OFFICIAL: What to use the GL on.

[UnOrthOdOx]

Options:

Build Sun Tzu
Wait and build Sistine Chapel
Wait for other reason (specify below)
Build Army
Build Forbidden Palace
Abstain (have him harvest bananas)

This poll will close in 4 days.

[UnOrthOdOx]

This is in response to this thread:

http://apolyton.net/forums/showthread.php?s=&threadid=62146

Aggie admitted the other polls were unofficial, therefore and official poll should be created to interpret the will of the people.

[=OttomusCeasar=]

Re: OFFICIAL: What to use the GL on.

Originally posted by UnOrthOdOx
This poll will close in 4 days.

So, does he get to frolic with the interns for 4 days?

It seems like the poll is somewhat useless to those who want to use Ramses now.

[UnOrthOdOx]

Waiting 5 turns will not make much difference. We will not lose Sun Tzu, and we only lose a REMOTE possibility of a second Leader. It is better to determine the will of the people than to procede without their voice.

[notyoueither]

Unfortunately, the best solution now would be to not click 'end turn' until this poll is done. There is no other way of satisfying all parties. Which of course will annoy those who wanted to play 5 turns today.

[BigFurryMonster]

Waiting is the LAST thing we'll want to do. Especially if it's because we can't decide fast enough.

There has been a lot of debate and (unofficial) polling going on, so I think a decision should be made based on these.

(what I REALLY think is to let poor Ramses decide for himself...)

[adaMada]

I think, reading from the discussion in the other thread, the will of the people is Sun Tzu... it seemed to have the widest spread support, and I think if someone went through and counted statements of support, they'd find that Sun Tzu's would win.

Having said that, I think we could wait a few turns without much harm... as UnOrthO said, the chances of us getting another leader in the next turn is very remote.

-- adaMada

[UnOrthOdOx]

That is possible. (though technically against the CoL)

I could petition a MOD to change it to a three day poll, even, to speed things along?

[Aro]

I think it's better cancel the chat. Those barracks will help us a lot now.

[DeathByTheSword]

we as one of the strongest and with the most military genuisses in our mids have only one simple thing to do. PAY TRIBUTE to the GREATEST of military minds. I hope that none of the SMC see this as a insult, the have done great jobs, but Sun Tzu will never find his math. so i say build the Sun Tzu

[=OttomusCeasar=]

Originally posted by adaMada
as UnOrthO said, the chances of us getting another leader in the next turn is very remote.

-- adaMada

We have a 33% chance during the next 5 turns.

[UnOrthOdOx]

I assure you it is NOT 33%. The % is does not figure all your units in. It is 1/16 (without the epic, 1/12 with) per unit, you cannot add them up to make it higher. We will have a 1/16 chance for each of those battles. 5 you say? So we have a 5/80 chance=6.25%, not 33%.

[=OttomusCeasar=]

Originally posted by UnOrthOdOx
I assure you it is NOT 33%. The % is does not figure all your units in. It is 1/16 (without the epic, 1/12 with) per unit, you cannot add them up to make it higher. We will have a 1/16 chance for each of those battles. 5 you say? So we have a 5/80 chance=6.25%, not 33%.

Blah, I say 33%. It's not my number someone else came up with it but it supports my goals!

I think it was OPD and Aggie that came up with the 33%.

[BigFurryMonster]

Actually - you can't do that math trick either. It would imply that no matter the amount of battles, the chance would be 1/16 (=5/80).

You can come up with the correct formula in the following way: every battle, the chance of NOT getting a Leader is 15/16. The chance of this occurring 5 times in a row is: (15/16)^5, or 759375/1048576 = (about) 72%. So, the chance of getting AT LEAST ONE Leader is 100% - 72% = 28%

[Togas]

Originally posted by UnOrthOdOx
I assure you it is NOT 33%. The % is does not figure all your units in. It is 1/16 (without the epic, 1/12 with) per unit, you cannot add them up to make it higher. We will have a 1/16 chance for each of those battles. 5 you say? So we have a 5/80 chance=6.25%, not 33%.

sigh...

I'm no math wiz, but this is elementary math. If the odds are 1/16, that means that you should get a GL once every 16 wins. The math works like this: let's say we get 8 wins with an elite units. 8 times the 1/16 chance --> (1/16)*(8/1) = 8/16 = 1/2.

Now I'm not sure how many wins we're going to get in the next turn, but it's certain that the more you win, the lower the odds that you get a GL.

Frankly, I'm in the VAST minority that would like to see a FP built with the GL (and I'm the only one), but I understand the point of those who want Sun Tzu NOW as opposed to later. It doesn't so much have to do with that wonder over another, it has to do with using the leader ASAP, so as to increase our chances of another appearing.

--Togas