Vox's iron colony

[nbarclay]

Current Gathering Storm Deployments, as of the end of 490 BC:

Western Theater:
- Four pikes on Arashi 9
- Six pikes at Arashi 4
- One pike, one vet MedInf, 3 regular MedInfs, 1 injured elite WC, Grog on Wheels, and four regular WCs in Arashi.
- One slightly wounded elite WC at Arashi 1.
- Three vet MedInfs (two slightly injured) and seven cats in Tempest.
- An uninjured vet MedInf and a settler at Tempest 1.
- A slightly injured vet MedInf at Tempest 2.

Total: Eleven pikes, six vet MedInfs, three regular MedInfs, one elite* WC, two elite WCs, four regular WCs, and seven cats (although the cats will probably be moving to the east before too long).

Inchon Units: 6 pikes, 3 vet MedInfs, settler.

Left after Inchon: five pkes, three vet MedInfs, three regular MedInfs, an elite* WC, two elite WCs, and four regular WCs. We'll also get a new vet MedInf from Bolderberg by then.

Eastern Theater
- Two regular MedInfs in Sandstorm
- A pike at EotS 8-7
- Two pikes and a vet MedInf in Hurricane
- Four pikes, a vet MedInf, and a WC on Sandstorm 6
- Four pikes, a vet MedInf, and a horseman on Hurricane 8

Additional production before (and counting the turn that) a 5-turn (counting this one) Inchon departs:
- A galley, a pike, and a settler in Hurricane
- Three pikes or two pikes and a horseman in EotS. (A pike completed in EotS the turn of departure can't participate in the action immediately.)

Forces to trap the five immortals:
- Three pikes
- One vet MedInf

Inchoff forces:
- Five pikes
- One settler

The combination of Inchoff and the blocking maneuver would require us to pull two pikes off the mountains and replace them with the regular MedInfs currently in Sandstorm.

Total GS units:
- One settler
- 11 workers
- 1 vet horseman
- 22 vet pikemen
- 7 catapults
- 6 galleys
- 8 WCs (including one elite* and two elite)
- 14 MedInfs (five regular and nine vet)

[nbarclay]

Known Voxian Deployments, as of the end of 490 BC:

Western front:
- One vet Immortal showing in Dissidentville
- One regular immortal at D1
- One regular immortal at D2
- One regular immortal and one regular spearman at D12
- One vet spearman, two vet immortals, and one regular immortal at D22
- One regular spearman at Arashi 8-9

Eastern front:
- One vet spear on the iron colony
- Two regular spears on adjacent mountains
- One vet spear on the mountain between the colony cluster and the chain by Hurricane.
- Two vet and three regular immortals near Sandstorm.

Total (if I'm adding correctly):
- Five vet immortals
- Seven regular immortals
- Three vet spearmen
- Four regular spearmen

We also have recent sightings on two additional regular immortals: one 4 from their colony and one at D87.

[Theseus]

Excellent, thanks.

Now how does the timing work? Can't we plink the eastern Immortals 2-3 times before the main action goes down? And also, if I'm counting right (would you mind turning on the grid?), WCs can get to D-ville in 4 turns?

Do we want to put a Pike or two in Monsoon, JIC?

[nbarclay]

Voxian strength estimate:

I set up a scenario mirroring our units, Vox's known strength, and a strength in immortals equivalent to Vox's injured immortals as of the point where we became strong relative to them. If I add 13 regular immortals to Vox's known strength, we are still strong relative to Vox. If I add 14, we become average. So Vox's strength in units we do not see is presumably somewhere between the equivalent of 13 and 14 regular immortals. (Note that a vet counts as 4/3 of a regular.)

Realistically, one or two immortals' worth of that strength is presumably tied up in warriors that haven't been upgraded yet and/or in spearmen we don't see. So figure maybe about eleven immortals, mostly regulars, that we don't see right now (assuming my methodology was sound, of course). And two of those have been spotted recently, one near the iron colony and one in a jungle 8-7 from Dissidentville.

Edit: I just realized I forgot Vox's galley in my scenario, not that I would expect that to make much difference.

[Arrian]

Thanks for the order of battle breakdowns, Nathan. That helps quite a bit.

-Arrian

[vulture]

BTW, if this info is still relevant:

If Vox has 2 vet and 3 regular immortals on Hurricane 88, and we drop 2 vet pikes on the moutains 8 of them to cut off their retreat, they have a 62% chance of killing both pikes , and there is only a 14% chance that both pikes survive. On average they lose 2.7 units, so it is slightly to our advantage, but as Aeson says, there is a fairly good chance that we just lose 2 pikes and they lose nothing.

