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Last chat of the 3rd Administration -
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The only thing I would like to stress is that the second poll, which may or may not be held up as a guide as to the wishes of the people, is in no way accurate and should not be used as such.
The choices were Army or ST. Army or wonder. If the decision is wonder, then what strategy for a wonder? That is unaddressed.
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If you want this to be "a Democracy Game" I think there are only two options.
Postpone the chat until the end of the poll to clarify what the people want to do.
OR
Use him for Sun Tzu as that appeared to be the more popular choice. I'm not going to say building Sun Tzu was what the majority wanted, but most people wanted to build the Sistine Chapel AND wanted to use Ramses immediately and we can't do both.
I say either we all agree or we hold it in reserve for 5 turns. I really want the game to go on. If we lose Sun Tsu and sistine, then we use our leader for an army. This is unlikely but possible. The odds are still in our favor it will be there in 5 turns. We will send 4/5 elites into battle in about 3 turns so we have roughly a 1/3 chance of getting a leader this turnchat. But that also means we have 2/3 chance of not. But hopefully me,MWIA and Godking can all agree then we'll do it now.
Aggie
The 5th President, 2nd SMC and 8th VP in the Civ3 Demogame. Also proud member of the GOW team in the PTW game. Peace through superior firepower.
Originally posted by Aggie
I posted this in the GL thread, by mistake
I say either we all agree or we hold it in reserve for 5 turns. I really want the game to go on. If we lose Sun Tsu and sistine, then we use our leader for an army. This is unlikely but possible. The odds are still in our favor it will be there in 5 turns. We will send 4/5 elites into battle in about 3 turns so we have roughly a 1/3 chance of getting a leader this turnchat. But that also means we have 2/3 chance of not. But hopefully me,MWIA and Godking can all agree then we'll do it now.
Aggie
We have a 1/3 chance of getting a GL this chat.
IIRC you can only have one GL at any one time so just waiting should not be an option.
I say we should suspend this chat and risk the fury of the courts for violating the very amendment I implimented. It is the only way all side can voice their opinion, and have it done officially. I can ask for the poll to be changed to a three day limit to speed the next turns play should we suspend todays turns.
One who has a surplus of the unorthodox shall attain surpassing victories. - Sun Pin You're wierd. - Krill
Originally posted by BigFurryMonster
What makes a poll "official" or "unofficial", anyway ?
Official polls must have certain rules apply. Open for at least 3 days, unbiased first post, options clear...All polls are considered official unless otherwise stated, or declared invalid by the court. Expect that last part to change, though, with the new constitution.
One who has a surplus of the unorthodox shall attain surpassing victories. - Sun Pin You're wierd. - Krill
Originally posted by UnOrthOdOx
I change my stand:
I say we should suspend this chat and risk the fury of the courts for violating the very amendment I implimented. It is the only way all side can voice their opinion, and have it done officially. I can ask for the poll to be changed to a three day limit to speed the next turns play should we suspend todays turns.
Bhah just build the damn Zu.
The judges will probably screw you if you don't play the turns what with the changing administrator amendment.
At what time is the chat scheduled? The GMT notation confuses me a bit. Is Europe +1 or +2 from it?
(to answer: check out the time near my name in the left panel and compare it to your time)
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You can come up with the correct formula in the following way: every battle, the chance of NOT getting a Leader is 15/16. The chance of this occurring 5 times in a row is: (15/16)^5, or 759375/1048576 = (about) 72%. So, the chance of getting AT LEAST ONE Leader is 100% - 72% = 28%
It remains 1/16 for each battle. 5 battles will be 5/80, not 5/16...
Now who's distorting math.
The more Elites you have winning battles, the better chance you have at getting a GL not the opposite.
If this Elite fails to generate a GL it does not decrease the odds of the next one. Which is exactly what your numbers suggest.
Five successful attacks are 5 1/16 shots at a GL or 5/16 (5 chances out of 16) by sheer mathmatics it does come out to a roughly 33% chance of generating a GL. They are independent however as 16 attacks is not a guaranteed GL but the statistical odds are that you should have a GL after 16 attacks.
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