Screenshots from RP (with unit distributions)

[asleepathewheel]

Originally posted by DeepO
One comment from me: They should not declare war on ND, let ND attack them instead. nye's testing seems to indicate they will not get a negative WW bonus if they attack themselves...

DeepO

too late, I believe.....

[DeepO]

Too bad...

DeepO

[Shiber]

In-game, they are all still in peace.

[asleepathewheel]

Originally posted by Shiber
In-game, they are all still in peace.

huh, well thats good they changed their mind

[Shiber]

[Arrian]

Damn. RP is in deep and serious ****. It would be worse if GoW wasn't pussyfooting around in the East.

If we're going to save them, we gotta get a move on!

-Arrian

[vulture]

Revenge of the combat calculator:

RP stacks everthing in the east into Toledo (giving them by my reckoning 6 vet pikes, 3 regular pikes, 5 vert MI, 1 reg MI), all fortified. Toledo completes walls next turn, and gets to size 7 (by adding a worker if nescessary). As far as I can seem, they're not on a hill and GoW wouldn't have to attack over a river, so total defense of a fortified pike would be 6.0 (assuming the city walls bug is still with us). GoW have 13 vet riders and 1 elite. Assume they put them all in one stack and go for Toledo.

Result: GoW lose 4.4 riders, RP lose 4.8 units (mostly pikes), 4.8 riders retear on 1 hp. That leaves GoW with only 4-5 riders with 2-5 hp to continue the attack, and most of them will be on 2 or 3 I would think. RP can hold Toledo.

They have to run the risk of GoW by-passing Toledo and going for New Madrid, but we can get out forces there to defend it before GoW can reach it I think.

Tell RP to get off those mountains and into the town. They can be bypassed on that mountain, and will lose Toledo easily if they stay there. And they need to go now, before GoW can run up and hit the retreating stack in the open. Right now they are giving GoW the chance to outnumber their defences wherever they want.

[vulture]

dp

[DeepO]

vulture, I think they are already heading for Toledo. But thanks for the calculation! Could you do something similar to Pamplona in 2 turns, provided the Ansars get through unharmed?

DeepO

[vulture]

Do you mean Pamplona or Zaragoza? Z is going to be hard to defend, since although they can stack it with defenders, Leon is going to be left swinging in the wind, and ND can go straight through it to Pamplona. On the other hand, falling back to Pamplona means abandoning Santiago, Vigo, Leon and Zaragoza, which looks a lot like losing the war before a shot is fired. Leon is a bit of a detour for the attacking Ansars though, and the MI and pikes can't get there in a hurry. I'd be tempted to put one vet pike in Leon, so if ND do look south they see that the town is defended to an unknown extent, and dump the rest in Zaragoza. Then pray.

(As I've said before, if I'm ND, I don't go for Zaragoza, but head straight for the mountains next to Leon, gambling that RP can't do enough damage to the stack to stop it being a threat. From there it can threated Zaragoza, Pamplona, Leon and Salamanca, forcing RP to spread forces very thinly).

If ND do attack Zaragoza while it is defended, it will have 7 vet MI, 6 vet pike, 1 elite sword and 1 reg MI available. ND will have 10 vet ansats, 3 vet MI, 1 reg MI and 3 pikes (ignored for attacking). I can't factor in the effect of the ansars being able to cross the river and attack while the MI have to attack across the river. Assume city grows to size 7 and has working city walls, and isn't on hills.

Result: ND lose 5.6 units, RP 4.7. I'd guess that in reality the ND MI lose a bit more than that, so call it 6.0 and 4.4, which doesn't look too bad for RP. They do better here than in the east because they have more vet pikes, and fewer regular. I'd guess that ND lose 3-4 ansars, win with 3-4, and have roughly 3 retreat, although it isn't easy to break down the results of mixed composition forces without re-writing the code every time. MI results are about 50-50 (they are attacking across a river, so are facing defenses greater than their attack strengthm but will likely be attacking injured units to some extent). At the worse end of the likely results, ND lose 4 units while RP lose 8 or so, putting them in a big hole.

As long as ND can be induced to go for Zaragoza rather than bypassing it, it is going to be a close fight, and not a forgone conclusion for either side. But the same is true in the east as well (although slightly more in RPs favour I think). But they'll have to have good luck to hold out in both arenas.

More updates as new info becomes available from the battle front.

[DeepO]

Leon should be considered a loss, if ND goes for it, it's theirs. But from there it would be possible to take Pamplona, and that's not so good as it means the whol South is open.

Zaragoza: I thought it was better for RP, but it sounds like even if the odds favour them, they have a genuine chance of losing it. Not so good, they really need to keep that one...

DeepO

[Arrian]

RP stands a pretty good chance of getting gutted in a few turns. We just have to hope that ND either takes things really slow (buying RP and us some time), does something stupid, or just gets unlucky.

Pray to the RNG! (sorry Cardinal Ralphus, we soldiers are stubborn).

-Arrian

[Theseus]

That's why I'd like to see the GoW backstab, as well as our "Alhucemas Bay" assault.

[DeepO]

Alhucemas Bay? Please explain... never heard of it (at least not under this name)

DeepO

[Arrian]

I think he means my original battle plan - a large landing north of Bilbao (due east of ND's core), composed of Knights. An attempt to cut them up faster than they can react to.

Unfortunately, given how weak (and overstretched) RP is, we're going to have to do some serious work in the south first.

-Arrian