Yurn 143, 270AD

[notyoueither]

mi 4 1 1 of Barca moves 7. Attacks elite rider at 4. Defeated. Rider at 1 pip
mi 4 1 1 of Barca moves 7. Attacks elite rider at 4. Defeated.
mi 4 1 1 of Barca moves 7. Attacks elite rider at 4. Wins, 3 pips damage taken. One tough rider


8c, 2 worker 4 of our wounded mi
2 riders 4 7 of us (2/5, 3/5)

[notyoueither]

I am reading that the consensus is to push forward to take advantage of the weakened condition of the riders and ansars, and to force the disbandment/recapture of the cats and workers.

We have 2 k landing, plus 6 from the reserve that can make it to be in position to support us if we advance. Add 4 reg mis to that.

We can advance with 4p, 4mi, and 2 to 4k. We could take the workers in with us, and have a road in/out next turn if we wish.

We can land 2 k on the road 9 of Murcia. That may force the abandonment of Murcia and Essigbar next turn. That is if we assume that they have no reserve left in the area (the 3 healthy ansars are too far away to intervene).

If we push, we should advise RP to move on Alamo. Yes?

[notyoueither]

Chat with Togas re the situation:

Session Start: Mon Sep 22 22:01:01 2003
Session Ident: TogasMNF
[22:01] *nye* some news, when you have a moment
[22:03] *TogasMNF* commercial
[22:04] *TogasMNF* go ahead and type it into channel, I'll get it shortly
[22:04] *nye* ok. bad news. nd and gow coverged on a stack of our advancing in the south last turn
[22:04] *nye* our losses are 8 kn, 3 p, 8 cats
[22:05] *nye* we do not know their losses, but we can see 9 wonded ansars/riders
[22:06] *nye* the debate now is whether to press ahead to take advantage of what must be their weakened state, and force the disbandment of the cats...
[22:06] *nye* or, pull back
[22:06] *TogasMNF* what can we do?
[22:07] *nye* the 11 pike/kn were truely fortified, btw. with cat support, so their losses may be large
[22:07] *nye* well, how much can be in alamo?
[22:07] *TogasMNF* I wish we knew
[22:07] *nye* we can see 3 wounded riders, 1 not wounded
[22:08] *nye* we have killed 1 rider to this point in our turn
[22:08] *nye* we will most likely kill another
[22:08] *TogasMNF*
[22:08] *nye* that would leave 9 less losses
[22:09] *TogasMNF* have someone work out the math for how many 4 attack units it takes to destroy your fort stack (with cats)
[22:09] *nye* we are wondering how much you would like to risk?
[22:09] *TogasMNF* we're willing to risk quite a bit, I just wish we had more in range
[22:09] *TogasMNF* my guys are itching to fight
[22:09] *nye* one moment
[22:10] *TogasMNF* brb
[22:14] *nye* The c's are catapults, right?
[22:14] *nye* IIRC the knights and pikes were all fortified. According to the stack calculator, the average losses expected from attacking our stack with (up to) 25 riders/ansars are 10.2 losses from each side. We did worse than that, obviously since we lost all our units (we had a 30% chance that one or more would survive against 25 attackers). The subset of trials where we lose all our units, the attackers lose 8.9 on average (9 being the single most likely). It is 90% likely they lost between 4 and 12 units and 99% certain that they had between 3 and 13 casualties.
[22:14] *nye* I think it is fair to say that barring pretty good luck for us (aside from losing all those units that is) we came off second best in this battle., despite having better than 50-50 odds in each individual fight.
[22:14] *nye* Annoyingly, they managed to get most of their wounded units to safety, so we can't even pick those off to even up the odds.
[22:14] *nye* We know of 11 of their units out of the anticipated 25 or so, so 14 are unaccounted for. We have about a 0.6% chance that we killed 14 units, so lets not count on that. They likely have another 5 or so riders/ansars guarding the GoW southern cities (while ND have probably flooded their taking with defenders by now).
[22:14] *nye* ... posted by vulture
[22:15] *nye* so... 14 ansars, plus 13 riders... 27
[22:15] *nye* 10 plus lost.
[22:16] *nye* 2 more for us to kill
[22:16] *nye* 6 wounded ansars and 2 wounded riders visible
[22:16] *nye* 3 unwounded ansars
[22:16] *nye* that would be 23
[22:16] *nye* +
[22:17] *TogasMNF* back
[22:17] *nye* review
[22:17] *nye* brb
[22:18] *TogasMNF* gotcha
[22:19] *Togas* that's one hell of a fight
[22:19] *Togas* would leave very few GoW Riders left
[22:19] *Togas* however, ND would have done most of the damage
[22:19] *Togas* taken most of the losses, since they act first
[22:21] *Togas* if we can somehow take Alamo, we can move most of our defenders there ... however, we would then be split between Pampl and Alamo
[22:22] *nye* yes
[22:22] *Togas* we have 3 inf, 4 knights in range
[22:22] *Togas* I wish we'd moved more last turn
[22:23] *nye* oh. that is not enough.
[22:23] *Togas* this next turn we could move all our inf onto mountain top, but that gives them another turn to fortify alamo
[22:24] *nye* yeah. i am realising that we move, they move, then you move
[22:25] *nye* plus the 2 elite wounded on roads can make it back there
[22:28] *Togas* 7 4-attack units vs Alamo ... bad odds?
[22:29] *nye* not good enough, if they have 5 or 6 units there
[22:29] *nye* walls on hills
[22:29] *Togas* yuck
[22:29] *nye* 6 def
[22:32] *nye* i know this sucks, but we likely won;t finish before tomorrow pm
[22:32] *nye* no one is on while i am on
[22:32] *Togas* gotcha
[22:32] *Togas* just keep us informed.
[22:32] *nye* ok
[22:32] *Togas* my guys need to know your estimate on how many dead, how many may be in the theatre, and let us know what we can do to help
[22:33] *Togas* maybe we can cut the supply lines to the north
[22:33] *nye* ok. will post this log, now

