Should we allow unofficial opinion "gallup" surveys ?

[Nubclear]

Originally posted by LordImpact
I think Tassadar means "billy bob" will vote for the majority as seen in a pre election poll when he votes in the actual election

Yep, that is correct.

[Verto]

Oh well, this is where German hardhead kicks in.

I'm right, you're wrong, and nothing will change this!

The superiority of stubborness....

If you can't win, withdraw into a false reality...

But, if candidate A has a majority in a pre-election poll, that means he will win, unless people switch sides to B or don't vote at all.

Is this where we begin anew about pre-poll-polls? Fun.

[Nubclear]

Originally posted by Verto
Oh well, this is where German hardhead kicks in.

I'm right, you're wrong, and nothing will change this!

The superiority of stubborness....

If you can't win, withdraw into a false reality...

But, if candidate A has a majority in a pre-election poll, that means he will win, unless people switch sides to B or don't vote at all.

Is this where we begin anew about pre-poll-polls? Fun.

But not everyone will vote in a pre election poll. And possibly not everyone will vote truthfully. Or during the tail end of a preelection poll Candidate A screws up. There are just so many possibilities to consider that would alter votes that I think it's just better not dealing with them.

Down with the gallup polls!

[LordImpact]

I second that Tassadar

[Verto]

There are some "disclaimers" that are already in place, and more that can be implemented.

Example:

"This is an UNOFFICIAL pre-election poll."

"This poll does not necessarily reflect the opinions of all the people of Apolytonia."

"The results of this poll are not conclusive, and are subject to change. They do not necessarily reflect the results of the upcoming OFFICIAL election."

"This poll is not meant to change/alter/bias your views and opinions. It is meant as a place for you to express them, not hide them."

I CAN go on, if you'd like.

Some could say there are so many possibilities to consider and many tasks that must be performed when having to deal with electing officials, and making sure everything is constitutional etc, that maybe we should crown our president life-long ruler.

[Spiffor]

Verto : two RL example (sorry, they're both French, but that's the country I know best)

1995 : candidate Balladur was considered an absolute winner in the polls. His rival from the same party, candidate Chirac, had tremendous problems, and epoeple asked his seriously to retire, so that Balladur has more than 50% by the first round.
Chirac progressed slowly in the polls. As soon as he was slightly ahead of Balladur, his popularity in polls increased bigtime. Why ? Because people felt having Balladur winning was not a fatality.

2002 : candidate Le Pen starts his campaign with 7% in polls. He stagnates until last week before the election. The, Le Pen is in fashion, he climbs in the polls dramatically. People have no shame to vote for him... And because many people say "Le pen is good" in the polls, many undecided people think he's a worthy choice (I know personaly some people who thought like that). But the polls gave Jospin and Chirac still ahead of Le Pen, that's why some Jospin's voters voted for "alternate" candidates (I think you call them Naders). Result : Le Pen did make it to the second round.

I agree surveys aren't the only ones to skew the results, but they participate to it, and importantly. Surveys hurt freedom of thought much worse than campaigns : surveys adress themselves to human gregarious instict rather than human intelligence.

[Verto]

I'll give you another example.

Ronald Reagon. First 1980's election, he remained behind, all the polls and liberal media ppl said he would lose. He wins. Why? Because the pollsters didn't call everyone. The polls didn't represent everyone. I am not saying that these polls are concrete, "this is how the election is gonna go because the gallup poll said so".

They influence a persons vote just the same as a lot of threads. Now, we are arguing the same stuff, which isn't really getting us anywhere. The problem is, I can't stop.

[Nubclear]

Originally posted by Verto
He wins. Why? Because the pollsters didn't call everyone

Although you do have to consider that it is harder to contact over 100,000 people who use different mediums of entertainment and communication (Telephone, television, etc) than it is to contact 200 people (only about, maybe 100-150 are actually reading) who are all gathered in the same part of the same forum...

[Jon Shafer]

Originally posted by Verto
Ronald Reagon. First 1980's election, he remained behind, all the polls and liberal media ppl said he would lose. He wins. Why? Because the pollsters didn't call everyone. The polls didn't represent everyone. I am not saying that these polls are concrete, "this is how the election is gonna go because the gallup poll said so".

The possible voters in the opinion poll will represent 50%, 67% or maybe even 75% of all people who will vote. The differences between an opinion poll with 75% of the actual election and the election are much slimmer.

