GSIA Special Investigation

[nbarclay]

The Gathering Storm Intelligence Agency has just completed an investigation into the relative economic strength of Gathering Storm and the world's other significant powers. (Vox, of course, is not considered significant for this purpose.)

GNP:

• GS: 362
  #2: 234
  #3: 203
  #4: 152
  #5: 146

Mfg. Goods:

• GS: 143
  #2: 100
  #3: 69
  #4: 67
  #5: 53

Productivity:

• GS: 484
  #2: 300
  #3: 250
  #4: 214
  #5: 190

Based on city sizes and number of mines just in the area we can see, it seems highly probable that Lego is in the #2 position, especially in manufactured goods. ND is clearly not in the #2 position. Even in their golden ages, GS can expect to have have production advantages over both ND and GoW, and a GS/RP combination could probably more or less hold its own against a ND/GoW combination in production if RP isn't hurt too badly in the opening turns of the war. Add to that the fact that we were strong relative to ND and GoW with each of them having upgraded a dozen or more horsemen to knight-class UUs but with our not having upgraded any of our horsemen or WCs yet, and we should be in pretty good shape.

[Arrian]

Add to that the fact that we were strong relative to ND and GoW with each of them having upgraded a dozen or more horsemen to knight-class UUs but with our not having upgraded any of our horsemen or WCs yet, and we should be in pretty good shape.

We did upgrade 3 horsemen to knights last turn, right?

Just checking.

-Arrian

[nbarclay]

Yes, three horsemen upgraded.

[DeepO]

It doesn't even surprise us anymore that we're as good as ND and GoW combined (not in their GAs)

DeepO

[alva]

Would it be helpfull if RP gave us their exact numbers?
-

They are still amazing though

[DeepO]

I was just checking screenshots again, to see what GAs would do to production on Bob. We know that GoW and ND have 67-69 shields from last count, and it looks like ND will get another 25-30 shields, GoW will get another ~35 shields in their GA. That still leaves them at around 100 shields, as opposed to our 143.

GNP is about the same: ND gets about 35 gpt extra, GoW gets about 45 gpt. But here the difference is of course greater, as those extra gpt are not taxed with upkeep for now. It will most likely double their income.

My point is that we should not overestimate the effect those GAs will have on ND and GoW, our GA was much more importantly at the time because of our larger population.

DeepO

[DeepO]

Ohw, and alva: I asked about their positions in chat, RP is 3rd on all counts for now.

DeepO

[nbarclay]

The GSIA just took a brief look at our 10 AD status to see how much of a boost ND got from their GA. The stats, with the numbers from the previous investigation in parentheses, are as follows:

GNP:
GS: 376 (362)
#2: 254 (234)
#3: 220 (203)

Mfg. Goods:
GS: 145 (143)
#2: 108 (100)
#3: 99 (69)

I'm not sure who's in second and who's in third right now between Lego and ND. Lego would have had to gain a lot very quickly to achieve the kinds of shifts shown in the #2 position, but the math for ND to get from 146 or 152 to 254 on GNP seems a bit iffy as well.

[DeepO]

Lego has the pyramids... if they gained e.g. 8 pop in their cities, and shifted citizens or improved a few tiles, they would get there. However...

ND not only has their GA, but also 4 new cities. The increase in GNP is too low for that, so I think they come from 203 to 254 in GNP, and from 69 to 108 in Goods. Which means Lego has to have lost both GNP and goods, which can be easily explained with a couple of settlers and workers.

Also, I'm not sure, but at the time of previous count, wasn't Lego in possession of the new Voxian capital? They lose 14 GNP, meaning some 5-7 population, or 1 city and 2 settlers (and perhaps an extra worker for good measure)

DeepO

[nbarclay]

Keep in mind that ND didn't have Vigo yet when we played our tyrn (which is where my statistics come from). Comparing our last turn with our next one may help us pin the numbers down more closely.

The new Voxian capital has been in Vox's hands for several turns now, as indicated by a red outline. And I seriously doubt that it had any significant size even when it was in Lego's hands. So no, a city transfer from Lego to Vox can't provide a viable explanation for a major drop in Lego GNP.

There is something else that might explain such a drop, though. Libraries only multiply commerce used for research, and marketplaces only multiply commerce used for cash. With a significant difference between the number of libraries/universities and the number of marketplaces/banks a civ has, a shift in the science slider can have a significant effect on GNP (and a shift in the luxury slider can almost always have such an effect).

[DeepO]

I thought GNP was the commerce a civ generates, including corruption? It doesn't change with a marketplace.

Note that for a drop of 14 commerce, you'd need at most 7 pop if all tiles are roaded... and a citysquare generates commerce as well. Losing a city would be the same as having one settler in transit...

DeepO

[nbarclay]

GNP figures are based on total commerce output after effects of buildings are counted but before losses to corruption are counted. I don't think buildings have any effect on the commerce that will ultimately be lost to corruption, though. In the GS3 PBEM game, my Ottoman Intelligence Agency has done numerous analyses of the same sort that the GSIA does, so I've gotten a very good feel for how moving the science slider can affect GNP. Being scientific and not having any neighbors on our home continent, my Ottomans built several libraries early, so I got lots of experience with the difference in GNP depending on where the science slider was set. (The science slider doesn't seem to make a difference for GS, though, because unless I'm mistaken, we have marketplaces and libraries in exactly the same cities.)

[DeepO]

Aha... didn't know that. I thought it was raw commerce.

Tuning the slider could be partly responsible, however why would Lego do that? Maybe they slowed down a little in research, as they have heared from us we will slow down... or maybe they lost 5 pop or so

DeepO