AU 601: Nbarclius Caesar DAR 1

[Arrian]

Given that you cannot capture AI cities, wouldn't you want to build the FP pretty early just to grab the OCN bonus?

Where are you aiming at for the Palace jump? Viroconium seems a likely spot based on the screenshot, given its size and how many cities surround it. That would also give you a better shot at flipping Leptis Minor.

If you did that, a FP in the New Rome wouldn't be bad, actually...

Just thinking out loud.

-Arrian

[nbarclay]

I'd been planning on Lutetia (which is why I have an aqueduct build going there), but I may need to reconsider. I'm not going to end up with quite as much northern territory as I'd hoped to.

[nbarclay]

From the Praetorian Intelligence Agency:

Greetings, mighty Caesar. As you requested, we have conducted an analysis of the economic differences from 270 BC (when Greece was in Anarchy) to 250 BC (when Greece was emerged into Monarchy) in an effort to get some idea of Greece’s economic strength. In the tables below, the figures on the left are from 270 BC and those on the right from 250 BC. Note that the Roman figures are approximations because exact labor allocation records were not available.

GNP:

Rome 147/158 million
Second: 114/120 million
Third: 103/105 million
Fourth: 88/103 million
Fifth: 78/89 million
Sixth: 60/71 million
Seventh: 55/65 million
Eighth: 50/51 million

Mfg. Goods

Rome: 73/77 megatons
Second: 56/56 megatons
Third: 52/53 megatons
Fourth: 33/36 megatons
Fifth: 33/35 megatons
Sixth: 31/33 megatons
Seventh: 20/30 megatons
Eighth: --/29 megatons

Productivity

Rome: 223/247
Second: 171/176
Third: 164/161
Fourth: 115/149
Fifth: 113/132
Sixth: 97/108
Seventh 95/97
Eighth: 21/96

Based on this data, it is highly probable that in 250 BC, Greece was fourth in Productivity and somewhere in the 30-range pack in Mfg. Goods. Our best guess is that Greece is third or fourth in GNP, although it is not inconceivable that they could be second.

Your faithful servant,

Informius Maximus

[Solomwi]

From what data, pray tell, did the PIA arrive at its estimates?

[nbarclay]

When you're ahead of other civs, you can reduce your GNP, Mfg. Goods, and Productivity by taking laborers off tiles. (Just remember to put them back before you finish your turn!) The changes in rankings can tell you where the other civs are, although not which civ is in which place.

If I'm still in first place in GNP if I reduce my GNP to 120, but I'm in second if I reduce it to 119, I know my closest rival has a GNP of 120 (at which point we are tied for first). Similarly, if I'm fifth in Productivity at 108 but sixth at 107, I know the civ that's in sixth place in Productivity has a Productivity of 108. Fiddling around to pinpoint exactly where the changes occur is somewhat time-consuming, but in PBEM games, I like to do it to get an idea where I stand. And I've been known to do it occasionally in SP games too, although I don't do it anywhere near as much.

In some cases, you can also find out where civs that are just a little ahead of you are by seeing what happens with laborer assignments that get as much gold as possible or that get as much production as possible. But there's a limit to how mcuh can be done with that, so if another civ is very far ahead, there is no way to pin down exactly how far. (When Theseus entered his golden age, I found myself in that position, trailing but unable to tell by how much.)

One of the big puzzles is trying to figure out which civ is which. Normally, there isn't really a good way to do that. But when a civ is in anarchy, its Mfg. Goods drop to zero and its Productivity is clobbered by the need for a lot more entertainers (since military police and the luxury slider are both useless in anarchy).

Based on that, I know Theseus could not possibly have been in the top three in Mfg. Goods or Productivity while he was in anarchy. For Theseus to be second or third in those categories with his anarchy over, one of the other civs would have had to drop a huge amount at exactly the time Theseus came out of anarchy. That makes it highly improbable that he's second or third in Productivity, and essentially impossible that he's second or third in Mfg. Goods.