[notyoueither]

I really need input here. I am not going to play the turn this evening. That is a huge delay, and that is not OK, but this is a huge turn, potentially.

Maybe it would be better if a Euro took over playing, since it seems I am not around when the majority of the others are.

[Harovan]

I have a very small window where I can really play. That's somewhere between 7pm and 10pm GMT during the week. Not always, though. More time at weekends.

[OPD]

HAve you dropped the troops next to Murcia yet?

Edit - also if we do want to move the 6 knights against the Alamo we should put them NE of Pamp so as not to be seen by the ND unit on the Mountain, then we could do with moving pikes nearer to the Alamo so they could be in the city if we do take it. Depending on how well defended the stack of catapults in it'll be probably better if we rather than RP have control of Alamo.

[vulture]

I probably shouldn't keep scratching at the wound, but did you know that 1 more pike would have given us a 50-50 chance of surviving the attack (and keeping the catapults and settler) while 2 more would have given us 75% and an average of 13 dead riders/ansars.

Just goes to show how dramatic the effect of overwhelming odds can be - they have a 35.5% chance of winning each battle, and on average kill 11 defenders while losing 9 attackers. Just two more defenders would have been enough to almost wipe the effect out.

C'est la vie. I don't think anyone was expecting them to be able to hit us with that many units at the same time.

[DeepO]

just some comments from Thailand: I think it is perfect. Please kepe in mind that the first reason for that stack was to keep their forces in the South. Undoubtedbly, they lost a great deal of forces in that attack, which is perfect... take what you can (especially if workers or cats are in range), otherwise retreat, heal, and get back. The longer the fight takes in the South, the more troops we'll have to invade the North with. And that's the goal, not the South.

In short: my general guess would be: take it slowly, conserve strength, and hit them once the odds are truelly overwhelming in our favour. Right now, that doesn't seem to be the case, so play it slowly. Too bad the settler didn't settle, though, it would have made a nice base of operations.

DeepO

[Arrian]

Maybe RP should take a shot at The Alamo with their Knights (hopefully they will retreat if damaged, and end their turn on the mountain 9 of Alamo) and med infs (only if the knights do reasonably well).

