Let us patiently explain to the infidels the error of their ways

[vulture]

ISTM that we have a small (possibly non-existent) window of opportunity to break Vox at the moment. Their core is more or less undefended, as far as we can tell (is it worth paying e.g. ND to establish an embassy with Vox and sending us the screenshot of their capitol?), since most of their defense was moving to D'ville to be upgraded to pikes, leaving (we assume) a smaller number of spearmen and warriors garrisoning their towns. This makes them very vulnerable until either a) they walk their units back up north to Elipolis, or b) they get them all into D'ville, and give it to another civ, transporting all the troops to their capitol (and it will take them 3 turns (7 tiles) to move from The Voice to Elipolis to strengthen it). Once Elipolis falls, they have to defend a greater number of cities, rather than focussing in one.

So, we have a small window of opportunity to take Elipolis, before we end up in a situation where 75% of their remaining troops are sitting there. What are the possibilities for getting a strong enough attack force into place to take Elipolis before they can reinforce it? Can we get troops into Inchon and take the hill? Or can we land a large enough force behind Elipolis to threaten it from the other side?


That one town makes a big difference to the difficulty of the rest of the war. If we can't take it before it is reinforced, we need to do another naval landing in their core, which would require a lot of troops.

[Aeson]

We can land next turn with what we have on the Galleys, and at least 2 units from Inchon as well (more with some galley swapping) though having at least a couple more Pikes in Inchon is probably a very good idea.

They will have at least a Warrior and probably 3 Spears (The two at E3 and if they moved the one from E63 to either E3 or E6 this turn and pop rush one in Elipolis next). The 3 Spears would be unfortified when we attack. They could possibly pop rush a 4th during the production phase too, and it would most likely be a Veteran.

We could do some Galley swapping and get all our attack forces in the area to land E7 next turn. The galleys

We'd probably have a good shot at taking Elipolis if we had 5 Med Inf and a Pike. Vox's main stacks would be 1, 2, and 3 turns removed from counterattacking if they continue back to their core though, so we probably couldn't hold Elipolis (without losing Inchon). An added danger is if Vox has several Immortals in Harry's Hideout or Beta by the Sea (or the tile imbetween it). I can't see why they'd put them there though, but it is something to think about.

If Vox uses its Galley to put a couple Pikes in Elipolis, we could always withdraw.

[vulture]

I don't think we need to hold Elipolis - only one out of Inchon and Elipolis is needed to control the bottleneck. We can either capture Elipolis and abandon Inchon, or the other way around (as the tactical situation dictates). ISTR that ideally we want a city on the hill between the two towns eventually, so whichever we want to keep will eventually up camp and move.

[Arrian]

Let's try it.

-Arrian

[Harovan]

I think it's a good idea. How are our chances to hold Inchon without these reinforcements? Are there forces approaching from north? if so, they will probably hurl them back, if they see our ships bypass Inchon.

[vulture]

The rule of thumb I got from my earlier testing was that each pike in Inchon was worth 2 immortals (1 regular and 1 veteran). With about a 2:1 immortal : pike ratio, we are favourites to hold Inchon, although not huge favourites. I'd like to keep at least a 95% chance of holding Inchon for the first round of attacks, but Vox doesn't have a huge stack next to the town just yet IIRC (I don't have the save), so we have some leeway to bring in reinforcments next turn for Inchon as well.

With Aeson's guesses for Eli's defences (3 spears, 1 warrior), 5 MI would have a 94% chance of taking the town (assuming 1 of the spears is regular) - add in an extra spearman from HH (if there is one) and that goes down to 67% (with an extra 23% chance that we win 4 out of 5 battles, putting us in a good position for the following turn).

[zeit]

Have you considered Elipolis' walls in your estimates?

If not, and this changes our odds considerably, we could consider landing our troops on their core, perhaps on the hill near Beta'?

Perhaps they were foolish enought to leave it clear...

We could check this out with the galley that was used for the WC's landing.

[Aeson]

For reference, Vox's N Inchon stack: Three cats, a vet pike, a regular pike, three healthy vet immortals, and a wounded vet immortal.

If we could hold Elipolis against this for one turn, the game is basically over for Vox.

