Turn 130, 30 AD

[Aeson]

We should move the 3 Knights into Toledo so they can fortify next turn. ND's single Med Inf isn't worth dropping our defense odds for those three Knights from 67% to 60% if GoW decides to attack.

[Aeson]

Also, how about rushing out a Worker (or perhaps even a Settler) from Toledo?

[asleepathewheel]

Yeah, I think we can worry about that MI after the riders are dispatched. Maybe he is where the riders want to be.

OTOH, we could take him out soon, thinking that war with GoW won't start for another 2 turns. That way, ND won't know when we are coming for them.

[nbarclay]

If ND sees knights in Toledo, they'll likely go after Bilbao instead, and that would be a lot harder to stop than an attack on Toledo. So the question is, how much is improving our odds of hanging onto Bilbao worth to us.

Regarding rushing a worker or settler in Toledo, I'd rather wait. Right now we're running a three-food surplus, and we'd actually lose 1gpt of income (from 4 to 3 after corruption) if we reduce the population in addition to the cost of the rush itself, so there's no need to be in a hurry.

[Aeson]

I'd say the improved odds on the Knights is more important than Bilbao. Bilbao is gone if GoW decides to attack, and isn't worth anything near a Knight to our cause at this point. 7% x 3 Knights would be worth roughly a third of a Knight. Whether it actually makes a difference or not is up to the RNG of course.

[Theseus]

Originally posted by nbarclay
Nine knights, not three. The lead units of our second wave can unload in our new city and barely make it into Toledo in the same turn.

Ohhh, yeah... the tide turns.

[nbarclay]

What do people think of using our latest settler to build a city at Dissidentville 6-6 next turn? Long-term, we may want to disband that city and leave the others as they are with an eye toward picking up Sanitation from RP or Lego, or we could but in the meantime, it would be another place to produce troops. (The more I think about it, the more I doubt that we'll want to build down Dissidentville from troop-production mode just to move it one tile.)

[nbarclay]

I'm going ahead and upgrade our last regular WC in the south and Grog on Wheels to knights unless someone objects in the next few minutes.

[notyoueither]

Messages to ND and GoW can be sent anytime.

[nbarclay]

If GoW looks like they're going to back down from fighting us, I think we need to run a bluff in Toledo with just a couple pikes and maybe a MedInf and move the bulk of our forces to Pamplona 9, and then plan on hitting Leon the turn after that, at least unless ND loses a large percentage of its Ansars fighting for Zaragoza. We're going to have to free up enough of the RP forces ND has tied down right now for RP to be able to put up a fight against GoW.

[notyoueither]

I don't think it is safe to assume that GoW will not attack us. I have a feeling, but I do not know if I would bet Toledo and newMadrid on it.

Moving all to Toledo 2 2 works.

[nbarclay]

Do you want me to send the GoW one, or should one of our ambassadors do it? I'm thinking it would be better to have an ambassador (or you, NYE) actually send the message, but I'll send it if you want me to.

[notyoueither]

I can send the messages.

[nbarclay]

Just to be clear, I was thinking ahead to next turn. Right now I have three knights in Toledo and most of our forces at Toledo 2-2. From there, they can reach either Toledo or Pamplona 9 next turn. (If we have our knights at Pamplona 9, I'd like to have some pikes and cats there to protect them in case ND tries to strike at Pamplona and decides our knights are a better target.) But if GoW is in striking distance of Toledo, we need to focus our forces on protecting it.

[notyoueither]

Knights showing in Toledo may very well drive GoW off. That is good. For next turn? I think that if GoW do not back down it is war, and we better act like it.