The GNP situation is a lot tricker because in anarchy, a civ does get its base GNP but does not get bonuses for libraries, marketplaces, etc. Further, Theseus has lots of libraries but probably no marketplaces, so his GNP would be a lot higher if he sets his science rate high than if he sets it lower. (Yes, buildings do affect the GNP figure on F11.) Nonetheless, it seems more likely to me that the second place civ went up from 114 to 120 than that it went down from 114 to 105. On the other hand, for Theseus to be below fourth, an AI would have had to jump from 88 or below to 103 or above. Thus, Theseus's being third or fourth in GNP seems like the most likely possibility, not that I'd bet my life on it or anything like that.

By the way, I wasn't paying attention in my original analysis but Egypt, Babylon, the Celts, and Carthage were in Republic while Theseus and I both chose Monarchy (thanks to how seriously nerfed Republic is in the AU Mod and how important military forces are going to be when and assuming we start sicking AIs on each other). That difference in governments gives those AIs relatively high GNPs compared with the size and level of development of their empires.

[nbarclay]

The Romans continued to send forth settlers to build new cities, but the world was starting to get crowded. In 250 BC, the Germans founded the city of Cologne, blocking off the sites of what were intended most likely to be the two northernmost Roman cities. Rome responded by immediately founding Nicomedia a lot closer to Jerusalem than was originally intended. The city of Seleucia followed in 210 BC with the goal of crowding the Carthaginian city of Oea, which Hannibal had founded 7-7-4 from Byzantium.

That left one more settler in the northern area looking for a place to call home, but that band of settlers had to wait for some Celtic and German forces to march through and get out of the way. Finally, in 150 BC, the city of Artaxata was founded. That completed the settling of Rome's homeland, aside from the plans to move the capital in a few turns. Until something changed as a result of war, cultural conversion, or settling islands, Rome would be an empire of twenty-two cities.

[Solomwi]

Ahhh, didn't think about knocking my own numbers down.

Brilliant!

[nbarclay]

In 70 BC, the city of Rome was abandoned and rebuilt one tile southeast ("3") of its original location (in order tobe able to work more water tiles later on). In the process, the capital was moved to the city of Lutetia. The Roman Empire was finally in the shape Caesar wanted it in to take, although it still had a lot of developing to do.

[nbarclay]

Interestingly, the palace jump had no significant short-term impact on the Roman Empire's finances.

[Arrian]

I would assume that's because the northwest of your empire, which should get a big boost from the palace move, is largely undeveloped. The cities in the south/east are better developed, and most likely all have courthouses, so their losses are mitigated.

You should still do quite well once you develop the northwest territories some

-Arrian

[nbarclay]

I've never had any real doubt that the palace move would be beneficial in the long term (at least assuming I survive reasonably intact for the long term). I'd just hoped that I would start getting my payoff immediately instead of having to wait for it.

[nbarclay]

When the year 10 BC rolled around, and with it the end of the agreement for Rome and Greece not to enlist allies against each other, Caesar got really nervous. But the time passed and the Greek leader showed no interest in starting an immediate war.

In AD 50, Caesar's researchers pulled a coup by being first in the world to discover Monotheism. A trade to Egypt brought the Romans knowledge of Feudalism and Engineering, taking the Romans from being one technology behind the Greeks to being two technologies ahead. (As suspected, Greece got Engineering as its free technology.)

With research into Monotheism completed, Caesar ordered research suspended (aside from a couple scientists) in order to rush the completion of three libraries to help in the culture war with Carthage. Leptis Minor's cultural borders had recently expanded, and Caesar wanted to shift the cultural balance in that area in his favor. Two libraries were rushed in AD 70, and a third in AD 90. Then Caesar started saving gold for a sprint in researhing either Theology or Chivalry; he hadn't entirely made up his mind yet as to which.

Also in AD 70, the Romans sold Monotheism to Germany for winse, 55 gold, and three gold per turn and Feudalism to Carthage for gems and three gold. The addition of a fourth and fifth luxury allowed Rome to reduce the luxury slider from ten percent to zero. (That situation was helped by military police and by having a couple cities or so use specialists.)

In the meantime, Son of Grog, the great warrior who had discovered Egypt, Babylon, Greece, and Persia, was poking around inside Persia thanks to a Right of Passage agreement. And the entire Roman Navy - consisting of a single galley - was out circumnavigating the Pangea and. after having started off on a northerly course, was approaching Babylonian waters.