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If they pop rush a Spear in their production phase (they might not think of it, or might not have the units being produced soon enough in the turn to do it, and they might finish a Spear regularly) that would give them at least 4 Vet Spears though. If we notice a pop rush, unit upgrades (Spears to Pikes) or a Galley landing of Pikes, we can abort, probably not losing any units in the attempt. If not...

Taking Elipolis would allow us the possibility to cross our Galleys over to the east side, and make a strike at The Voice or Miller Town on turn 4 (landing on turn 3).

We could rush a Galley in Monsoon this turn and have 6 more offensive units that could cross through Elipolis (galley hop on turn 2) before Vox had a chance to attack the city with any of the stacks near Inchon. The next turn we land those 6 units and a couple Pikes next to the Voice...

If we can hold Elipolis against the N stack near Inchon for one turn, it really helps. Then, disband the city, and pillage the road, we can then hit Wittlich and/or Miller Town before they can respond as well. We could move most of our Pikes from Inchon into Elipolis, and Vox wouldn't be able to get through on the first turn or two for sure, and maybe not at all, while our units ravage their core.

It's a legitimate shot at ending this thing, as Vox could be down to 2-3 cities (Dissidentville doesn't really count at this point), no Harbor (or one that isn't connected to the other cities), no Iron, and probably thinking about disbanding their remaining cities and taking a city on Lego or something like that.

[zeit]

Have you conidered the Voxian walls in your estimates, as they have newly built wall up there...

I think it posese us some problem, isn't it?

Perhaps we could do the ravaging and pillaging thing without taking Elipolis? This would be problematic, as they could shift their units back home while we can do nothing to stop them...

[zeit]

I got this idea.

I thought that If the Voxian don't block the path- that we could add the WC's into this as well. By moving them 9-8 on the next turn- makes Vox choose between attacking them, or letting them attack. Together they are worth one elite Med. Inf, except that they could take two units. We need every offensive unit in range for this, don't you think?

[Aeson]

The walls mean their Spears will be defense 3 (unfortified). If they build/poprush a Spear, that one would be defense 3.5.

It makes it rather close on whether we can take the city or not with 5 Med Inf. (do we even have 5 Med Inf though? not sure what we have in Inchon at this point). I'd expect we don't take the city actually (they probably have several Warriors in the city), but we would kill a few units, and maybe get lucky and end this war.

We almost surely lose any landing party we get up to their core once their stacks make it back. Our galleys can beat their stacks to Elipolis, BbtS, and Wittlich. Any of those would be decent targets for a strike like this. Elipolis is probably their best defended city at this point, and their most crucial. Wittlich would be very nice to take out as it's their only shot at Iron for at least a couple more turns, but is also on a Hill, and could very well have Walls the turn after we land (probably not as many possible Spears defending though).

The only way to do significant 'easy' damage is to keep ahead of Vox's stacks IMO. Otherwise it's going to be a long, tough fight to break through Elipolis. If we're really lucky, Vox will mass to attack Inchon where they're at now and give us enough time to make a killing blow.

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Actually, looking at the map, we can land at Miller Town 4 the same time we could land at Wittlich, probably without being seen on the way. They'd need a unit at BbtS 1 or 2 to see us. Vox's N stack would be at Elipolis 78, and wouldn't be able to counterattack if we took Miller Town or Wittlich. If we take Miller Town, and rush a Temple, that would allow us to hit Wittlich the next turn too, abandoning Miller Town, as it would probably be taken back anyways.

Wittlich would be the best place to try and make a stand too, as we'd be on Hills and probably survive the first wave of Vox's attack. Our next group of Galleys could reinforce the city before the second wave hit.

[Aeson]

Do we have any WC's in Inchon right now?

[nbarclay]

I just checked the turn thread and the save should be waiting for me when I get home in a few minutes. If anyone has any last-minute thoughts on what to do in the production phase, let me know. Did we reach a final decision that we want walls in Inchon if Vox looks like they're massing to attack it?

[Theseus]

Yes on walls in Inchon, por favor.

vulture, I *gotta* ask... you're Army, yes? I'm Marines. Explains a lot. /jk

[ManicStarSeed]

By all means, take Elioplis.. I believe that it has been decided that Vox is to be eliminated. The sooner the better. This window of opportunity is closing quick. After this the fight will become bloody.

Mss