They influence a persons vote just the same as a lot of threads. Now, we are arguing the same stuff, which isn't really getting us anywhere. The problem is, I can't stop.

The threads are places where candidates say why they think they should be President. I will quote what Spiffor said to define this:

surveys adress themselves to human gregarious instict rather than human intelligence.

When people change their minds due to factual information in a thread, they're making an intelligent decision. Whey they look at a poll, they're not being influenced by something that requires an intelligent decision. Ick it's getting late, I don't think that made much sense.

And I know what you mean bout not being able to stop.

[Verto]

I didn't say WHY they weren't contacted - it's not important. What IS important is that the majority weren't contacted.

They are basing their predictions of the opinions of a couple thousand.

And people should be able to do that. Do you think you have the right or duty to protect everyone from everything that may or may not influence their views?

I think the problem is, I am an American,a Republican specifically, whose opinions about Big Brother(government).

As a citizen of Apolytonia, am I not allowed to have similar views? Can I need have opinions as such?


I am curious as to where all those in favor of getting rid of gallup polls are from.

[Nubclear]

Originally posted by Verto
I didn't say WHY they weren't contacted - it's not important. What IS important is that the majority weren't contacted.

But they weren't contacted. In Apolyton, it's very easy to contact people who are playing and following the Civ3 Demo Game because they're all right here. Most of them reading this very message.

And people should be able to do that. Do you think you have the right or duty to protect everyone from everything that may or may not influence their views?

No, but so far the people are saying they don't like prepolls. I specifically don't, but when combined with the greater collective (the people), then if the majority says NO, then its NO.

I think the problem is, I am an American,a Republican specifically, whose opinions about Big Brother(government).

Eh republican? I'm your friendly, local socialist.

[Verto]

Originally posted by Tassadar5000
No, but so far the people are saying they don't like prepolls. I specifically don't, but when combined with the greater collective (the people), then if the majority says NO, then its NO.

Eh republican? I'm your friendly, local socialist.

You really cannot say the people don't like pre-polls. Where have you come across this revelation? Did you count the posts and which had more in favor? The poll above, which as we have all said, is inconclusive, shows that people want polls, possibly with some restriction.

I like the word "collective"...like the people's collective farms? Some things really don't die...

I believe the root of this argument is not about overwhelming concern for Apolytonia, but a reflection of our RL opinions. I cannot say that my RL views are not influencing my opinions here, nor will I.

But that doesn't make my point invalid. Well, the solution is an OFFICIAL poll, whether or not the "gallup" polls should be allowed or not - I will accept the people's decisions, and that will be that.

And is it so easy to contact everyone? Have u ever tried contacting and getting a response from 200 people, many of whom do not actively participate in posts?

[Nubclear]

Originally posted by Verto


You really cannot say the people don't like pre-polls. Where have you come across this revelation? Did you count the posts and which had more in favor?

I'm just going by the polls.

The poll above, which as we have all said, is inconclusive, shows that people want polls, possibly with some restriction.

It shows that people dont want free polls, and out of those most dont want polls at all. However, again, group 2 is winning.

And is it so easy to contact everyone? Have u ever tried contacting and getting a response from 200 people, many of whom do not actively participate in posts?

I may not get a response, and as I said only about 100-150 are actually doing anything (maybe even less) however, just post and you can ensure it gets read by quite a few people, the people who need to read it.

If you try polling the entire US with a gallup, thats a different story. Not all of the people who need to read it are linked up to a central message board.

[Verto]

Well, first of all the poll should be fixed, because it has Group 1
Group 2
Group 2

So of course Group 2 is winning!

They should be three independent stances. The majority of the people who voted, according to the poll, want the polls, either left alone or with some restrictions.

What is a free poll?

[Nubclear]

Originally posted by Verto
Well, first of all the poll should be fixed, because it has Group 1
Group 2
Group 2

So of course Group 2 is winning!

Your right, so maybe we hsould just have yes or no or other. However, it does clearly say group 2, which gives me personally the impression that it's in a group.

. The majority of the people who voted, according to the poll, want the polls, either left alone or with some restrictions.

No, according to the poll itself the majority either want gallup polls left alone, or they dont want them at all. And if you count that it says GROUP 1/2, the majority don't want gallup polls at all or dont want a free poll (read below)

What is a free poll?

Sorry, just me being tired....According to me, a free poll is one that is unrestricted, that can be posted at any time.