[Arrian]

Good diplomacy, getting Theseus to agree to play your game, essentially. The more time you have to build up, the worse it's gonna be for him.

If I ever was silly enough to take you on in MP/PBEM, I'd think my only shot was hitting you early and disrupting your buildup.

-Arrian

[nbarclay]

In AD 250, the Romans were first with another technological breakthrough: Theology. Caesar traded the new knowledge to Egypt for Invention and 22 gold and to Persia (which was the technological leader, with Gunpowder) for 45 gold and 25 gold per turn.

In order to preempt Greece in case the Greek strategy was to research Theology and trade it for Feudalism (which they still did not have), Caesar went ahead and sold Theology to Carthage for 28 gold and to the Germans for 16. Since Babylon did not yet have Feudalism, there was no risk that Greece would trade them Theology for it, nor was there any pressing need to trade Theology to the Celts (whom the Greeks had still not met).

Another noteworthy event that occurred in AD 250 was a meeting between Rome's galley and a Greek galley off the western Babylonian coast. Assuming nothing happened to the Greek galley, Greece would finally make contact with the Celts in a few more turns.

[nbarclay]

Originally posted by Arrian
Good diplomacy, getting Theseus to agree to play your game, essentially. The more time you have to build up, the worse it's gonna be for him.

If I ever was silly enough to take you on in MP/PBEM, I'd think my only shot was hitting you early and disrupting your buildup.

The catch is, when Theseus and I first met, I was in a better situation to disrupt him than he was to disrupt me. The only one of my neighbors he'd met was the Germanic Tribes, and (1) they were already at war with Egypt, and so probably would not have sent any troops to attack me at least initially even if he'd made an alliance with them, and (2) for all he knew, the Celts or Carthaginians (neither of which he had met yet) might have been between the Germanic Tribes and me. In contrast, I would have had a clear shot at arranging for Babylon to attack him. And he might not have known I hadn't met Persia yet, in which case he would have had even more to fear in regard to what I could potentially do if we started arranging alliances against each other.

Thus, while enlisting allies against me early to disrupt my REX would certainly have been the right move all else being equal (especially considering that I was weak compared with him militarily at the time), Theseus had to contend with the problem that all else was not equal. That probably gave me a little extra leverage in arranging the diplomatic truce. (I'll be interested to read his DAR and see how close I am to right about that.)

From my perspective, the truce was more of a long-term investment. I had lots of land to expand into if I could do my expanding without having to worry about maintaining a strong military, and especially if I could get the AIs to waste some energy fighting each other. And I had a pretty good REXing machine set up to expand with.

Theseus's next problem came when he got in his scuffle with Persia and triggered a despotic GA. At that point, his best chance was if he could leverage his GA to pull ahead of me for the period between when he had his GA and when I would have mine. The right move would probably have been to focus on granaries in any core cities that didn't have them yet and on courthouses farther out. That would have helped him catch up in population and REXing and helped set up relatively strong future production.

In contrast, the strategy Theseus seems to have actually followed was centered around building lots and lots of libraries. That ceded me the advantages of a bigger empire and a larger population base, while Theseus's advantages were a stronger culture and a greater ability to leverage income from the population he did have for research. Given the nature of this particular game, I was able to leverage my advantages to gain additional advantages later on, while Theseus's advantages had relatively little investment value (at least in the absence of sufficient population to leverage libraries for a tech lead). As a result, when Theseus's GA ended, I had the advantage in size and economic strength and still had my GA in front of me.

At that point, none of the options Theseus had available was particularly attractive. If he enlisted AIs to attack me, he would have triggered my GA and I might well have used the attack as an opportunity to expand my territory still further by claiming a city or two from one or more of the AIs he sent against me. (Not to mention the fact that whoever declares war gives the other a happiness boost.) On the other hand, letting me trigger my GA at a time of my own choosing could cause even bigger problems for him.

Basically, the way I see it, Theseus has two options at this point. He can try to come up with some trick to take me by surprise and hope he can clobber me before I can react, or he can play a waiting game and hope I do something that gives him an opening. Time will tell which approach he'll choose.