With 3 pikes, the chance of them taking the mountain drop to 18% - that third pike makes a huge difference to the odds, and bumps their average losses up to 3.5 units (and bring out average losses from 1.5 to 1.4).

Add in a med inf as well, and they are down to 3%, and on average we lose 1 pike (0 or 2 also quite possible) - but they lose 3-5 immortals (4 being most popular). And we are better placed for the follow up battles of course, with the huge stacks just south of them able to kill the stragglers.

[Shiber]

Thanks Vulture!

How many turns until the borders of Sandstorm expand?

My computer is capable of running Civ3 now. I checked, and they should expand in 410 BC.

[Shiber]

Who might sell iron to Vox?
(and how we can prevent that from happening)

Lego Land
They have one visible iron source and may have more, but they are out of the picture. Currently trade is only possible over coastal tiles.

Glory of War
They have no iron at all (meaning that they must be planning to go to war with ND vs. RP, where ND will provide their iron), but they have a trade route with ND and a harbor.

Neu Demogyptica
They have two sources of iron, but no harbors or coastal cities. They have a trade route with GoW and can use GoW's harbor, provided that they're at peace.
If ND decides to provide iron to Vox, we may have to declare war in-game (a declaration accompanied by a diplomatic message stating that we are only doing this to prevent them from providing iron to Vox). Of course, they might be busy warring together with GoW against RP by then, and their two iron sources would be tied up (one for themselves, another one for GoW).

Role Play
RP has one connected iron source, and another one in close proximity to their cultural borders but not connected. They have a harbor.
However, if they get into war with ND, their coastal trade route to Vox would be blocked off by ND's cultural borders extending into the sea and they will be unable to sell iron to Vox.

Anyway, this is all still a long way off. There are several turns to go before Inchon begins, and then Vox will have to build a harbor (which would take time with their pop-rushed, though mined, towns) and would tax them by 80 shields (the cost of a harbor). By the time that they're done, we'll have galleys blocking the coastal trade route between Vox and Bob, and if anyone will be giving iron to Vox, we'll know through the diplomatic screens. Then we may have no choice but to analyze the situation with regard to in-game limitations, figure out who might be selling iron to Vox and declare war on them to activate a blockade with our ships.

[DeepO]

Shiber, one comment (nice analysis otherwise): any civ could also trade their only source away to Vox, even for a few turns if necessary.

Further, I'm not certain on Lego: I thought we could trade with them, if they build a harbor in Panama(?), and we build a harbor somewhere. I thought that with the Lighthouse, we can trade over sea tiles, just not over ocean tiles... and if memory serves me right, there are only coastal&sea tiles separating us from Lego.

DeepO

[Shiber]

One source: yes, that's true. It doesn't change things though (unless I'm missing something), but it's worth mentioning.
RP is the only civ that might do that (the only civ on Bob with exactly one source of iron), and I actually get the feeling that they'd be more than glad to. It'll allow them to build warriors/spearmen/horsemen for a few turns while their only source of iron is in Vox's hands and then declare war in-game, sign peace and upgrade the obsolete units that they've built; all this without severing any road tiles, thus wasting worker turns.

Lego: the fact that we have the lighthouse doesn't change anything. Perhaps we can trade with Lego (after building the necessary harbors), but they certainly can't trade with Vox and vice versa.

[Theseus]

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

We have the Lighthouse!! Why have we not built a Harbor??!!

[Shiber]

We have noone to trade with.
We may want to sell iron to GoW later, but right now we only have one source.
You make a good point though. I'd like to see us build a harbor next and start building some veteran galleys (which are ideal for blocking the trade route to Vox). More bang for our buck.

[Theseus]

Would not luxury trading re-open diplomatic relations?

[Shiber]

Good point.

[nbarclay]

The reason we haven't built a harbor is that it would cost the equivalent of two MedInfs, almost three pikes, or four WCs. We're only now reaching a point where accepting such a cost would be practical, and even now, we can probably make excellent use of the extra units to help take out Vox's core faster after Inchon.

On the other hand, I would not be at all averse to using gold to rush a harbor in one of our desert cities once we can afford it. Those cities need harbors for growth, and they lack production to build all the improvements they need themselves.