[DeepO]

There in my mind only 2 possibilities, either we get a deal with GoW to deal with ND (and seeing as I won't ever trust them again, that will be difficult), or we slice up GoW. ND is, on our own, not realistic to hurt, Lego is for the moment out of the picture, and a full retreat to Stormia, taking RP with us would leave us in the last position after Rp and Vox. No way to win once that is done...

DeepO

[Theseus]

RP is willing to burn themselves out...

There is an answer here, I feel it.

(Anyone familiar with the Dorsai series by Gordon Dickson... "intuitive logic"... swear to god, my heart is racing, there IS an answer... )

[Cort Haus]

I'm not sure I see 'slicing up GoW' to be a realistic option. We'd soon be at war with 3 civs in GA and unlikely to hold both GoW land and the south. No way do I want to do this.

If we are to get a deal with GoW we will not only need to relocate RP, but also to get GoW and RP to drop their grudge-ventdettas against each other, and hopefully for GoW to permit RP to return to Spain some way down the road, and for us to get resources in S. Bob.

On the other hand, we can enable GoW to fullfill their current contract far easier than they could by fighting us in the south, and we offer better long-term prospects for their position on Bob.

Finally, while we have been applying carrot-and-stick to GoW to persuade them to consider joining us, maybe they've been doing a similar thing to get us to join them. Aggie said that he thought we might respond like this - so maybe both GS and GoW are presenting each other with unpallatable alternatives to future co-operation.

Also, they were impressed with the appearance of two RP cities on Stormia. That may have worked a treat for us. Instead of raising a storm about teleportation, it was seen as a gesture-of-possibility, a first step of relocation, and a carrot for GoW.

If we can't get the GoW deal then I'm not convinced we should attack them unless we counter-threaten Lego. RP's offer of declaring war against Lego might only help Lego happiness short-term, but I can't yet agree with criticism of the longer-term WW goals as being bad for the game. It's been said that a broken state should not be able to inflict such damage on great powers but why not?

The mighty Soviet Union was broken by tiny Afghanistan. The mighty USA suffered severe WW fighting in tiny Vietnam. Let's not even talk about WW and Iraq.

So unless persuaded otherwise, I don't see RP's suggestion as 'bang out of order' at all. In fact I see it as an essential counter-threat to Lego. Lego held their turn while they discussed and made their decision - I doubt anyone begrudges them that - but it shows that it wasn't an easy step for them to take. A counter threat such as we could issue thanks to RP might wibble a few Lego hearts.

The last resort option would be the 'Dunkirk' scenario, which Arrian has outlined. I don't think this is as bad as some have reacted to it - by keeping our heads down we could come back into the game in the industrial era - particularly with RP researching for us in their new peaceful home. After all, those who ran away at Dunkirk came back another day with a mighty ally...

[Theseus]

Bluto / Theseus: What?! Over? Did you say over? NOTHING is over until WE decide it is! Was it over when the Lux bombed Arashi? HELL, NO!

Otter / Sir Ralph: Lux?

Boon / Arrian: Forget it, he's rolling.

Bluto / Theseus: It ain't over now! For when the goin' gets tough,..............the tough get going! Who's with me!? LET'S GO!
C'MON! GOOOOOOOOOOOO!

[Theseus]

I've gotta eat... let me say this though: We have taken a tremendous blow, but we are still a vicious beast in this game.

Our production power is still there, we still have a daunting military, and damnit, let's turn our eyes to the advantage of the limited size of Stormia... we can make ourselves untouchable!

Anybody ever seen a pissed off mink? (I'm being serious)

And when the time comes, WE get to play our balance-of-power games.

[Theseus]

Macro thoughts:

We now need FOUR things to win this game:

1) We still need more land, addressing sheer production power and also where to put RP if they are allowed to survive.

2) Clarity with RP... either they are vassals or they die.

3) Time to build infrastructure.

4) A diminuation of Lego's capabilities.

Before getting to solutions, let us start with the above premise... any disagreements?

[Cort Haus]

This is a fine summary, and I agree with all of it. You soon caught up with the flurries of the last coupla days

The gaining land has to come later unless we can win it diplomatically. We must continue with the policy of sea-wall, economic & cultural builds, and pumping our pop. We don't have the military for any adventure right now (except helping GoW & ND take Pamp quickly so those two can get started on Lego )

Ideally we need to assess the tech level of Lego, and how far away they are from rails. Then we'll know how long the rest of us have got to do something about it. If there is little time, then all teams should target Lego. If there is still plenty of time, perhaps supporting ND against GoW (and probably Lego), then allying with Lego against ND would give us better chance of the land we need in Bob.

On RP, the time must be very close to read the riot act. They're just an administrative pain-in-the-butt at the moment, but worse than that they could realistically blow any chances we have of winning. Although I'd love to see them researching up there and getting a GA - I can't see them playing ball while BF is on that team. Our enemies are easier to deal with diplomatically with than those guys atm.

[Theseus]

A reminder to us all:

This game, this PTWDG, is brand new, virgin territory.

Imagine: Lego stakes out a compelling lead. Whoever the remaining powers are, both great and small, finally realize that Lego is the threat that cannot be ignored... but they have rails, and Rifles/Infantry.

Then come Marines.

And further tech development, and everything else that that entails: sea power, air power, beach heads... Shifting alliances. PRODUCTION POWER.

The Great War... the War to End All Wars.

World War II.

The Cold War... and its end.

This game is FAR from over. vondrack et al have been Machiavellian and masterful thus far, but DAMN, there is a ways to go. Lego's successes will be their downfall.

(My god... the more I think about it, the more I feel the sweep of history, the complexity, and the ever-shifting shores. I love this game.)

[Tall Stranger]

Theseus, I agree with all your points. I'd hate to lose a vassel state, but a disloyal/ difficult/ unreliable vassel is worse than none at all. Unless RP gets its act together, we may have no choice but to destroy them. (Too bad, since it would be fabulous to be able to harness their GA.) The irony of us riding to RP's rescue, fighting a brutal war to protect them, only to destroy them ourselves is not lost on me.

Based on the PR Chat thread, it seems like we see two potential futures for the game:

1. Lego and GoW team up against ND.

2. ND and GoW team up against Lego.

Problem is that we have good reason to suspect both of these contingencies. The fact that Lego came to GoW's rescue so quickly and GoW turned down our peace feelers supports 1). The basic fact that Lego is looking like the world's powerhouse supports 2).

Based on this assessment, it seems clear that we need to:

A. Finalize RP's status: if they can remain loyal, great. If not, we destroy them and use the cities on Bob as bargaining chips with ND.

B. Try to get more info from ND about what they are expecting, and specifically if they are having conversations with GoW about a Lego invasion.

C. Draw up contingency plans for both a Lego + GoW vs. ND war and a ND+Gow vs. Lego war. What can we offer? What do we need? How can we play both sides off each other?

[Theseus]

Has everyone seen Hot_Enamel's and Tiberius' additions to the "On the Utility and Use of Marines" thread in the Strat forum re one of their PBEMs?

It ain;t over till the Marines sing.

This ain't over. People make mistakes (... like us!), and in DGs, I think, the tides of sentiment can certainly change!

Kudos to H_E.