GoW- Diplomacy comments #2

[DeepO]

To me it's very clear that Lego knows exactly where the GoW fleet is: why else would they pillage precisely that one fort under stress, and none other. GoW has been followed by a couple of subs for several turns now, I gather. Plus, what we know of the Lego forces, and how much we know they've got fits perfectly with them blocking 2 more cities. Of course these are Jackson and Dye Fields...

I do hope GoW sends us their map, and the screenhshots they got from ND.

Also, has GoW answered on the question yet of paying us for computers within 3 turns?

DeepO

[Cort Haus]

No, they wanted to wait to see how this turn went first before negotiating for Computers - presumably to calculate economic requirements on the basis of how their move goes.

[DeepO]

Ah, okay. We should try to negotiate before we get the save from Legoland, though, in case they want us to send them computers next turn.

DeepO

[Cort Haus]

Message sent.

[Cort Haus]

MZ is playing their turn, and is considering holding back 20 tanks from the landing so their marines take the punishment from Lego's tanks instead. He reckons Lego will hit them, not us. Sounds a decent idea, but obviously he's worried about not having enough units left to defend the settler. Any suggestions?

http://www.apolyton.net/forums/showthread.php?postid=3453374#post3453374

[vmxa1]

It looks like a close call to me, but would be inclined to go with the last option. The one that leaves 32 tanks. Lets see what others feel.

[Krill]

I thourght that tanks defended before marines? If so, it would be best for them to keep as many tanks back as possible, without there being a good chance of the whole stack falling...I'd go with the latter option as well, but that's is just me.

[Aeson]

This is for flat land... if GoW can land on a Hill all the better. (can't find the screenshot of GoW's side yet)

With all Tanks on Transports.

68 Artillery, 40 Infantry
Odds to hit 52.2%
Expected 35.496 Infantry hit by Artillery. 18.52 are hit for 2 HP.
4 4/4 Infantry
17 3/4 Infantry (Tanks defend first, Marines hidden)
18 2/4 Infantry (Tanks and Marines defend first)

~40 Tanks. 4 4/4 Infantry.
Odds to kill 69.6%.
5 Tanks to get around the remaining 4/4 Infantry. 1 of these Infantry will survive but probably be 2/4 or 1/4.

~35 Tanks. 17 3/4 Infantry.
Odds to kill 81%.
20 Tanks to get around the remaining 3/4 Infantry. Now the Marines would be exposed.

~15 Tanks. 40 Marines.
Odds to kill 88%.
Odds to blitz kill 61%.
15 Tanks can't kill the 40 Marines. At the very worst they can kill 30, but more likely it will be 20. Very doubtful that Lego will blitz with all their Tanks, some will be low HP after the first battle, and even if they win they leave their Tanks exposed.

13 Cavalry. 10-20 Marines.
Odds to kill 44.8%
Lego is better off seeding Tank builds for later with their Cavalry. Even if they attack and Lego was down to 10 Marines at this point, some Marines would survive. But Lego could get pretty much through the Marines.

I don't think Lego will attack with Infantry vs the 19 2/4 Infantry, but who knows. Would take them probably 30 Infantry to get through the remaining Marines and Infantry. That leaves them not a lot of defense against us. 60 Infantry, no Artillery support, and since they blitzed with their Tanks and attacked with their Cavalry, they end up with nothing else to fight us with. They'd need 15 Infantry in Tip, 15 in Quanto, leaving them only 30 in Abilene (only 10 of which would have fortification bonus), which means we take the city.

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If GoW can chain 8 more Infantry over their stack is pretty much sure to stand. If not, I think ~10 Tanks need to stay. Not so much to save the stack, but to keep Lego from attacking with Cavalry and Infantry.

[Cort Haus]

Thanks, Aeson, I've sent that to MZ. I'll sort out a screen shot from our save.

[Cort Haus]

[Cort Haus]

They're heading for Dye Fields 88 as DeepO's report suggested so they can threaten two cities. MZ was considering pillaging the tiles around to prevent Lego blitzing.

[Aeson]

Lego doesn't have to worry about blitz because they will have a 1 tile culture buffer anywhere.

GoW could cut the roads to be safer, but I'd prefer they don't. Lego probably will cut the roads around GoW themselves and us to stop us from using Settlers to extend the range of our Tanks. Make Lego do it, as it keeps off quite a few of their units.

[DeepO]

One major thing: They can land everything, or they can land all their marines and only a couple of tanks. However, they're best bet for survival is if they threaten 3 cities. They are in position to split their navy into 2 parts, and set up a chaining line to Zargonia.

Lego won't risk too much with their tanks, if they consider them necessary defenders. We've seen a couple of reg units, a reg tank is better used for defense against marines in a coastal metro, than it is used offensively against infs. (I think). We most likely will threaten 3 cities, if GoW can also set this up, Lego will spread part of that defense.

As to the arts: worst case scenario would be if Lego uses all its artillery on one side, however would they risk it? We have laid some juicy targets for them, in the form of 11 transports and a 2/4 DD. If they want to sink most of those ships, they will need art support, as otherwise they are going to lose 1/4 BBs to transports.

My guess is, that they won't use all their art on one spot. Too dangerous...

DeepO

[DeepO]

Originally posted by Aeson
Lego doesn't have to worry about blitz because they will have a 1 tile culture buffer anywhere.

GoW could cut the roads to be safer, but I'd prefer they don't. Lego probably will cut the roads around GoW themselves and us to stop us from using Settlers to extend the range of our Tanks. Make Lego do it, as it keeps off quite a few of their units.

Totally agree. Every unit used to pillage, won't damage our invasion forces (that badly)

DeepO

[Aeson]

I'm not so sure GoW is best to threaten 3 cities. Lego could destroy their Tanks completely, in which case they only threaten 3 cities with Marines. If they threaten 2 cities with Tanks, Lego needs more defenders than defending 3 cities vs Marines.