Can we move our knights into position such that we can follow that attack on the Alamo? Probably not, huh?

-Arrian

[OPD]

Originally posted by Arrian

Can we move our knights into position such that we can follow that attack on the Alamo? Probably not, huh?

-Arrian

the six knights by New Madrid can be moved to attack the Alamo next turn

it's a shame we won't be able to see if they move riders to cover the catpults untill after RP's turn.

[vulture]

To correct my earlier mistake - ND come before GoW in the turn order, so it is likely that ND took the bulk of the casualties. GoW certainly finished the attack off (they have the captured units) - three of their riders won (the three elite injured riders, one of which was killed). It is possible that the rider 223 of Pamplona also did, and was uninjured and moved back onto its hill. I can't see any town their riders could have come from, attacked the stack, and made it back into the FoW (as it stands with us retaking the hill). That means there were only 3 or 4 units left to attack when GoW's turn came around (probably injured), so it is likely they only lost 1 rider, while ND lost 8 Ansars doing the hard part of the fighting. So I'd guess there are 5-6 healthy riders from the initial invasion force unaccounted for, plus whatever they've managed to bring in through ND along the roads. I'd guess that most of them are in Alamo (with them relying on their 3 move units to hit any stacks threatening towns further south). That looks like too much of a job for RP to go after this turn. Having RP attack this turn, with us attacking the following turn is a recipe for suicide IMHO. One large attack is vastly more effective than two smaller attacks, especially in cities with barracks (which they've had time to rush by now).

EDIT: corrected town name...

[OPD]

Ahhh #@£, are you saying that all units heal at the end of the turn and not at the beginning of each teams go?

If so then I didn't realize this, and it kinda sucks too, as we won't be able to co-ordinate an attack without either healing or a reaction after we move.

[vulture]

No, AIUI units heal at the beginning of the appropriate team's turn. I think I misunderstood the plans. Our knights can get to Pamplona 7 this turn (although may be exposed to another swarm of Ansars) - ND and GoW play their turns, RP attack Alamo and then we attack Alamo (leaving our knights on the plains at Alamo 6?). Is that the general idea? Or , more sensibly, leave the knights at Pamplona 9, out of sight of ND/GoW units (unless they move to Pamplona 2 or cross the river to attack Pamplona), where they can still do the same attack.

Hmmm, we have to assume we are facing 6 healthy riders fortified on a hill behind walls, plus the two injured elites which will be unfortified. And possibly reinforcements. How many units can the combined RP and GS forces bring to bear?

[OPD]

Originally posted by vulture
No, AIUI units heal at the beginning of the appropriate team's turn

cool

I think I misunderstood the plans. Our knights can get to Pamplona 7 this turn (although may be exposed to another swarm of Ansars) - ND and GoW play their turns, RP attack Alamo and then we attack Alamo (leaving our knights on the plains at Alamo 6?). Is that the general idea? Or , more sensibly, leave the knights at Pamplona 9, out of sight of ND/GoW units (unless they move to Pamplona 2 or cross the river to attack Pamplona), where they can still do the same attack.

yeah this is what I think we should do or at least have the possibility of doing next turn depending on what the enemy does.

Also moving pikes into position to move into the city should we want to attack and take it.

Hmmm, we have to assume we are facing 6 healthy riders fortified on a hill behind walls, plus the two injured elites which will be unfortified. And possibly reinforcements. How many units can the combined RP and GS forces bring to bear?

we can have 6 knights, RP can have 3 MI's and 4 knights, there is a possibility that GoW will move units out of Alamo to defend their (previously our) cat/worker stack, if we threaten it by moving four knights along with pikes and MI adjacent to the stack.

[OPD]

I think we should try and cover the 4 knights that will be inreach of the cats as best we can. Not only are the cats a loss of 160 shields of units for us but a 160 sheild gain for them. They'll want to keep hold of them. If we can take back the stack next turn we'll want to be able to guard the injured knights and retreating cats as best we can.