The War is on

[asleepathewheel]

Maybe it would be prudent to spy on Toledo to gauge how long they can hold. Granted, if their army is mysteriously outside the gates (?) then we won't be able to tell.

[Arrian]

I suspect investigating Toledo would cost ~80 gold. That's a horse -> knight upgrade or rushed city walls.

I'd like the info too, don't get me wrong, but this invasion is gonna be expensive.

-Arrian

[zeit]

Lets get the popcorn- the show is starting.

Act I- 'How about this?', or 'probing the enemy's deteremination': a small stack of marines from the west lands in a daring operation, behind enemy lines. In the east, the GoW's armored division, equiped with the new turbo-diesel engines (or just really agile horses...) is rushing towards Toledo (most likely). Fighting is yet to commence.

However, the obvious feast of disinformation which is soon to enuse (or already has) needs to be answered: The GS's journalists, renowned for their objectivity and strict ethics, will have to get down there and give the world a true picture of the warfare.

Granted, they will be escorted by military forces- after all, this is a warzone...

[notyoueither]

Woah!

This thing stinks to high heaven now.

Where are the legions of ND? 10 Riders?

2 to 1 this is a GoW set up of ND.

5 to 1 that the war never gets going due to ND GoW distrust of each other and lack of commitment.

100 to 1 that a whole load of galleys show up near North Stormia in a turn or 2

1000 to 1. This thing is one big farce to see what we would do.

[asleepathewheel]

What if thats all the forces they have? GoW has a crap economy, has had their capital tied up for centuries and they have no infrastructure built. ND is better but they probably left a lot at home, just in case.

More likely a backstab of ND than us, I would say, if anything.

A telling fact is that GoW hasn't really invited us in yet. One would think that if they were as outmanned as it appears, they would practically beg us to enter, giving us some assurances against ND. But they are a bit equivocal it seems to me....

Note to self: MPPs with GoW are worthless.

[notyoueither]

Note to self: there is more BS flying right now than during the running of the Bulls in Pamplona, and it aint all Spanish.

[Aeson]

It may just be underestimation on GoW's part. 10 Riders in SP and you can take out an AI the size of RP. It just doesn't work the same in MP. Think of some of the comments we've heard about Vox's Immortals (before they became mortal).

The other thing is trust between ND and GoW obviously. If one of them sells out on an invasion of RP, they are leaving themselves wide open. Especially true of GoW. Even without a backstab, one of them could tank and let the other take the full brunt of RP, and come out ahead once the NAP is done with.

Maybe they are both tanking...

I still think ND has something nasty (20+ Ansars with support) coming though, and GoW's Riders are more to 'calm' RP and draw them to the East.

[notyoueither]

Good thought. However, knowing these guys, and I know them a bit better being on the same team as some of them, I will beleive it when I see cities going rubble or switching hands with pop loss. Watch for the pop loss, they are not above gifting cities to make a war seem real. of course, they could have completed a worker/settler and then gifted as accepted...

Oh, these are lovely balls of yarn they weave for us to unravel.

[nbarclay]

It's hard to imagine GoW stripping their core completely bare and sending everything they have all the way across the continent to attack RP. It's not at all implausible that they have about 20 Riders and committed about half of them for the initial RP invasion.

The fact that the GoW/ND NAP ends when the RP invasion is over will probably discourage both sides from fully committing to the invasion. If that happens, we might be better off staying in builder mode and letting the Bobians wear each other down for the time being.

[notyoueither]

I agree. Get the military in order and ready to stike if one of two key cities fall. But nothing prior to that.

Zaragoza and Toledo. If one of them fall, we move.

[asleepathewheel]

Will GoW have the willpower to see this war to the end? If their riders break against toledo, do they seek way out, i.e. peace (not publicly declared) and then a build to strike ND?

I don't think they have the will to kill, regardless of their name. Once they have been whipped, they will quit and let ND handle the rest.


Why hasn't RP asked us to attack GoW? Isn't that an indication that something is going on? I know they made vague comments, but they could try a little harder, I would think, if they were desperate. I would.

[DeepO]

RP isn't desperate, but as far as I dare to guess, this war is real. The thing is, they don't prepare too well... look at Vox: we knew there were about 20 immortals to be expected, but instead, 14 of them arrived, one turn later than strictly possible. They first declared war, then started to position their troops. It wouldn't surprise me if ND is doing the same.

Of course the possible back stab scenarios are what is keeping large portions of their armies at home, but exactly how much army can we expect? We're strong to everyone else, and are likely to be quite above the 125% mark. We have 19(?) MIs, some 15 horses/WCs and a bunch of pikes. One rider is as good as 2 horses, and about 1.5 MI... meaning that the 10 riders of GoW are nearly enough to be 80% of our force. At most, I would expect them to have an additional 5 riders, and a couple of MIs just in case. Maximally, they have 20 riders, a couple of them are still in transit (galleys), and a couple of them are defending the home front.

ND, if they have more MIs, will probably have a better army, but still, don't expect miracles. They have been in a cold war for a long time, but part of building a huge army is having a sufficient economy to support it. If Bob has one big flaw, it's the lack of workers.

DeepO

[Arrian]

Zaragoza and Toledo. If one of them fall, we move.

I agree. Not before... even though I too think this war is real, I'm not sure about jumping in until it looks like GoW & ND are committed. I don't want to land and then see GoW & ND pull back, and leave us holding the bag.

-Arrian

[zeit]

The chat tonight can be quite significant- we definitely shouldn't say anything about our plan to join in yet. The outcome of this chat could very well decide the policy we take- a silent landing in the dark of night- or a well publicized "we're going in" sort of thing. If ND and GoW pose too much resistance, I suggest we make it a fact and just land- we won't have a better chance to make a foothold.

[Shiber]

Btw, if we do tell GoW and ND that we want to land, let's at least not tell them where. They might want to tip off RP in order to cause us to incur losses, and to be able to grab less RP land and have less power later, when we negotiate how to split the spoils of war.